Quantifying The Speculative Component In The Real Price Of Oil
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Quantifying The Speculative Component In The Real Price Of Oil
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Author : Lutz Kilian
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Quantifying The Speculative Component In The Real Price Of Oil written by Lutz Kilian and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Petroleum industry and trade categories.
One of the central questions of policy interest in recent years has been how many dollars of the inflation-adjusted price of oil must be attributed to speculative demand for oil stocks at each point in time. We develop statistical tools that allow us to address this question, and we use these tools to explore how the use of two alternative proxies for global crude oil inventories affects the empirical evidence for speculation. Notwithstanding some differences, overall these inventory proxies yield similar results. While there is evidence of speculative demand raising the price in mid-2008 by between 5 and 14 dollars, depending on the inventory specification, there is no evidence of speculative demand pressures between early 2003 and early 2008. As a result, current policy efforts aimed at tightening the regulation of oil derivatives markets cannot be expected to lower the real price of oil in the physical market. We also provide evidence that the Libyan crisis in 2011 shifted expectations in oil markets, resulting in a price increase of between 3 and 13 dollars, depending on the inventory specification. With regard to tensions with Iran in 2012, the implied price premium ranges from 0 to 9 dollars.
Oil Price Volatility And The Role Of Speculation
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Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-12-12
Oil Price Volatility And The Role Of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-12 with Business & Economics categories.
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis
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Author : Lutz Kilian
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2017-11-23
Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.
Essays In Honor Of Joon Y Park
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Author : Yoosoon Chang
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2023-04-24
Essays In Honor Of Joon Y Park written by Yoosoon Chang and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Volumes 45a and 45b of Advances in Econometrics honor Professor Joon Y. Park, who has made numerous and substantive contributions to the field of econometrics over a career spanning four decades since the 1980s and counting.
Commodities
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Author : H. Kent Baker
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2018-03-06
Commodities written by H. Kent Baker and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a comprehensive view of commodity markets by describing and analyzing historical commodity performance, vehicles for investing in commodities, portfolio strategies, and current topics. It begins with the basics of commodity markets and various investment vehicles. The book then highlights the unique risk and return profiles of commodity investments, along with the dangers from mismanaged risk practices. The book also provides important insights into recent developments, including high frequency trading, financialization, and the emergence of virtual currencies as commodities. Readers of Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies can gain an in-depth understanding about the multiple dimensions of commodity investing from experts from around the world. Commodity markets can be accessed with products that create unique risk and return dynamics for investors worldwide. The authors provide insights in a range of areas, from the economics of supply and demand for individual physical commodities through the financial products used to gain exposure to commodities. The book balances useful practical advice on commodity exposure while exposing the reader to various pitfalls inherent in these markets. Readers interested in a basic understanding will benefit as will those looking for more in-depth presentations of specific areas within commodity markets. Overall, Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a fresh look at the myriad dimensions of investing in these globally important markets.
The Handbook Of Energy Policy
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Author : Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-04-29
The Handbook Of Energy Policy written by Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.
The Handbook of Energy Policy is a unique and novel reference for addressing the policy implications of energy demand and supply from their economic, political, social, planning, and environmental aspects. The Handbook of Energy Policy provides several studies from the global, regional, national, or local perspectives that are of wider policy significance. Studies provided in this book are of interest to the international organizations, governments, public and private sector entities, local communities, universities, research institutions, and other non-governmental organizations. Topics covered in the Handbook of Energy Policy are including energy security, energy poverty, energy finance, energy pricing, energy and environment, energy and sustainability, energy and growth, energy efficiency, energy trade, technological innovation and energy, energy transition, energy nexus studies, economics, and policy of fossil fuels, economics, and policy of renewable and green energies. The policy recommendations provided in all chapters are supported by a rigorous empirical or theoretical analysis.
The Comovement In Commodity Prices
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Author : Mr.Ron Alquist
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-06-05
The Comovement In Commodity Prices written by Mr.Ron Alquist and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-05 with Business & Economics categories.
We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
The Oxford Handbook Of Energy Politics
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Author : Kathleen J. Hancock
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 2020-10-15
The Oxford Handbook Of Energy Politics written by Kathleen J. Hancock and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-15 with Political Science categories.
"In many ways, everything we once knew about energy resources and technologies has been impacted by: the longstanding scientific consensus on climate change and related support for renewable energy; the affordability of extraction of unconventional fuels; increasing demand for energy resources by middle- and low-income nations; new regional and global stakeholders; fossil fuel discoveries and emerging renewable technologies; awareness of (trans)local politics; and rising interest in corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the need for energy justice. Research on these and related topics now appears frequently in social science academic journals-in broad-based journals, such as International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, and Review of International Political Economy, as well as those focused specifically on energy (e.g., Energy Research & Social Science and Energy Policy), the environment (Global Environmental Politics), natural resources (Resources Policy), and extractive industries (Extractive Industries and Society). The Oxford Handbook of Energy Politics synthesizes and aggregates this substantively diverse literature to provide insights into, and a foundation for teaching and research on, critical energy issues primarily in the areas of international relations and comparative politics. Its primary goals are to further develop the energy politics scholarship and community, and generate sophisticated new work that will benefit a variety of scholars working on energy issues"--
Energy Technology And Valuation Issues
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Author : André Dorsman
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-01-28
Energy Technology And Valuation Issues written by André Dorsman and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume investigates the impact of energy technology innovations on economic development and presents new areas of research into the financial economics of energy as well as new studies into valuation, electricity pricing and the economic, regulatory and environmental costs of alternative energy sources. Academics and practitioners take a global perspective and present cases from several countries. The book concentrates on three issues: 1) innovation and shocks in energy markets; 2) environment and renewables and 3) fossil fuel regulation. The book will provide a useful resource for anyone with an academic or business interest in energy and value issues. This is the fourth volume in a series on energy organized by the Center for Energy and Value Issues (CEVI). The previous volumes in the series include Financial Aspects in Energy (2011), Energy Economics and Financial Markets (2012) and Perspectives on Energy Risk (2014).
Contemporary Trends And Challenges In Finance
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Author : Krzysztof Jajuga
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-05-07
Contemporary Trends And Challenges In Finance written by Krzysztof Jajuga and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-07 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume features a selection of contributions presented at the 2018 Wroclaw Conference in Finance, which cover a wide range of topics in finance and financial economics, e.g. financial markets; monetary policy; corporate, personal and public finance; and risk management and insurance. Reflecting the diversity and richness of research areas in the field, the papers discuss both fundamental and applied finance, and offer a detailed analysis of current financial-market problems, including specifics of the Polish and Central European markets. They also examine the results of advanced financial modeling. Accordingly, the proceedings offer a valuable resource for researchers at universities and policy institutions, as well as graduate students and practitioners in economics and finance at both private and government organizations.