Predictable Ucertainty In Economic Forecasting
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Predictable Uncertainty In Economic Forecasting
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Author : Neil R. Ericsson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Predictable Uncertainty In Economic Forecasting written by Neil R. Ericsson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Economic forecasting categories.
This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models, including static and dynamic models, and single-equation and multiple-equation models. Empirical models of the U.S. trade account, U.K. inflation, and U.K. real national income help clarify the issues involved.
Forecasting
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Author : Jennifer Castle
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2019-06-11
Forecasting written by Jennifer Castle and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-11 with Economic forecasting categories.
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve's record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Predictability And Nonlinear Modelling In Natural Sciences And Economics
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Author : J. Grasman
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Predictability And Nonlinear Modelling In Natural Sciences And Economics written by J. Grasman and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Mathematics categories.
Researchers in the natural sciences are faced with problems that require a novel approach to improve the quality of forecasts of processes that are sensitive to environmental conditions. Nonlinearity of a system may significantly complicate the predictability of future states: a small variation of parameters can dramatically change the dynamics, while sensitive dependence of the initial state may severely limit the predictability horizon. Uncertainties also play a role. This volume addresses such problems by using tools from chaos theory and systems theory, adapted for the analysis of problems in the environmental sciences. Sensitive dependence on the initial state (chaos) and the parameters are analyzed using methods such as Lyapunov exponents and Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in the structure and the values of parameters of a model is studied in relation to processes that depend on the environmental conditions. These methods also apply to biology and economics. For research workers at universities and (semi)governmental institutes for the environment, agriculture, ecology, meteorology and water management, and theoretical economists.
Comment On Economic Forecasting In A Changing World By Michael Clements And David Hendry
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Author : Neil R. Ericsson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Comment On Economic Forecasting In A Changing World By Michael Clements And David Hendry written by Neil R. Ericsson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Michael Clements and David Hendry make realistic assumptions about the nature of the economy and the models used to forecast it. Under those assumptions, Clements and Hendry clarify why forecasting models work when they do, and why they don't work when they don't. Their research also suggests how to improve the forecasting abilities of existing models.A taxonomy of the sources of forecast error underpins Clements and Hendry's analysis. In my comments, I summarize their taxonomy; illustrate several implications, including for predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty; and re-examine forecast criteria, focusing on how mean square forecast errors can mislead.This paper is a comment on Economic Forecasting in a Changing World by Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry which can be found at: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2209186" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2209186.
Predictable Ucertainty In Economic Forecasting
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Author : Ericsson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Predictable Ucertainty In Economic Forecasting written by Ericsson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with categories.
Uncertainty And Disagreement In Economic Forecasting
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Author : Stefania D'Amico
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Uncertainty And Disagreement In Economic Forecasting written by Stefania D'Amico and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
Forecasting In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Model Uncertainty
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Author : David E. Rapach
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2008-02-29
Forecasting In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
A Companion To Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-04-15
A Companion To Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Social Science categories.
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Economic Forecasting
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Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2016-04-05
Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Prediction Or Prophecy
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Author : Gregor Betz
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-10-06
Prediction Or Prophecy written by Gregor Betz and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?