Risk Evaluation And Financial Crises
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Risk Evaluation And Financial Crises
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Author : Vadim Tsudikman
language : en
Publisher: Pearson Education
Release Date : 2011-07-13
Risk Evaluation And Financial Crises written by Vadim Tsudikman and has been published by Pearson Education this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The classification, measurement, and management of risk are central problems in the investment process. Over the past 25 years, Value at Risk (VaR) became the common universal standard in risk measurement. However, the financial crisis of 2007/2009 clearly demonstrated great discrepancies in risk estimates based on this indicator. In this report, three of the field’s leading experts objectively consider each key criticism of VaR in recent professional literature, including VaR’s underestimation of the magnitude and frequency of extreme outcomes, the difficulty of obtaining reliable VaR estimates for complex portfolios, the limited value of historical data, imperfections in the effective market hypothesis that underlies VaR, and several more. Next, the authors carefully review refinements and alternatives that have been proposed as potential replacements or complements, including Conditional VaR (Expected Shortfall), Shock VaR, modifications in the handling of parameters uncertainty, liquidity adjustment, higher moments, and more. They conclude by discussing why a sound risk management system continues to require deep understanding of complex adaptive and often irrational market mechanisms and still cannot be reduced to a mere combination of indicators, no matter how sophisticated they are.
Bio Inspired Credit Risk Analysis
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Author : Lean Yu
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2008-06-03
Bio Inspired Credit Risk Analysis written by Lean Yu and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Credit risk analysis is one of the most important topics in the field of financial risk management. Due to recent financial crises and regulatory concern of Basel II, credit risk analysis has been the major focus of financial and banking industry. Especially for some credit-granting institutions such as commercial banks and credit companies, the ability to discriminate good customers from bad ones is crucial. The need for reliable quantitative models that predict defaults accurately is imperative so that the interested parties can take either preventive or corrective action. Hence credit risk analysis becomes very important for sustainability and profit of enterprises. In such backgrounds, this book tries to integrate recent emerging support vector machines and other computational intelligence techniques that replicate the principles of bio-inspired information processing to create some innovative methodologies for credit risk analysis and to provide decision support information for interested parties.
Credit Risk Management In And Out Of The Financial Crisis
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Author : Anthony Saunders
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2010-04-16
Credit Risk Management In And Out Of The Financial Crisis written by Anthony Saunders and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-04-16 with Business & Economics categories.
A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis. Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurring Understanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.
Managing Country Risk In An Age Of Globalization
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Author : Michel Henry Bouchet
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-08-04
Managing Country Risk In An Age Of Globalization written by Michel Henry Bouchet and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global economy together with new risks such as terrorism, systemic risk, environmental risk, and the rising trend of global volatility and contagion. The book also assesses the limited usefulness of traditional yardsticks of Country Risk, such as ratings and rankings, which at best reflect the market consensus without predictive value and at worst amplify risk aversion and generate crisis contamination. This book goes further than comparing a wide range of risk management methods in that it provides operational and forward-looking warning signs of Country Risk. The combination of the authors’ academic and market-based backgrounds makes the book a useful tool for scholars, analysts, and practitioners.
Risk Assessment And Financial Regulation In Emerging Markets Banking
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Author : Alexander M. Karminsky
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-05-11
Risk Assessment And Financial Regulation In Emerging Markets Banking written by Alexander M. Karminsky and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This book describes various approaches in modelling financial risks and compiling ratings. Focusing on emerging markets, it illustrates how risk assessment is performed and analyses the use of machine learning methods for financial risk assessment and measurement. It not only offers readers insights into the differences between emerging and developed markets, but also helps them understand the development of risk management approaches for banks. Highlighting current problems connected with the evaluation and modelling of financial risks in the banking sector of emerging markets, the book presents the methodologies applied to credit and market financial risks and integrated and payment risks, and discusses the outcomes. In addition it explores the systemic risks and innovations in banking and risk management by analyzing the features of risk measurement in emerging countries. Lastly, it demonstrates the aggregation of approaches to financial risk for emerging financial markets, comparing the experiences of various countries, including Russia, Belarus, China and Brazil.
Financial Risk Forecasting
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Author : Jon Danielsson
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-04-20
Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Sovereign Risk And Financial Crises
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Author : Michael Frenkel
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-14
Sovereign Risk And Financial Crises written by Michael Frenkel and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.
Plight Of The Fortune Tellers
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Author : Riccardo Rebonato
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2007-09-17
Plight Of The Fortune Tellers written by Riccardo Rebonato and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-09-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Today's top financial-risk professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and it puts us all at risk. This is the case that Riccardo Rebonato makes in Plight of the Fortune Tellers--and coming from someone who is both an experienced market professional and an academic, this heresy is worth listening to. Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning, and he shows us how to do it using probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory. This is the only way to effectively manage financial risk in a manner congruent with how human beings actually react to chance. Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about probability in financial-risk management. Risk managers have become obsessed with measuring risk and believe that these quantitative results by themselves can guide sound financial choices--but they can't. In this book, Rebonato offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution, one that seeks to remind us that managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty. Plight of the Fortune Tellers is not only a book for the decision makers of Wall Street, it's a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. The stakes have never been higher--can you risk it?
How To Assess Country Risk
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-05-07
How To Assess Country Risk written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-07 with Business & Economics categories.
The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.
The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On Emerging Financial Markets
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Author : Jonathan Batten
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2011-03-02
The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On Emerging Financial Markets written by Jonathan Batten and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-02 with Business & Economics categories.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 has highlighted the resilience of the financial markets and economies from the developing world. This title investigates and assesses the impact and response to the crisis from an emerging markets perspective including asset pricing, contagion, financial intermediation, market structure and regulation.