Risk And Decision Analysis In Projects

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Risk And Decision Analysis In Projects

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Author : John R. Schuyler
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001

Risk And Decision Analysis In Projects written by John R. Schuyler and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Business & Economics categories.

Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.

Quantitative Risk Management And Decision Making In Construction

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Author : Amarjit Singh
language : en
Publisher: ASCE Press
Release Date : 2017

Quantitative Risk Management And Decision Making In Construction written by Amarjit Singh and has been published by ASCE Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Construction industry categories.

Singh introduces valuable techniques for weighing and evaluating alternatives in decision making with a focus on risk analysis for identifying, quantifying, and mitigating risks associated with construction projects.

Multicriteria And Multiobjective Models For Risk Reliability And Maintenance Decision Analysis

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Author : Adiel Teixeira de Almeida
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-07-01

Multicriteria And Multiobjective Models For Risk Reliability And Maintenance Decision Analysis written by Adiel Teixeira de Almeida and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This book integrates multiple criteria concepts and methods for problems within the Risk, Reliability and Maintenance (RRM) context. The concepts and foundations related to RRM are considered for this integration with multicriteria approaches. In the book, a general framework for building decision models is presented and this is illustrated in various chapters by discussing many different decision models related to the RRM context. The scope of the book is related to ways of how to integrate Applied Probability and Decision Making. In Applied Probability, this mainly includes: decision analysis and reliability theory, amongst other topics closely related to risk analysis and maintenance. In Decision Making, it includes a broad range of topics in MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) and MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding; also known as Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis). In addition to decision analysis, some of the topics related to Mathematical Programming area are briefly considered, such as multiobjective optimization, since methods related to these topics have been applied to the context of RRM. The book addresses an innovative treatment for the decision making in RRM, thereby improving the integration of fundamental concepts from the areas of both RRM and decision making. This is accomplished by presenting an overview of the literature on decision making in RRM. Some pitfalls of decision models when applying them to RRM in practice are discussed and guidance on overcoming these drawbacks is offered. The procedure enables multicriteria models to be built for the RRM context, including guidance on choosing an appropriate multicriteria method for a particular problem faced in the RRM context. The book also includes many research advances in these topics. Most of the multicriteria decision models that are described are specific applications that have been influenced by this research and the advances in this field. Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis is implicitly structured in three parts, with 12 chapters. The first part deals with MCDM/A concepts methods and decision processes. The second part presents the main concepts and foundations of RRM. Finally the third part deals with specific decision problems in the RRM context approached with MCDM/A models.

Data Analytics For Engineering And Construction Project Risk Management

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Author : Ivan Damnjanovic
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020

Data Analytics For Engineering And Construction Project Risk Management written by Ivan Damnjanovic and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with Engineering categories.

This book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes. The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts' judgments. While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory. The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters. In Part I the authors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution.

Construction Risk Management Decision Making

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Author : Alex C. Arthur
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2021-12-13

Construction Risk Management Decision Making written by Alex C. Arthur and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-13 with Technology & Engineering categories.

CONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING Explores the relevance of systems thinking and behavioral science in construction risk management Effective risk management is a vital component of all successful construction projects. Although quantitative tools for evaluating data and minimizing risk are readily available, construction managers commonly adopt a more innate, experience-based approach. In Construction Risk Management Decision Making, project manager and senior consultant Alex C. Arthur provides step-by-step advice on assessing and prioritizing risk using qualitative decision-making systems in the construction industry. Incorporating key theories and concepts from systems thinking and behavioral science, this highly practical guide focuses on the behavior patterns of real people in the industry, rather than complex quantitative techniques and data. Concise, easy-to-understand chapters highlight the current practices of construction risk management while helping readers view risk and decision making from a broader perspective. Throughout the book, the author presents invaluable insights into the ways construction professionals think and behave in the real world. Addresses the actual risk management practices of construction professionals Applies human behavioral theories to the study of construction risk management decision making Illustrates the highly intuitive approaches prevalent in various construction projects Features real-life case studies and practical examples throughout Construction Risk Management Decision Making is an excellent textbook for advanced students in project management, engineering, construction, and surveying courses, and a must-have guide for practitioners of construction management, surveying, and architecture.

Projectthink

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Author : Mr Lev Virine
language : en
Publisher: Gower Publishing, Ltd.
Release Date : 2013-10-28

Projectthink written by Mr Lev Virine and has been published by Gower Publishing, Ltd. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-28 with Business & Economics categories.

Projects are constantly beset by problems, often caused by seemingly small mistakes which collectively lead to larger issues. Why do project managers and teams appear to repeat the same mistakes? Can they make better choices without introducing complex decision analysis processes? How can they make better estimates? Project management is the art and science of human interactions. ProjectThink identifies and explains the paths of those intentional and unintentional actions that lead to trouble. It provides advice and guidance in analysing information and risk and explains how ‘choice-engineering’ can facilitate decision-making and encourage everyone involved in a project to follow the right procedures and work collaboratively.

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis For Risk Assessment And Management

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Author : Jingzheng Ren
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2022-11-14

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis For Risk Assessment And Management written by Jingzheng Ren and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-14 with Science categories.

This book provides in-depth guidance on how to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for risk assessment and risk management. The frontiers of engineering operations management methods for identifying the risks, investigating their roles, analyzing the complex cause-effect relationships, and proposing countermeasures for risk mitigation are presented in this book. There is a total of ten chapters, mainly including the indicators and organizational models for risk assessment, the integrated Bayesian Best-Worst method and classifiable TOPSIS model for risk assessment, new risk prioritization model, fuzzy risk assessment under uncertainties, assessment of COVID-19 transmission risk based on fuzzy inference system, risk assessment and mitigation based on simulation output analysis, energy supply risk analysis, risk assessment and management in cash-in-transit vehicle routing problems, and sustainability risks of resource-exhausted cities. The most significant feature of this book is that it provides various systematic multi-criteria decision analysis methods for risk assessment and management, and illustrates the application of these methods in different fields. This book is beneficial to policymakers, decision-makers, experts, researchers and students related to risk assessment and management.

Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple

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Author : Lev Virine
language : en
Publisher: Imperial College Press
Release Date : 2017-01-05

Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple written by Lev Virine and has been published by Imperial College Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-05 with Business & Economics categories.

Project management is the art of analyzing and managing risks. Without risk, there is little need for project management. Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple offers a step-by-step guide on how to perform project risk analysis and risk management for a wide range of readers: students, project schedulers not exposed to project risk analysis before, and to project risk experts. With this book, you will learn how to:Easily recognizable real-life stories and projects provide a compelling narrative while imparting valuable information on both the theory and practice of project risk management. You will not only understand why project risk management is important to the success of their projects, but you will also know how it can be implemented in your organization and the appropriate tools to use.

Decision Making On Mega Projects

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Author : Hugo Priemus
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2008

Decision Making On Mega Projects written by Hugo Priemus and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.

This book enlarges the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost-benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.

Risk Assessment And Decision Making In Business And Industry

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Author : Glenn Koller
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2005-03-30

Risk Assessment And Decision Making In Business And Industry written by Glenn Koller and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-03-30 with Business & Economics categories.

Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, i