Reliability And Uncertainty Analyses In Hydraulic Design
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Reliability And Uncertainty Analyses In Hydraulic Design
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Author : Ben Chie Yen
language : en
Publisher: ASCE Publications
Release Date : 1993-01-01
Reliability And Uncertainty Analyses In Hydraulic Design written by Ben Chie Yen and has been published by ASCE Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993-01-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Prepared by the Subcommittee on Uncertainty and Reliability Analyses in Design of Hydraulic Structures of the Technical Committee on Probabilistic Approaches to Hydraulics of ASCE. This report contains 13 papers presenting the application of reliability analysis to the design and safety of hydraulic structures. Several recent major failures of engineering systems have raised public concern on the safety and reliability of engineering struct.ures. Decades ago, a quantitative evaluation of the reliability of structures was not possible and engineers used safety factors that were determined mainly through experience and judgement. Recent advances in probability methods and computers make it feasible to evaluate the contributions of various technologic and natural factors to the safety and reliability of structures.ØThe first four papers in this report discuss techniques pertinent to reliability and uncertainty analyses. The next nine papers explore how these techniques can be applied to dam safety, coastal floods, and hydraulic structures. The report concludes with a reprint of an article by Vrijling on the Eastern Scheldt Storm Surge Barrier of the Delta Project in the Netherlands and the use of reliability analysis for sewer design.
Reliability And Uncertainty Analyses In Hydraulic Design
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Author : Ben Chie Yen
language : en
Publisher: Amer Society of Civil Engineers
Release Date : 1993-01-01
Reliability And Uncertainty Analyses In Hydraulic Design written by Ben Chie Yen and has been published by Amer Society of Civil Engineers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993-01-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Since application of reliability analysis to hydraulic engineering covers a wide scope of sub-fields, this report presents a glimpse of some of the topics pertinent to the design and safety of hydraulic structures. The first four papers discuss various techniques pertinent to reliability and uncertainty analyses.
Hydrosystems Engineering Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : Yeou-Koung Tung
language : en
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Release Date : 2005-04-14
Hydrosystems Engineering Uncertainty Analysis written by Yeou-Koung Tung and has been published by McGraw Hill Professional this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-04-14 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Failure of hydrosystems, such as dams, levees, storm sewers, or pollution control systems, pose threats to the public safety and health as well as potentially inflict enormous damages on properties and environments. Many failures of hydrosystems are mainly attributed by the existence of various uncertainties, including inherent natural randomness and the lack of complete understanding of involved geophysical processes. It is therefore essential to systematically quantify the degree of uncertainty for the problem in hand so that reliability assessment and risk-based design of hydrosystems can be made. The conventional approach of frequency analysis of heavy rainfalls or large floods consider only portion of the uncertainties involved in hydrosystem engineering problems. Over the past two decades or so, there has been a steady growth on the development and application of uncertainty analysis techniques in hydrosystems engineering and other disciplines. The aim of this book is to bring together these uncertainty analysis techniques in one book and to demonstrate their applications and limitations for a wide variety of hydrosystem engineering problems.
Uncertainty Modeling And Analysis In Civil Engineering
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Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 1997-12-29
Uncertainty Modeling And Analysis In Civil Engineering written by Bilal M. Ayyub and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-12-29 with Technology & Engineering categories.
With the expansion of new technologies, materials, and the design of complex systems, the expectations of society upon engineers are becoming larger than ever. Engineers make critical decisions with potentially high adverse consequences. The current political, societal, and financial climate requires engineers to formally consider the factors of uncertainty (e.g., floods, earthquakes, winds, environmental risks) in their decisions at all levels. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering provides a thorough report on the immediate state of uncertainty modeling and analytical methods for civil engineering systems, presenting a toolbox for solving problems in real-world situations. Topics include Neural networks Genetic algorithms Numerical modeling Fuzzy sets and operations Reliability and risk analysis Systems control Uncertainty in probability estimates This compendium is a considerable reference for civil engineers as well as for engineers in other disciplines, computer scientists, general scientists, and students.
Flood Issues In Contemporary Water Management
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Author : J. Marsalek
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Flood Issues In Contemporary Water Management written by J. Marsalek and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.
In 1997 disastrous flooding running through the Czech Republic, Poland, Germany took the lives of a great number of people and caused economic damage estimated in tens of billions of dollars. Flooding of the Yangtze river in 1998 killed more than 3000 people, dislocated 230 million souls, and caused direct damage of more than $ 45 billion. Both the general public and the experts are asking what we can learn from these recent events to reduce loss of life and flood damage. The 1997 floods were dealt with by experts from the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany, who presented timely reports on combatting floods, both success stories and shortcomings. This experience is further extended by reports from experts drawn from 13 other countries, developing a broad overview of flood risk management, covering the ecosystem approach to flood management, including socioeconomic issues, flood impacts on water quality, human health, and natural ecosystems.
Risk Reliability Uncertainty And Robustness Of Water Resource Systems
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Author : Janos J. Bogardi
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2002-01-28
Risk Reliability Uncertainty And Robustness Of Water Resource Systems written by Janos J. Bogardi and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-01-28 with Science categories.
35 leading multi-disciplinary scientists with international reputations provide reviews of topical areas of research on uncertainty and reliability related aspects of water resource systems. The volume will be valuable for graduate students, scientists, consultants, administrators, and practising hydrologists and water managers.
Fluvial Hydrosystems
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Author : Geoffrey Petts
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 1996-09-30
Fluvial Hydrosystems written by Geoffrey Petts and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-09-30 with Science categories.
Fluvial Hydrosystems provides a unified approach to the study of running waters and aims to provide a scientific basis for sustainable management of rivers. It differs from traditional texts in viewing rivers as structured, four-dimensional systems and integrating ecological and geomorphological approaches to provide a holistic perspective on river dynamics. Advanced students of geomorphology, ecology, environmental science, land use and civil engineering will all benefit from this wide-ranging and stimulating textbook.
Risk Analysis And Uncertainty In Flood Damage Reduction Studies
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2000-11-20
Risk Analysis And Uncertainty In Flood Damage Reduction Studies written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-11-20 with Science categories.
Reducing flood damage is a complex task that requires multidisciplinary understanding of the earth sciences and civil engineering. In addressing this task the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers employs its expertise in hydrology, hydraulics, and geotechnical and structural engineering. Dams, levees, and other river-training works must be sized to local conditions; geotechnical theories and applications help ensure that structures will safely withstand potential hydraulic and seismic forces; and economic considerations must be balanced to ensure that reductions in flood damages are proportionate with project costs and associated impacts on social, economic, and environmental values. A new National Research Council report, Risk Analysis and Uncertainty in Flood Damage Reduction Studies, reviews the Corps of Engineers' risk-based techniques in its flood damage reduction studies and makes recommendations for improving these techniques. Areas in which the Corps has made good progress are noted, and several steps that could improve the Corps' risk-based techniques in engineering and economics applications for flood damage reduction are identified. The report also includes recommendations for improving the federal levee certification program, for broadening the scope of flood damage reduction planning, and for improving communication of risk-based concepts.
Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management
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Author : Keith Beven
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2014-01-13
Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management written by Keith Beven and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-13 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis. Contents:Introduction:Flood Risk Management: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (Jim W Hall)Use of Models in Flood Risk Management (Keith Beven)Theoretical Perspectives:A Framework for Uncertainty Analysis (Keith Beven)Classical Approaches for Statistical Inference in Model Calibration with Uncertainty (R E Chandler)Formal Bayes Methods for Model Calibration with Uncertainty (Jonathan Rougier)The GLUE Methodology for Model Calibration with Uncertainty (Keith Beven)Uncertainties in Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis:Uncertainty in Rainfall Inputs (R E Chandler, V S Isham, P J Northrop, H S Wheater, C J Onof and N A Leith)Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analysis (Thomas R Kjeldsen, Rob Lamb and Sarka D Blazkova)Minimising Uncertainty in Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values (C Keef)Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Modelling (Paul D Bates, Florian Pappenberger and Renata J Romanowicz)Flood Defence Reliability Analysis (Pieter van Gelder and Han Vrijling)Uncertainties in Flood Modelling in Urban Areas (Slobodan Djordjević, Zoran Vojinović, Richard Dawson and Dragan A Savić)The Many Uncertainties in Flood Loss Assessments (John Chatterton, Edmund Penning-Rowsell and Sally Priest)Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Current and Future Flood Risk in the Thames Estuary (Jim W Hall, Hamish Harvey and Owen Tarrant)Uncertainties in Real-Time Flood Forecasting:Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting (Albrecht H Weerts, Dong-Jun Seo, Micha Werner and John Schaake)A Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling Approach to Real-Time Flood Forecasting (Peter C Young, Renata J Romanowicz and Keith Beven)Uncertainty Estimation in Fluvial Flood Forecasting Applications (Kevin Sene, Albrecht H Weerts, Keith Beven, Robert J Moore, Chris Whitlow, Stefan Laeger and Richard Cross)Case Study: Decision Making for Flood Forecasting in the US National Weather Service (Robert Hartman and John Schaake)Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainties in Operational Forecasting: Examples from the Delft FEWS Forecasting System (Micha Werner, Paolo Reggiani and Albrecht H Weerts)Real-Time Coastal Flood Forecasting (Kevin Horsburgh and Jonathan Flowerdew)Uncertainties in Long-Term Change in Flood Risk:Detecting Long-Term Change in Flood Risk (Cíntia B Uvo and Robin T Clarke)Detecting Changes in Winter Precipitation Extremes and Fluvial Flood Risk (Robert L Wilby, Hayley J Fowler and Bill Donovan)Flood Risk in Eastern Australia — Climate Variability and Change (Stewart W Franks)Communicating Uncertainties:Translating Uncertainty in Flood Risk Science (Hazel Faulkner, Meghan Alexander and David Leedal) Readership: Hydrologists, civil engineers, meteorologists, flood risk managers, environmental scientists, hydraulic engineers and consultants. Key Features:Dedicated to the important problem of uncertainty in flood risk analysisTakes an applied perspective with a range of case studiesProvides a comprehensive coverage of uncertainties in flood risk analysis, including flood forecasting, simulation modeling and impacts assessmentKeywords:Floods;Flood Risk Management;Uncertainty Estimation;Flood Frequency;Rainfall Models
Application Of Frequency And Risk In Water Resources
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Author : V.P. Singh
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Application Of Frequency And Risk In Water Resources written by V.P. Singh and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.
Floods constitute a persistent and serious problem throughout the United States and many other parts of the world. They are responsible for losses amounting to billions of dollars and scores of deaths annually. Virtually all parts of the nation--coastal, moun tainous and rural--are affected by them. Two aspects of the problem of flooding that have long been topics of scientific inquiry are flood frequency and risk analyses. Many new, even improved, tech niques have recently been developed for performing these analyses. Nevertheless, actual experience points out that the frequency of say a IOO-year flood, in lieu of being encountered on the average once in one hundred years, may be as little as once in 25 years. It is therefore appropriate to pause and ask where we are, where we are going and where we ought to be going with regard to the technology of flood frequency and risk analyses. One way to address these ques tions is to provide a forum where people from all quarters of the world can assemble, discuss and share their experience and expertise pertaining to flood frequency and risk analyses. This is what con stituted the motivation for organizing the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses held May 14-17, 1986, at Louisiana State Universj. ty, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.