Scenarios
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Scenario Planning
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Author : Woody Wade
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-03-27
Scenario Planning written by Woody Wade and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized, business tool that can be of immense value to a company's strategic planning process. It allows companies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on their competitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emerge beyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you: Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could change the political, social, and economic landscapes and significantly impact your business Explore the impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business Examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems today This visual book will help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?
Scenarios For Success
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Author : Bill Sharpe
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2007-11-19
Scenarios For Success written by Bill Sharpe and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-11-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Properly researched and intelligently deployed, scenario planning is today’s most powerful tool for understanding and preparing for an uncertain future. Yet it remains a niche approach, poorly understood by leaders at large. To bring it into the strategy mainstream, leaders need advice on how to turn concepts (scenarios) into actions (strategy). Scenarios for Success delivers a unique and coherent account of the state of the scenario planning art. It is aimed particularly at those trying to implement its findings. Striking a balance between theory and practice, the contributors show how and why the core techniques of scenario thinking have endured and are still valuable, while bringing new tools and processes that keep scenario planning in touch with modern realities.
The Essence Of Scenarios
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Author : Roland Kupers
language : en
Publisher: Amsterdam University Press
Release Date : 2015-12-15
The Essence Of Scenarios written by Roland Kupers and has been published by Amsterdam University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-15 with Social Science categories.
In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or scenarios, Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the presentan assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the companys innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.
Foundations Of Scenario Planning
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Author : Thomas J Chermack
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2017-02-03
Foundations Of Scenario Planning written by Thomas J Chermack and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lead a team that foresaw the oil crises of the 1970’s and 80’s. This new volume will cover the basic context of his life timeline and attach it to the development of his thinking about scenario planning over the course of his career. After his death, Wack’s materials, papers and documents were collected by Napier Collyns and have recently been made available at the University of Oxford where the Pierre Wack Memorial Library has been established. These documents contain a variety of clues and stories that reveal more about who Pierre Wack was, how he thought and will provide details about scenario planning that have never been seen or published. They also reveal a curious man and include a timeline written by his wife, Eve, which details their relationship over the course of 40 years. Written for management and business historians and researchers, this book will uncover unseen contributions by a scenario planning pioneer shaped by significant events in his personal life that helped him to see the world differently.
Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures
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Author : Michael F. Oppenheimer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2015-12-01
Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-01 with Political Science categories.
Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
Scenario Planning
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Author : Gill Ringland
language : en
Publisher: Choir Press
Release Date : 2014-03
Scenario Planning written by Gill Ringland and has been published by Choir Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-03 with Business & Economics categories.
A guide to help business managers implement scenario techniques to manage the uncertainties of the future.
Strategic Reframing
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Author : Rafael Ramirez
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2016
Strategic Reframing written by Rafael Ramirez and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditional strategy assumes stability and predictability. Today's world is better characterised by turbulence, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity - conditions that contribute disruptive changes and trigger the search for new ways of coping. This book aims to become the premier guide on how to do scenario planning to support strategy and public policy. Co-authored by three experts in the field, the book presents The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA). The approach is both intellectually rigorous and practical. Methodological choices and theoretical aspects in practice are detailed in reference to the relevant literatures and grounded in 6 case studies the authors have been involved with. The book makes several contributions to the field, centred on how learning with scenario planning is supported by re-framing and re-perception; how this iterative process can be embedded in corporate or government settings, and how it helps those that it supports to do well in today's world. The book is written in an accessible style and will be a useful introductory text as well as a useful guide for the more experienced scenario planning practitioner and scholar.
Using Scenarios
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Author : Thomas J. Chermack
language : en
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Release Date : 2022-02-01
Using Scenarios written by Thomas J. Chermack and has been published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first book to offer detailed guidance on how scenarios can be used to help organizations make their toughest decisions in a world of ever-escalating crisis and opportunity. To reap the full benefits of scenarios, you have to be able to apply them in the real world. This groundbreaking book goes beyond the theoretical to clearly explain different ways scenarios can be used in business decision-making—from strategic planning and financial modeling to crisis response. Connecting scenarios to strategy and action can have many benefits, including the ability to react quickly, anticipate major changes in the environment, and identify major opportunities. Thomas Chermack, a top expert on scenario planning, offers seven specific ways organizations can use scenarios and provides a wide variety of examples, along with proven processes, exercises, and workshops that have been used successfully in organizations across industries and countries for more than fifteen years.
Scenario Based Strategic Planning
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Author : Burkhard Schwenker
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-12-05
Scenario Based Strategic Planning written by Burkhard Schwenker and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-05 with Business & Economics categories.
In a world characterized by increasing complexity and volatility, managers must be able to flexibly adapt their strategies to changing environmental conditions. Traditional strategic management frameworks often fail in this context. Therefore, we present "scenario-based strategic planning" as a framework for strategic management in an uncertain world. Previous approaches to scenario planning were complex and focused on the long term, but the approach developed by Roland Berger and the Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management is different. By designing appropriate tools and integrating scenario planning into strategic planning, we have made our approach less complex and easier for firms to apply. We illustrate the approach with examples from different industries.
How To Analyze And Compare Scenarios Evaluation Of Scenarios Dealing With The Future Of Our Energy System Desertec Eu Roadmap 2050 Greenpeace R Evolution World Energy Outlook Shell Energy Scenarios
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Author : Stefan Krammer
language : en
Publisher: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
Release Date : 2013-06-01
How To Analyze And Compare Scenarios Evaluation Of Scenarios Dealing With The Future Of Our Energy System Desertec Eu Roadmap 2050 Greenpeace R Evolution World Energy Outlook Shell Energy Scenarios written by Stefan Krammer and has been published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag) this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Right now, our energy system is highly dependent on fossil sources. This dependency causes two major problems: First, it causes the scarcity of these non-renewable energy sources, and climate change. There are two alternatives to fossil energy sources that are on the one hand, nuclear energy, and on the other hand, renewable energy sources. The process of nuclear energy is fascinating for the energy outcome of one kilogram of uranium equals the stored energy of about 3.000 tons of coal. Nuclear energy can reduce the problems that cause climate change for, the process is carbon neutral but, it leads to several other problems as nuclear proliferation, incidents, and the unsolved problem of waste disposal. Renewable energy sources are carbon neutral, and by definition renewable, and therefore, they could solve both major problems of the energy sector. Right now, the drawbacks are at first that most of them are not competitive, and need to be subsidized by governments, and second, the technical challenge to store the produced energy. It is easy to understand that the future of the energy sector is highly uncertain, and that under these circumstances, tools are of no use as far as they are extrapolating past trends. In the last years, several energy scenarios have been conducted in order to display the major uncertainties. It is not surprising that the results are strongly varying, and therefore, the results lead to the question of the characteristics and the quality of the scenarios. But, there has been no analysis of the characteristics and the quality of energy scenarios so far. However, the author analyzes these in this study. The author begins with a short introduction about the history of scenarios, and continues with the development of a general framework of the scenario development process. Further, he lists its possible variations. The scenario typology that consists of 15 variables that can be used to examine the characteristics and the quality of scenarios is then applied at a total of 5 scenarios. The sample of scenarios was chosen to display the broad range of different scenario developers. It consists of the DESERTEC scenario of a charitable trust, the EU-Roadmap 2050 of a political institution, the Greenpeace [R]evolution of an NGO, the World Energy Outlook of an intergovernmental institution, and the Shell Energy scenarios of a company that deal within the energy sector.