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Probability Models For Economic Decisions Second Edition

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Probability Models For Economic Decisions Second Edition

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Author : Roger B. Myerson
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2019-12-17

Probability Models For Economic Decisions Second Edition written by Roger B. Myerson and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.

An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Probability Models For Economic Decisions Second Edition

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Author : Roger B. Myerson
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2019-12-17

Probability Models For Economic Decisions

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Author : Roger B. Myerson
language : en
Publisher: Duxbury Press
Release Date : 2005

Probability Models For Economic Decisions written by Roger B. Myerson and has been published by Duxbury Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Mathematics categories.

Learn to use probability in complex realistic situations with PROBABILITY MODELS FOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS. This introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions uses Microsoft Excel spreadsheets for the analytic work. As a result of the emphasis on spreadsheet modeling, you'll also develop sophisticated spreadsheet skills.

Statistics Catalog 2005

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Author : Neil Thomson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004-09

Statistics Catalog 2005 written by Neil Thomson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-09 with categories.

Informs Annual Meeting

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Author : Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. National Meeting
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005

Informs Annual Meeting written by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. National Meeting and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Industrial management categories.

Information And Efficiency In Economic Decision

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Author : Jati Sengupta
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Information And Efficiency In Economic Decision written by Jati Sengupta and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

Use of information is basic to economic theory in two ways. As a basis for optimization, it is central to all normative hypotheses used in eco nomics, but in decision-making situations it has stochastic and evolution ary aspects that are more dynamic and hence more fundamental. This book provides an illustrative survey of the use of information in econom ics and other decision sciences. Since this area is one of the most active fields of research in modern times, it is not possible to be definitive on all aspects of the issues involved. However questions that appear to be most important in this author's view are emphasized in many cases, without drawing any definite conclusions. It is hoped that these questions would provoke new interest for those beginning researchers in the field who are currently most active. Various classifications of information structures and their relevance for optimal decision-making in a stochastic environment are analyzed in some detail. Specifically the following areas are illustrated in its analytic aspects: 1. Stochastic optimization in linear economic models, 2. Stochastic models in dynamic economics with problems of time-inc- sistency, causality and estimation, 3. Optimal output-inventory decisions in stochastic markets, 4. Minimax policies in portfolio theory, 5. Methods of stochastic control and differential games, and 6. Adaptive information structures in decision models in economics and the theory of economic policy.

Personality And Cognition In Economic Decision Making

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Author : Aurora García-Gallego
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2017-08-22

Personality And Cognition In Economic Decision Making written by Aurora García-Gallego and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-22 with Decision making categories.

Psychologists studying cognitive processes and personality have increasingly benefited from the wealth of theory, methodology, and decision making paradigms used in economics and game theory. Similarly, for the economists, personality traits and basic cognitive processes offer a set of coherent explanatory constructs in economic behavior. Given the debate on preference invariance and behavioral consistency across contexts and domains, the papers in this topic shed light on the existence and effect of stable sets of idiosyncratic features on economic decision-making. While the effects of personality and cognition on economic decisions remain under-explored, the papers contributed in this topic offer more than a stimulus for further research. The general message could be that personality and cognitive processes offer the stable idiosyncratic ground on which individual decisions are made.

Probability Models

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Author : John Haigh
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-07-04

Probability Models written by John Haigh and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-04 with Mathematics categories.

The purpose of this book is to provide a sound introduction to the study of real-world phenomena that possess random variation. It describes how to set up and analyse models of real-life phenomena that involve elements of chance. Motivation comes from everyday experiences of probability, such as that of a dice or cards, the idea of fairness in games of chance, and the random ways in which, say, birthdays are shared or particular events arise. Applications include branching processes, random walks, Markov chains, queues, renewal theory, and Brownian motion. This textbook contains many worked examples and several chapters have been updated and expanded for the second edition. Some mathematical knowledge is assumed. The reader should have the ability to work with unions, intersections and complements of sets; a good facility with calculus, including integration, sequences and series; and appreciation of the logical development of an argument. Probability Models is designed to aid students studying probability as part of an undergraduate course on mathematics or mathematics and statistics.

Time Series Models For Business And Economic Forecasting

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Author : Philip Hans Franses
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1998-10-15

Time Series Models For Business And Economic Forecasting written by Philip Hans Franses and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-10-15 with Business & Economics categories.

The econometric analysis of economic and business time series is a major field of research and application. The last few decades have witnessed an increasing interest in both theoretical and empirical developments in constructing time series models and in their important application in forecasting. In Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting, Philip Franses examines recent developments in time series analysis. The early parts of the book focus on the typical features of time series data in business and economics. Part III is concerned with the discussion of some important concepts in time series analysis, the discussion focuses on the techniques which can be readily applied in practice. Parts IV-VIII suggest different modeling methods and model structures. Part IX extends the concepts in chapter three to multivariate time series. Part X examines common aspects across time series.

Discrete Choice Methods With Simulation

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Author : Kenneth Train
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2009-07-06

Discrete Choice Methods With Simulation written by Kenneth Train and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-07-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Probability Models For Economic Decisions Second Edition

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