Price Expectations In Rising Inflation
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Price Expectations In Rising Inflation
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Author : I. Visco
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2014-06-28
Price Expectations In Rising Inflation written by I. Visco and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-28 with Business & Economics categories.
It is claimed in this book that expectations should not necessarily be treated as unobservable variables and that there is much to be learned from survey data. A unique data set is examined, the output of surveys conducted twice a year since 1952, among informed Italian businessmen and economic experts. The predictive accuracy, rationality and determinants of inflation expectations are investigated, following an extensive analysis of measurement issues.The estimate of inflation expectations are evaluated for both wholesale and consumer price changes, comparing them with those held by respondents to other surveys for different countries and with the forecasts generated by alternative predictors of the inflation process. The expectations considered in the study are shown to be remarkably accurate, anticipating all major price changes, even if during the years of high and rising inflation which have followed the first oil crisis they appear to underestimate on a number of occasions the inflation rates actually experienced, as the alternative predictors also do.An accurate testing of the rational expectations hypothesis is conducted, rejecting it over the entire sample period but not for the period of mild, but variable inflation which preceded the first oil crises.It is shown that a mixed adaptive-regressive model, with both error-learning and return-to-normality components adapts very well to the data considered in this study and that inflation expectations are also influenced by an uncertainty component which affects the adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, regression towards normality is slowed down when industrial capacity is utilized above normal, and vice-versa. Many other issues such as the dispersion of individual answers, the problems of aggregation and measurement error are also considered and an extensive bibliography of other works where use is made of direct information on expectations, is included.
Inflation Expectations
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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-16
Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Price Expectations And The Behavior Of The Price Level
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Author : Robert M. Solow
language : en
Publisher: Manchester University Press
Release Date : 1969
Price Expectations And The Behavior Of The Price Level written by Robert M. Solow and has been published by Manchester University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1969 with Prices categories.
Inflation Pressures And Monetary Policy Options In Emerging And Developing Countries A Cross Regional Perspective
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Author : Mr.Luis Ignacio Jácome
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-01-01
Inflation Pressures And Monetary Policy Options In Emerging And Developing Countries A Cross Regional Perspective written by Mr.Luis Ignacio Jácome and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the monetary policy response to rising inflation in emerging and developing countries associated with the food and oil price shocks in 2007 and the first half of 2008. It reviews inflation developments in a sample of countries covering all regions and a broad range of monetary and exchange rate policy regimes; discusses the underlying causes of inflation; provides a synthesis of policy responses taken against the background of the conflicting objectives and trade-offs, the uncertainties regarding the nature of the shocks, and the additional challenges brought on by the global financial turmoil; and presents considerations for policy.
The Great Inflation
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Author : Michael D. Bordo
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2013-06-28
The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Commodity Prices And Inflation Expectations In The United States
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Author : Oya Celasun
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-03-01
Commodity Prices And Inflation Expectations In The United States written by Oya Celasun and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.
Essays On Inflation
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Author : Thomas M. Humphrey
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1980
Essays On Inflation written by Thomas M. Humphrey and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1980 with Inflation categories.
What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise And Drop Fast
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Author : Nicoletta Batini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-05-01
What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise And Drop Fast written by Nicoletta Batini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
After a long period of global price stability, in 2008 inflation increased sharply following unprecedented increases in the price of oil and other commodities, notably food. Although inflation remained lower and growth higher in inflation targeting countries than elsewhere, almost everywhere price stability seemed in jeopardy as consumer prices kept surging and central banks struggled to maintain expectations anchored. The rapid drop in energy and food prices that later accompanied the world slowdown helped avert the worse, but inflation stayed high in many inflation targeting countries. This paper uses a small open-economy DSGE model to design the correct monetary policy response to a protracted supply shock of the kind observed today, and explains how to choose optimal policy horizons under such shock. Using a version of the model with Kalman learning, the paper also evaluates the implications of a loss of target credibility, showing how rules must be adjusted when the authorities' commitment to low inflation has been eroded. The appropriate response to future evolutions of the price of oil, including to a large downward correction as recently observed, is also evaluated.
Inflation Expectations Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Remarks By Athanasios Orphanides And Lars E O Svensson
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Inflation Expectations Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Remarks By Athanasios Orphanides And Lars E O Svensson written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Inflation (Finance) categories.
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2003
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Author : Mark Gertler
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2004
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Business & Economics categories.
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.