Risk Opportunity Uncertainty And Other Random Models
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Risk Opportunity Uncertainty And Other Random Models
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Author : Alan R. Jones
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-09-13
Risk Opportunity Uncertainty And Other Random Models written by Alan R. Jones and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’ Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Probability Statistics And Other Frightening Stuff
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Author : Alan R. Jones
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-10-09
Probability Statistics And Other Frightening Stuff written by Alan R. Jones and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values. A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size. Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-12-17
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-17 with Mathematics categories.
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Best Fit Lines Curves
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Author : Alan R. Jones
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-10-09
Best Fit Lines Curves written by Alan R. Jones and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our prediction. A range of simple ‘Moving Measures’ are suggested to smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of most Moving Measure Techniques is provided. Simple Linear Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that calculates the line of best fit subject to defined ‘goodness of fit’ criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point Estimates. With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring families of non-linear relationships can be transformed mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data (Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Principles Process And Practice Of Professional Number Juggling
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Author : Alan R. Jones
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-09-13
Principles Process And Practice Of Professional Number Juggling written by Alan R. Jones and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling (Volume 1 of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference between an Estimating Process, Procedure, Approach, Method and Technique. It expands on these definitions of Approach (Top-down, Bottom-up and ‘Ethereal’) and Method (Analogy, Parametric and ‘Trusted Source’) and discusses how these form the basis of all other means of establishing an estimate. This volume also underlines the importance of ‘data normalisation’ in any estimating procedure, and demonstrates that the Estimating by Analogy Method, in essence, is a simple extension of Data Normalisation. The author looks at simple measures of assessing the maturity or health of an estimate, and offers a means of assessing a spreadsheet for any inherent risks or errors that may be introduced by failing to follow good practice in spreadsheet design and build. This book provides a taster of the more numerical techniques covered in the remainder of the series by considering how an estimator can potentially exploit Benford’s Law (traditionally used in Fraud Detection) to identify systematic bias from third party contributors. It will be a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Learning Unlearning And Re Learning Curves
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Author : Alan R. Jones
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-09-13
Learning Unlearning And Re Learning Curves written by Alan R. Jones and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Learning, Unlearning and Re-learning Curves (Volume IV of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) focuses in on Learning Curves, and the various tried and tested models of Wright, Crawford, DeJong, Towill-Bevis and others. It explores the differences and similarities between the various models and examines the key properties that Estimators and Forecasters can exploit. A discussion about Learning Curve Cost Drivers leads to the consideration of a little used but very powerful technique of Learning Curve modelling called Segmentation, which looks at an organisation’s complex learning curve as the product of multiple shallower learning curves. Perhaps the biggest benefit is that it simplifies the calculations in Microsoft Excel where there is a change in the rate of learning observed or expected. The same technique can be used to model and calibrate discontinuities in the learning process that result in setbacks and uplifts in time or cost. This technique is compared with other, better known techniques such as Anderlohr’s. Equivalent Unit Learning is another, relative new technique that can be used alongside traditional completed unit learning to give an early warning of changes in the rates of learning. Finally, a Learning Curve can be exploited to estimate the penalty of collaborative working across multiple partners. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists, as well as students of cost engineering.
Modeling Risk
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Author : Johnathan Mun
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2006-07-21
Modeling Risk written by Johnathan Mun and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This completely revised and updated edition of Applied Risk Analysis includes new case studies in modeling risk and uncertainty as well as a new risk analysis CD-ROM prepared by Dr. Mun. On the CD-ROM you'll find his Risk Simulator and Real Options Super Lattice Solver software as well as many useful spreadsheet models. "Johnathan Mun's book is a sparkling jewel in my finance library. Mun demonstrates a deep understanding of the underlying mathematical theory in his ability to reduce complex concepts to lucid explanations and applications. For this reason, he's my favorite writer in this field." —Janet Tavakoli, President, Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc. and author of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Structured Finance "A must-read for product portfolio managers . . . it captures the risk exposure of strategic investments, and provides management with estimates of potential outcomes and options for risk mitigation." —Rafael E. Gutierrez, Executive Director of Strategic Marketing and Planning, Seagate Technology, Inc. "Once again, Dr. Mun has created a 'must-have, must-read' book for anyone interested in the practical application of risk analysis. Other books speak in academic generalities, or focus on one area of risk application. [This book] gets to the heart of the matter with applications for every area of risk analysis. You have a real option to buy almost any book?you should exercise your option and get this one!" —Glenn Kautt, MBA, CFP, EA, President and Chairman, The Monitor Group, Inc. Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.
Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Svetlozar T. Rachev
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-04-22
Risk And Uncertainty written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization The finance industry is seeing increased interest in new risk measures and techniques for portfolio optimization when parameters of the model are uncertain. This groundbreaking book extends traditional approaches of risk measurement and portfolio optimization by combining distributional models with risk or performance measures into one framework. Throughout these pages, the expert authors explain the fundamentals of probability metrics, outline new approaches to portfolio optimization, and discuss a variety of essential risk measures. Using numerous examples, they illustrate a range of applications to optimal portfolio choice and risk theory, as well as applications to the area of computational finance that may be useful to financial engineers. They also clearly show how stochastic models, risk assessment, and optimization are essential to mastering risk, uncertainty, and performance measurement. Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization provides quantitative portfolio managers (including hedge fund managers), financial engineers, consultants, and academic researchers with answers to the key question of which risk measure is best for any given problem.
Risk Uncertainty And Profit
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Author : Frank Hyneman Knight
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1967
Risk Uncertainty And Profit written by Frank Hyneman Knight and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1967 with categories.
Risk Uncertainty And Profit
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Author : Knight
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1961
Risk Uncertainty And Profit written by Knight and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1961 with categories.