Rethinking Fiscal Policy In Oil Exporting Countries
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Rethinking Fiscal Policy In Oil Exporting Countries
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Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-05-17
Rethinking Fiscal Policy In Oil Exporting Countries written by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-17 with Business & Economics categories.
We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece—the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)—is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these goals need to be more prudent and better anchored than the PIH. Second, we point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the appropriate fiscal anchors, the vice of procyclicality, and the (im)possibility of simultaneously smoothing consumption and ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability. Finally, we propose what we call a prudent wealth stabilization policy that would be more consistent with long-term fiscal policy goals, yet relatively simple to implement and communicate.
Cyclical Fiscal Rules For Oil Exporting Countries
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Author : Stephen Snudden
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-11-06
Cyclical Fiscal Rules For Oil Exporting Countries written by Stephen Snudden and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on the source of oil price fluctuations and the oil exporters’ structural characteristics. The output-inflation tradeoff is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation. Fiscal rules are best when coordinated with inflation targeting monetary policy, but are still desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes.
External Adjustment In Oil Exporters
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Author : Mr.Alberto Behar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-09-08
External Adjustment In Oil Exporters written by Mr.Alberto Behar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters (including the Gulf Cooperation Council), a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.
Fiscal Policy And Economic Cycles In Oil Exporting Countries
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Author : Aasim M. Husain
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Fiscal Policy And Economic Cycles In Oil Exporting Countries written by Aasim M. Husain and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business cycles categories.
This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.
Fiscal Policy In Open Developing Economies
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Author : Mr.Vito Tanzi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1990-06-15
Fiscal Policy In Open Developing Economies written by Mr.Vito Tanzi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Based on papers presented at the 44th Congress of the international Institute of Public Finance, this book, edited by Vito Tanzi, deals with public finance and macroeconomic policy in open, developing economies, with case studies of Chile, Mexico, Turkey, Korea, and the Arab oil exporting countries.
Fiscal Policy Sustainability In Oil Producing Countries
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Author : Ms.Sheila Bassett
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1994-11-01
Fiscal Policy Sustainability In Oil Producing Countries written by Ms.Sheila Bassett and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Assessing the sustainability of a given fiscal policy is especially important for countries that depend on income from exhaustible resources. Political and growth pressures may push governments to raise expenditure when revenue from exhaustible resources rises, but cutting outlays when price swings reduce income is often difficult. Traditional fiscal accounting may give a misleading view of policy sustainability. This paper argues that for countries in which a significant proportion of government revenue is derived from the exploitation of an exhaustible natural resource, fiscal policy sustainability can best be assessed within a permanent income framework that takes into account total government wealth, including the imputed wealth from reserves of natural resources. Using this framework, the paper takes a sample of six countries where government revenue from petroleum extraction is significant and draws conclusions about the sustainability of their fiscal policies during 1980-92.
Fiscal Policy In Oil Producing Countries During The Recent Oil Price Cycle
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-02-01
Fiscal Policy In Oil Producing Countries During The Recent Oil Price Cycle written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.
Optimal Fiscal Strategy For Oil Exporting Countries
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Author : Eduardo Engel
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2000-06
Optimal Fiscal Strategy For Oil Exporting Countries written by Eduardo Engel and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper develops simple guidelines for fiscal policy in oil producing countries, focusing on three issues: intergenerational oil distribution, precautionary saving, and adjustment costs. The paper presents a framework to analyze how the revenue generated by an exhaustible source of wealth that belongs to the government should be distributed between current and future generations. This framework is used to show the strengths and limitations of existing answers, which motivates a new approach for dealing with this question. The paper derives simple, closed form approximations to the optimal level of government expenditure when an important part of government revenue is generated by an uncertain and exhaustible natural resource such as oil. Price uncertainty, budget uncertainty, and the (possibly asymmetric) costs of adjusting expenditure levels are considered.
Stress Testing At The Imf
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Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-05
Stress Testing At The Imf written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
The Future Of Oil And Fiscal Sustainability In The Gcc Region
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Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-06
The Future Of Oil And Fiscal Sustainability In The Gcc Region written by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.