Reducing Uncertainty
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Reducing Uncertainty
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Author : Thomas Fingar
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Release Date : 2011-07-20
Reducing Uncertainty written by Thomas Fingar and has been published by Stanford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-20 with Political Science categories.
An look at what Intelligence Community analysts do and how, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses and abuses their outputs. The US government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce uncertainty: to monitor and forecast everything from the weather to the spread of disease. In other words, we spend a lot of money to anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. A substantial portion of what we spend—over $50 billion a year—goes to the US Intelligence Community. Reducing Uncertainty describes what Intelligence Community analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. In particular, it looks at why IC analysts pay more attention to threats than to opportunities, and why they appear to focus more on warning about the possibility of “bad things” happening than on providing the input necessary for increasing the likelihood of positive outcomes. The book is intended to increase public understanding of what IC analysts do, to elicit more relevant and constructive suggestions for improvement from outside the Intelligence Community, to stimulate innovation and collaboration among analysts at all grade levels in all agencies, and to provide a core resource for students of intelligence. The most valuable aspect of this book is the in-depth discussion of National Intelligence Estimates (NIE)—what they are, what it means to say that they represent the “most authoritative judgments of the Intelligence Community,” why and how they are important, and why they have such high political salience and symbolic importance. The final chapter lays out, from an insider’s perspective, the story of the flawed Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) NIE and its impact on the subsequent Iran nuclear NIE—paying particular attention to the heightened political scrutiny the latter received in Congress following the Iraq NIE debacle. Praise for Reducing Uncertainty “This is a well-documented, well-written piece by a former high-ranking member of the intelligence community . . . . Recommended.” —CHOICE “Fingar provides a clear and useful tour of how intelligence analysis is produced.” —Political Science Quarterly “Tom Fingar provides a frank, detailed examination of the challenges to and successes of the U.S. Intelligence Community. In doing so, he reveals insights and strategies that directly address our national security needs. High-stakes examples described by Fingar provide an insider-account only he can provide. The result is riveting and informative.” —William J. Perry, Secretary of Defense for the United States, 1994 to 1997
Reducing Uncertainty About Uncertainty Effects Of Communicating Scientific Uncertainties On Public Engagement With Science And Judgments Of Emerging Technologies
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Author : Andrea Retzbach
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Reducing Uncertainty About Uncertainty Effects Of Communicating Scientific Uncertainties On Public Engagement With Science And Judgments Of Emerging Technologies written by Andrea Retzbach and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Management Of Uncertainty
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Author : Gudela Grote
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-09-17
Management Of Uncertainty written by Gudela Grote and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-09-17 with Business & Economics categories.
As I write, the financial systems of the world are collapsing with still no clear indication of what the consequences will be and which measures should be taken to avoid such a crisis in the future. There seems to be agreement though, that the financial instruments introduced in the past few decades entailed far too much complexity and uncertainty and that there was too little regulatory control over the use of these instruments. Management of uncertainty with the aim of achieving self-control is the core concern of this book. It was not written with a focus on financial systems, but many concepts developed in this book are applicable to this field as well. The - neric principles of reducing, maintaining or increasing uncertainties in view of the different contingencies an organization is faced with, the fundamental issue of how much control is possible and who should be in control, and the question of how much and what kind of regulation is necessary with the overall aim of finding an appropriate balance between system stability and flexibility are at the centre of heated debates on the future of finance.
Managing Banking Risks
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Author : Eddie Cade
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-11-26
Managing Banking Risks written by Eddie Cade and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Banking and financial services are some of the fastest-growing industries in the world's developed countries. As growth is spurred on by huge demand for new and improved services, bankers face the daunting and difficult challenges of reducing risks and uncertainty at a time of unprecedented innovation and prosperity. Managing Banking Risks fills a gap in banking literature by providing a professional and sophisticated risk planner--for bank directors, executives, and managers at every operational level. This important work covers the full range of banking risks that operation managers and executives need to understand--from liquidity risk to price risk to operating risk.
The Value Of Outcrop Studies In Reducing Subsurface Uncertainty And Risk In Hydrocarbon Exploration And Production
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Author : M. Bowman
language : en
Publisher: Geological Society of London
Release Date : 2016-12-13
The Value Of Outcrop Studies In Reducing Subsurface Uncertainty And Risk In Hydrocarbon Exploration And Production written by M. Bowman and has been published by Geological Society of London this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-13 with Science categories.
This volume reviews and reappraises the value and impact of outcrop-based fieldwork in hydrocarbon exploration, appraisal, development and production. There has been a resurgence in the use and need for outcrop-based research as analogues and benchmarks for subsurface overburden and reservoir studies, and digital technologies combined with traditional methods are revolutionizing this area of field-studies.
Risk And Uncertainty Reduction By Using Algebraic Inequalities
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Author : Michael T. Todinov
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-06-02
Risk And Uncertainty Reduction By Using Algebraic Inequalities written by Michael T. Todinov and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-02 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book covers the application of algebraic inequalities for reliability improvement and for uncertainty and risk reduction. It equips readers with powerful domain-independent methods for reducing risk based on algebraic inequalities and demonstrates the significant benefits derived from the application for risk and uncertainty reduction. Algebraic inequalities: • Provide a powerful reliability improvement, risk and uncertainty reduction method that transcends engineering and can be applied in various domains of human activity • Present an effective tool for dealing with deep uncertainty related to key reliability-critical parameters of systems and processes • Permit meaningful interpretations which link abstract inequalities with the real world • Offer a tool for determining tight bounds for the variation of risk-critical parameters and complying the design with these bounds to avoid failure • Allow optimising designs and processes by minimising the deviation of critical output parameters from their specified values and maximising their performance This book is primarily for engineering professionals and academic researchers in virtually all existing engineering disciplines.
Thinking Strategically
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2005-10-15
Thinking Strategically written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-10-15 with Science categories.
The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and its predecessor U.S. Global Change Research Program have sponsored climate research and observations for nearly 15 years, yet the overall progress of the program has not been measured systematically. Metricsâ€"a system of measurement that includes the item being measured, the unit of measurement, and the value of the unitâ€"offer a tool for measuring such progress; improving program performance; and demonstrating program successes to Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, and the public. This report lays out a framework for creating and implementing metrics for the CCSP. A general set of metrics provides a starting point for identifying the most important measures, and the principles provide guidance for refining the metrics and avoiding unintended consequences.
Risk And Uncertainty Reduction By Using Algebraic Inequalities
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Author : Michael T. Todinov
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-06-02
Risk And Uncertainty Reduction By Using Algebraic Inequalities written by Michael T. Todinov and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-02 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book covers the application of algebraic inequalities for reliability improvement and for uncertainty and risk reduction. It equips readers with powerful domain-independent methods for reducing risk based on algebraic inequalities and demonstrates the significant benefits derived from the application for risk and uncertainty reduction. Algebraic inequalities: • Provide a powerful reliability improvement, risk and uncertainty reduction method that transcends engineering and can be applied in various domains of human activity • Present an effective tool for dealing with deep uncertainty related to key reliability-critical parameters of systems and processes • Permit meaningful interpretations which link abstract inequalities with the real world • Offer a tool for determining tight bounds for the variation of risk-critical parameters and complying the design with these bounds to avoid failure • Allow optimising designs and processes by minimising the deviation of critical output parameters from their specified values and maximising their performance This book is primarily for engineering professionals and academic researchers in virtually all existing engineering disciplines.
Reducing Uncertainty
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Author : David C. McGaffey
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Reducing Uncertainty written by David C. McGaffey and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Ethnopsychology categories.
Managing Uncertainty In Organizational Communication
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Author : Michael W. Kramer
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-04-04
Managing Uncertainty In Organizational Communication written by Michael W. Kramer and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
In this book, Michael W. Kramer applies uncertainty reduction theory (URT)--a key theory in current communication scholarship--to the context of organizational communication. Examining URT and the range of research applicable to organizational settings, Kramer proposes a groundbreaking theory of managing uncertainty (TMU), which synthesizes prior research while also addressing its criticisms. Examples are provided to illustrate the principles of the TMU at both the individual and collective (group/organizational) levels of analysis. Original studies based on the theory show that it provides a useful extension of URT, addressing some concerns raised by critics of that earlier model. Kramer illustrates that, as a model in progress, TMU will change as new research and insights build upon it. Managing Uncertainty in Organizational Communication assists readers in understanding and researching uncertainty in communication, which encourages additional changes and improvements to the model. It is of primary interest to scholars, researchers, and practitioners in organizational, interpersonal, and group communication.