Putting The New Keynesian Model To A Test
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Putting The New Keynesian Model To A Test
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Author : Roland Straub
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-05
Putting The New Keynesian Model To A Test written by Roland Straub and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-05 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent years, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK DSGE) models have become increasingly popular in the academic literature and in policy analysis. However, the success of these models in reproducing the dynamic behavior of an economy following structural shocks is still disputed. This paper attempts to shed light on this issue. We use a VAR with sign restrictions that are robust to model and parameter uncertainty to estimate the effects of monetary policy, preference, government spending, investment, price markup, technology, and labor supply shocks on macroeconomic variables in the United States and the euro area. In contrast to the NK DSGE models, the empirical results indicate that technology shocks have a positive effect on hours worked, and investment and preference shocks have a positive impact on consumption and investment, respectively. While the former is in line with the predictions of Real Business Cycle models, the latter indicates the relevance of accelerator effects, as described by earlier Keynesian models. We also show that NK DSGE models might overemphasize the contribution of cost-push shocks to business cycle fluctuations while, at the same time, underestimating the importance of other shocks such as changes to technology and investment adjustment costs.
Commodity Markets
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Author : John Baffes
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-12-07
Commodity Markets written by John Baffes and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the economic objectives of sustainable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, food security, and the mitigation of climate change. This study is the first comprehensive analysis examining market and policy developments for all commodity groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture, over the past century. It finds that, while the quantity of commodities consumed has risen enormously, driven by population and income growth, the relative importance of commodities has shifted over time, as technological innovation created new uses for some materials and facilitated substitution among commodities. The study also shows that commodity markets are heterogeneous in terms of their drivers, price behavior, and macroeconomic impact on emerging markets and developing economies, and that the relationship between economic growth and commodity demand varies widely across countries, depending on their stage of economic development. Policy frameworks that enable countercyclical macroeconomic responses have become increasingly common—and beneficial. Other policy tools have had mixed outcomes. Discussions about commodity-exporting emerging markets are often based on ideas without empirical or analytical support. This book is a great contribution to improve our understanding of those economies, based on rigorous research. It provides robust empirical evidence including a long-term perspective on commodity prices. It also contains very thoughtful policy analysis, with implications for resilience, macroeconomic policies, and development strategies. It will be a key reference for scholars as well as policy makers. José De Gregorio Dean of the School of Economics and Business Universidad de Chile Former Minister of Economy, Mining and Energy and Former Governor of the Central Bank of Chile A sound understanding of commodity markets is more essential than ever in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy commodities. This volume offers an excellent, comprehensive, and very timely analysis of the wide range of factors that affect commodity markets. It carefully surveys historical and future trends in commodity supply, demand, and prices, and offers detailed policy proposals to avoid the havoc that turbulent commodity markets can cause on the economies of commodity exporters and importers. Rick Van der Ploeg Research Director of Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource-Rich Economies University of Oxford
Global Economic Prospects January 2022
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-01-01
Global Economic Prospects January 2022 written by World Bank Group and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged period. Several risks cloud the outlook, including those related to the pandemic and to rapidly rising debt. The pandemic has further diminished already-weak growth prospects for the next decade. Decisive policy actions will be critical in raising the likelihood of better growth outcomes while warding off worse ones. Immediate priorities include supporting vulnerable groups and ensuring a prompt and widespread vaccination process to bring the pandemic under control. Although macroeconomic policy support will continue to be important, limited fiscal policy space amid high debt highlights the need for an ambitious reform agenda that bolsters growth prospects. To address many of these challenges, global cooperation will be key. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-10-24
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-24 with Business & Economics categories.
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Imf Research Bulletin
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Imf Research Bulletin written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with International finance categories.
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2005
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Author : Kenneth S. Rogoff
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2006-04
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2005 written by Kenneth S. Rogoff and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-04 with Business & Economics categories.
The 20th NBER Macroeconomics Annual, covering questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates.
Putting M Back In Monetary Policy
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Author : Eric M. Leeper
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Putting M Back In Monetary Policy written by Eric M. Leeper and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Monetary policy categories.
Money demand and the stock of money have all but disappeared from monetary policy analyses. This paper is an empirical contribution to the debate over the role of money in monetary policy analysis. The paper models supply and demand interactions in the money market and finds evidence of an essential role for money in the transmission of policy. Across sub-samples, it finds evidence consistent with the following inferences: (1) the money stock and the interest rate jointly transmit monetary policy; (2) for a given exogenous change in the nominal interest rate, the estimated impact of policy on economic activity increases monotonically with the response of the money supply; (3) the path of the real rate is not sufficient for determining policy impacts.
Monthly Bulletin
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Monthly Bulletin written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Banks and banking, Central categories.
Productivity And Job Flows
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Author : Juha Kilponen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Productivity And Job Flows written by Juha Kilponen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
This paper focuses on productivity dynamics of a firm-worker match as a potential explanation for the 'unemployment volatility puzzle'. We let new matches and continuing jobs differ in terms of productivity level and sensitivity to aggregate productivity shocks. As a result, new matches have a higher destruction rate and lower, but more volatile, wages than old matches, as new hires receive technology associated with the latest vintage. In our model, an aggregate productivity shock generates a persistent productivity difference between the two types of matches, creating an incentive to open new productive vacancies and to destroy old matches that are temporarily less productive. The model produces a well behaved Beveridge curve, despite endogenous job destruction and more volatile vacancies and unemployment, without needing to rely on differing wage setting mechanisms for new and continuing jobs.
The Business Cycle Theories And Evidence
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Author : M.T. Belongia
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
The Business Cycle Theories And Evidence written by M.T. Belongia and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
These proceedings, from a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 17-18, 1991, attempted to layout what we currently know about aggregate economic fluctuations. Identifying what we know inevitably reveals what we do not know about such fluctuations as well. From the vantage point of where the conference's participants view our current understanding to be, these proceedings can be seen as suggesting an agenda for further research. The conference was divided into five sections. It began with the formu lation of an empirical definition of the "business cycle" and a recitation of the stylized facts that must be explained by any theory that purports to capture the business cycle's essence. After outlining the historical develop ment and key features of the current "theories" of business cycles, the conference evaluated these theories on the basis of their ability to explain the facts. Included in this evaluation was a discussion of whether (and how) the competing theories could be distinguished empirically. The conference then examined the implications for policy of what is known and not known about business cycles. A panel discussion closed the conference, high lighting important unresolved theoretical and empirical issues that should be taken up in future business cycle research. What Is a Business Cycle? Before gaining a genuine understanding of business cycles, economists must agree and be clear about what they mean when they refer to the cycle.