Rice Price Shocks And Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea
![Rice Price Shocks And Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea](https://ardhindie.com/assets/pdf.png)
DOWNLOAD
Download Rice Price Shocks And Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Rice Price Shocks And Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Rice Price Shocks And Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea
DOWNLOAD
Author : Schmidt, Emily
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2020-09-25
Rice Price Shocks And Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea written by Schmidt, Emily and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-25 with Political Science categories.
Rice prices in international markets rose sharply between December 2019 and May 2020, increasing, for example, by 25 percent in Thailand and 30 percent in Vietnam. Given that essentially all of the rice supply for Papua New Guinea (PNG) comes from rice imports, the domestic price of rice in PNG is likely to rise substantially in coming months. Although PNG’s food economy is dominated by domestically produced starchy staples, rice imports have almost doubled from 167,000 tons annually in 2005 to an estimated 300,000 tons in 2020. This note examines rice consumption patterns and international trade trends for PNG to shed light on the potential impacts in rural and urban PNG of disruptions to rice imports. Our model simulations indicate that a 30 percent rise in the world price of rice would be expected to decrease the rice consumption of poor households by 17.3 percent. Under this scenario, consumers in poor households, which are those in the bottom 40 percent of the household expenditure distribution in PNG, would suffer a net welfare loss of USD 23.0 million, equivalent to a 1.6 percent decrease in a per capita daily income of one US dollar.
Effects Of Covid 19 And Other Shocks On Papua New Guinea S Food Economy A Multi Market Simulation Analysis
DOWNLOAD
Author : Diao, Xinshen
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Effects Of Covid 19 And Other Shocks On Papua New Guinea S Food Economy A Multi Market Simulation Analysis written by Diao, Xinshen and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Political Science categories.
Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.
Effects Of Covid 19 On Papua New Guinea S Food Economy A Multi Market Simulation Analysis
DOWNLOAD
Author : Diao, Xinshen
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2020-12-04
Effects Of Covid 19 On Papua New Guinea S Food Economy A Multi Market Simulation Analysis written by Diao, Xinshen and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-04 with Political Science categories.
Developments in the agricultural economy of Papua New Guinea have major impacts on household food consumption decisions. A household’s ability to produce and sell food is affected by climate and associated agricultural potential, market opportunities (domestic, import and export) and unexpected shocks. Each of these factors affects the overall food system, thereby influencing production and consumption of all food products and the markets in which they are traded. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a challenge far more complex than an agricultural production shock, such as those due to El Niño or pests. Rather than directly affecting agricultural output and rural household welfare, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies across the globe via trade disruptions (logistic challenges; international trade barriers), social distancing policies (domestic food market and nonessential business closures), and transportation restrictions (road closures; air travel cancellations). The measures aimed to curb the spread of COVID-19 have affected household incomes via urban job losses, reduced market interaction, and dramatic changes in world food prices. While rice prices have increased, luxury food prices, such as for chocolate (i.e. cocoa), have decreased. PNG’s unique and highly varied biophysical landscape has shaped agricultural production patterns, outcomes, and livelihoods for centuries. Understanding how the PNG agrifood economy and resulting household consumption is affected by COVID-19 therefore requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded.
Rural Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea Food Security And Nutrition Challenges
DOWNLOAD
Author : Schmidt, Emily
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-08-04
Rural Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea Food Security And Nutrition Challenges written by Schmidt, Emily and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-04 with Political Science categories.
Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based die tary guidelines.
Papua New Guinea Agri Food Trade Trends Dietary Change And Obesity
DOWNLOAD
Author : Schmidt, Emily
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-06-16
Papua New Guinea Agri Food Trade Trends Dietary Change And Obesity written by Schmidt, Emily and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-16 with Political Science categories.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. During the last several months, IFPRI has been analyzing a variety of Papua New Guinea (PNG) national and global datasets with the goal of expanding analytical tools to evaluate potential production shortfalls and food price shocks, and their associated impacts on household food security and livelihoods. This research note focuses on agri-food import and export trends during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in related import demand and export potential in PNG. In doing so, this research note informs an upcoming economy-wide multi market model analysis that will model a variety of potential shocks to household welfare to identify policies to manage potential ensuing food security threats. PNG’s growth in international agri-food trade (both export and import) will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa, palm oil) depend on the cash economy to supplement overall food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports (as well as domestic goods) for consumption. Agri-food imports are also contributing to important increases in the availability of protein-dense foods, with the value of poultry imports growing, on average, 30 percent per capita per year from 2001 – 2016. Although PNG’s agri-food import data suggest a greater demand for higher value food items such as animal-sourced foods, the total import value of ultra-processed foods, such as sugary drinks, are also increasing rapidly within PNG. The profitability and growth of agricultural exports and imports are driven by several factors, including levels of public investment in infrastructure, weather and climate shocks, security and political stability, and conditions in the world market. Government economic policies, including exchange rate, trade and price policies, also heavily influence agricultural trade. Policy to promote and facilitate domestic movement of goods, as well as macro-economic policies that influence the relative price of tradable to non-tradable goods (the real exchange rate) should be managed appropriately to support and incentivize greater agri-food production and trade. These policies could also be paired with an expanded set of education programs that integrate nutrition-sensitive information to address current increases in demand and consumption of high-saturated and sugary processed goods, of which total import values are rapidly increasing in PNG. Finally, a greater portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools and policy resources are warranted to facilitate real-time policy analysis that can inform key development investments and initiatives.
Rural Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea Food Security And Nutrition Challenges
DOWNLOAD
Author : Schmidt, Emily
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date :
Rural Household Welfare In Papua New Guinea Food Security And Nutrition Challenges written by Schmidt, Emily and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Political Science categories.
Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based dietary guidelines.
Agri Food Trade Trends In Papua New Guinea Reflections On Covid 19 Policies And Dietary Change
DOWNLOAD
Author : Schmidt, Emily
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2020-09-04
Agri Food Trade Trends In Papua New Guinea Reflections On Covid 19 Policies And Dietary Change written by Schmidt, Emily and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-04 with Political Science categories.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. Papua New Guinea’s growing international trade in food and other agricultural products will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households in the country. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops, such as coffee, cocoa, or palm oil, depend on the cash economy to supplement their food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports, as well as domestic goods, for consumption. This project note focuses on trends in agrifood imports and exports during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in import demand and export potential for PNG. In doing so, it informs an upcoming economy-wide multi-market model analysis that will evaluate a variety of potential shocks to PNG’s agri-food system on household welfare in order to identify policies to manage potential food security threats. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of many diverse shocks that may adversely affect the economy of PNG over the next decade. The expansion of a portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools, and policy resources, such as the multimarket model, is warranted to facilitate real-time policy analyses to inform key development investments and initiatives.
Evaluating The Welfare Effects Of Nonfarm Enterprises On Rural Households In Papua New Guinea
DOWNLOAD
Author : Schmidt, Emily
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2019-07-30
Evaluating The Welfare Effects Of Nonfarm Enterprises On Rural Households In Papua New Guinea written by Schmidt, Emily and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-30 with Political Science categories.
Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the country with the largest rural population share in the East Asia and Pacific region. In addition, PNG is affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic events that in severe years cause significant food insecurity due to failed agricultural production. Shrinking land holdings for agricultural production due to the growing population together with climate risk motivates many rural households to explore off-farm income generating opportunities. The analysis reported on here evaluates the importance of nonfarm employment in rural areas in PNG in diversifying risk to household welfare (associated with weather shocks, crop pests and diseases, agricultural price fluctuations, etc.), in smoothing seasonal income fluctuations, and in absorbing excess labor in households with limited agricultural resources. Our study draws upon a wide-ranging literature focused on the role of nonfarm enterprises in the livelihood strategies of rural households globally, e.g., de Janvry and Sadoulet 2001; Lanjouw and Lanjouw 2001; Jayne et al. 2003; Barrett et al. 2005; Haggblade et al. 2007; Lay et al. 2008. We use data collected from rural households in PNG between May and July 2018 by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The survey was administered to 1,026 households in 70 communities across specific districts in East Sepik, Madang, and West Sepik provinces and in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville. Respondent households were asked detailed questions about any nonfarm enterprises (NFE) in which they were involved, including questions on ownership, labor characteristics, and income generation. We explore how engaging in an NFE affects household welfare. In doing so, we evaluate two questions: 1) What barriers to entry exist for male- versus female-owned NFEs? 2) Do the welfare effects of NFE ownership differ by the sex of the owner? Overall, we find that households with an NFE have significantly higher annual per capita consumption compared to matched households without an NFE, amounting to an average increase in the value of annual household consumption of 180 kina (PGK) per capita. In addition, households with an NFE consume approximately 9.5 grams more protein per person per day and achieve greater diversity in their diets compared to households without an NFE. We find that the positive effects of NFE ownership on welfare outcomes are largely driven by male-owned and jointly-owned (male and female) NFEs. The welfare outcomes attributable to female-owned NFEs are much smaller.
Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis
DOWNLOAD
Author : Dorosh, Paul A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-07-07
Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-07-07 with Political Science categories.
Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population. This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks. The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.
Agricultural Extension And Rural Advisory Services What Have We Learned What S Next
DOWNLOAD
Author : Davis, Kristin E.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-10-29
Agricultural Extension And Rural Advisory Services What Have We Learned What S Next written by Davis, Kristin E. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-29 with Political Science categories.
Agricultural extension provides the critical connection from agricultural innovation and discovery to durable improvements at scale, as farmers and other actors in the rural economy learn, adapt, and innovate with new technologies and practices. However, lack of capacity and performance of agricultural extension in lower- and middle-income countries is an ongoing concern. Research on agricultural extension and advisory services (in short, extension) has been an integral part of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) since its inception. This brief synthesizes key findings from research funded by and linked to PIM from 2012 to 2021, presenting lessons learned and a vision for the future of extension. A list of all PIM-related extension and advisory services research is provided at the end. Designing and implementing effective provision of extension is complex, and efforts to strengthen extension services often fall into a trap of adopting “best practice” blueprint approaches that are not well-tailored to local conditions. An expansive literature examines the promises and pitfalls of common approaches, including training-and-visit extension systems, farmer field schools, and many others (Anderson and Feder 2004; Anderson et al. 2006; Waddington and White 2014; Scoones and Thompson 2009). To understand extension systems and build evidence for what works and where, the “best-fit” framework, a widely recognized approach developed by Birner and colleagues (2009) and adapted by Davis and Spielman (2017), offers a simple impact chain approach (Figure 1). The framework focuses on a defined set of extension service characteristics that affect performance: governance structures and funding; organizational and management capacities and cultures; methods; and community engagement — all of which are subject to external factors such as the policy environment, agroecological conditions, and farming-system heterogeneity. To enhance extension performance and, ultimately, a wide range of outcomes and impacts, new and innovative interventions can be applied and adapted within this set of extension characteristics.