Probability Choice And Reason
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Probability Choice And Reason
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Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2021-09-15
Probability Choice And Reason written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-15 with Mathematics categories.
Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.
Probability Choice And Reason
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Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2021-09-16
Probability Choice And Reason written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-16 with Mathematics categories.
Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.
Cognition And Chance
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Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2004-06-24
Cognition And Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
An overview of the information needed to make educated assumptions about the statistical or probabilistic characteristics of a situation, this text shows how to make intelligent assessments of risk, enhance decision making under uncertainty, facilitate the understanding of statistical information and critically evaluate the likelihood of claims.
Between Chance And Choice
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Author : Harald Atmanspacher
language : en
Publisher: Andrews UK Limited
Release Date : 2014-06-23
Between Chance And Choice written by Harald Atmanspacher and has been published by Andrews UK Limited this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-23 with Philosophy categories.
Are choice and free will possible in a world governed by deterministic fundamental equations? What sense would determinism make if many events and processes in the world seemed to be governed by chance? These and many other questions emphasize the fact that chance and choice are two leading actors on stage whenever issues of determinism are under discussion. This volume collects essays by accomplished scientists and philosophers, addressing numerous facets of the concept of determinism. The contributions cover viewpoints from mathematics, physics, cognitive science and social science as well as various branches of philosophy. They offer valuable reading for everyone interested in the interdisciplinary relations between determinism, chance and free will. The desire to foster an interdisciplinary dialogue on determinism, chance and free will was the initial impetus leading to an international workshop on determinism taking place at Ringberg Castle near Lake Tegernsee, south of Munich, in June 2001. Representatives from mathematics, physics, cognitive and social science, and various branches of philosophy convened to discuss numerous aspects of determinism from their disciplinary perspectives. This volume is based on elaborated and refereed manuscripts of their lectures.
Decision Probability And Utility
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Author : Peter Gärdenfors
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1988-04-29
Decision Probability And Utility written by Peter Gärdenfors and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.
Toward Robots That Reason Logic Probability Causal Laws
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Author : Vaishak Belle
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-02-20
Toward Robots That Reason Logic Probability Causal Laws written by Vaishak Belle and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-20 with Computers categories.
This book discusses the two fundamental elements that underline the science and design of artificial intelligence (AI) systems: the learning and acquisition of knowledge from observational data, and the reasoning of that knowledge together with whatever information is available about the application at hand. It then presents a mathematical treatment of the core issues that arise when unifying first-order logic and probability, especially in the presence of dynamics, including physical actions, sensing actions and their effects. A model for expressing causal laws describing dynamics is also considered, along with computational ideas for reasoning with such laws over probabilistic logical knowledge.
The Science Of Reason
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Author : Ken Manktelow
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2010-10-18
The Science Of Reason written by Ken Manktelow and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-18 with Psychology categories.
This volume is a state-of-the-art survey of the psychology of reasoning, based around, and in tribute to, one of the field’s most eminent figures: Jonathan St B.T. Evans. In this collection of cutting edge research, Evans’ collaborators and colleagues review a wide range of important and developing areas of inquiry. These include biases in thinking, probabilistic and causal reasoning, people’s use of ‘if’ sentences in arguments, the dual-process theory of thought, and the nature of human rationality. These foundational issues are examined from various angles and finally integrated in a concluding panoramic chapter written by Evans himself. The eighteen chapters, all written by leading international researchers, combine state-of the-art research with investigation into the most fundamental questions surrounding human mental life, such as: What is the architecture of the human mind? Are humans rational, and what is the nature of this rationality? How do we think hypothetically? The Science of Reason offers a unique combination of breadth, depth and integrative vision, making it an indispensable resource for researchers and students of human reason.
Improving Bayesian Reasoning What Works And Why
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Author : Gorka Navarrete
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2016-02-02
Improving Bayesian Reasoning What Works And Why written by Gorka Navarrete and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-02 with Electronic book categories.
We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thomas Bayes, offers a method for updating one’s prior probability of an hypothesis H on the basis of new data D such that P(H|D) = P(D|H)P(H)/P(D). The first wave of psychological research, pioneered by Ward Edwards, revealed that people were overly conservative in updating their posterior probabilities (i.e., P(D|H)). A second wave, spearheaded by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, showed that people often ignored prior probabilities or base rates, where the priors had a frequentist interpretation, and hence were not Bayesians at all. In the 1990s, a third wave of research spurred by Leda Cosmides and John Tooby and by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage showed that people can reason more like a Bayesian if only the information provided takes the form of (non-relativized) natural frequencies. Although Kahneman and Tversky had already noted the advantages of frequency representations, it was the third wave scholars who pushed the prescriptive agenda, arguing that there are feasible and effective methods for improving belief revision. Most scholars now agree that natural frequency representations do facilitate Bayesian reasoning. However, they do not agree on why this is so. The original third wave scholars favor an evolutionary account that posits human brain adaptation to natural frequency processing. But almost as soon as this view was proposed, other scholars challenged it, arguing that such evolutionary assumptions were not needed. The dominant opposing view has been that the benefit of natural frequencies is mainly due to the fact that such representations make the nested set relations perfectly transparent. Thus, people can more easily see what information they need to focus on and how to simply combine it. This Research Topic aims to take stock of where we are at present. Are we in a proto-fourth wave? If so, does it offer a synthesis of recent theoretical disagreements? The second part of the title orients the reader to the two main subtopics: what works and why? In terms of the first subtopic, we seek contributions that advance understanding of how to improve people’s abilities to revise their beliefs and to integrate probabilistic information effectively. The second subtopic centers on explaining why methods that improve non-Bayesian reasoning work as well as they do. In addressing that issue, we welcome both critical analyses of existing theories as well as fresh perspectives. For both subtopics, we welcome the full range of manuscript types.
Probability Theory
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Author : E. T. Jaynes
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2003-04-10
Probability Theory written by E. T. Jaynes and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-04-10 with Mathematics categories.
Index.
Taking Chances
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Author : Jordan Howard Sobel
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1994-04-29
Taking Chances written by Jordan Howard Sobel and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-04-29 with Philosophy categories.
J. Howard Sobel has long been recognized as an important figure in philosophical discussions of rational decision. He has done much to help formulate the concept of causal decision theory. In this volume of essays Sobel explores the Bayesian idea that rational actions maximize expected values, where an action's expected value is a weighted average of its agent's values for its possible total outcomes. Newcomb's Problem and The Prisoner's Dilemma are discussed, and Allais-type puzzles are viewed from the perspective of causal world Bayesianism. The author establishes principles for distinguishing options in decision problems, and studies ways in which perfectly rational causal maximizers can be capable of resolute choices. Sobel also views critically Gauthier's revisionist ideas about maximizing rationality. This collection will be a desideratum for anyone working in the field of rational choice theory, whether in philosophy, economics, political science, psychology or statistics. Howard Sobel's work in decision theory is certainly among the most important, interesting and challenging that is being done by philosophers.