Seasonality Revisited
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Seasonality Revisited
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Author : Kevin B. Burk
language : en
Publisher: Serendipity Press
Release Date : 2021-05-05
Seasonality Revisited written by Kevin B. Burk and has been published by Serendipity Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-05 with categories.
Seasonality RevisitedThe Use of Irregular Seasonality in Quantitative Time Series Analysis and Forecasting This monograph revisits the theory of seasonality by asserting that seasonality is a quality of time, and that the calendar and the clock are not the only ways to measure time. Every season has an effect that can be quantified using Cohen's d, which makes it possible to compare seasonal effects between different seasonal models. The historic variance of the effect sizes can be used to determine the predictive value of an individual season for that data set. Irregular seasonal models, derived from the cycles of the planet Mercury, are compared to regular seasonal models using Calendar Month seasonality as the baseline reference of significance. The quantified significance of Calendar Month seasonality is used as the baseline of comparison to evaluate the potential significance of the irregular Mercury-based seasonal models. The seasonal models are compared across three extensive and unrelated data sets: Transportation On-Time Performance, Car Crash, and Financial Market data. The Mercury-based irregular seasonal models showed a far greater percentage of significant seasons than the Calendar Month model. The ability to compare and contrast seasonal effects in this way demonstrates the practical value of the effect- and variance-based approach to quantifying seasonal influences. It also confirms that irregular seasonal models can reveal patterns in time series data that are otherwise undetectable. To test the value of incorporating irregular seasonal influences in time series forecasting, 76 quarterly forecasts covering a 19-year period from 2000-2018 were generated for each of 430 individual financial data sets (10 stock market indexes, 379 individual stocks, 21 commodities, 10 interest rates and bonds, and 10 currency exchange rates). The aggregate accuracy of twelve different forecast models was then ranked and compared with both mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) The forecast models include five non-seasonal traditional forecast models (ARIMA, ESM, HOLT, MEAN, and NAÏVE), the seasonal forecast generated using the M15 Sign + Speed seasons, and six hybrid seasonal forecasts that combine the seasonal forecast data with the forecast data of each of the traditional forecast models. Two different methods, designated, E3 and M3, were used to generate the seasonal forecasts for the entire data set. For the forecasts that used the E3 model, the hybrid seasonal forecasts were more accurate than their non-seasonal counterparts 71.30% of the time (MAPE) and 66.93% of the time (RMSE). For the forecasts that used the M3 model, the hybrid seasonal forecasts were more accurate than their non-seasonal counterparts 74.37% of the time (MAPE) and 72.33% of the time (RMSE). This clearly demonstrates that including the irregular seasonal influences has a significant chance of improving the accuracy of the forecast. The conclusions of this study are that there is clear and consistent value in this new approach to seasonality, both with quantitative time series analysis and with quantitative time series forecasting. These discoveries are worth further serious consideration and exploration.
Universality Of Nonclassical Nonlinearity
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Author : Pier Paolo Delsanto
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-12-13
Universality Of Nonclassical Nonlinearity written by Pier Paolo Delsanto and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-12-13 with Science categories.
This book presents the results of two major international research projects on phenomenology, theory and applications of Nonclassical Nonlinearity. It conveys concepts, experimental techniques and applications which were previously found in specialized journals. It also allows for an interdisciplinary audience to better understand the range of practical applications, and is timely and interesting to both researchers and professionals.
Seasonality Rural Livelihoods And Development
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Author : Stephen Devereux
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-07-03
Seasonality Rural Livelihoods And Development written by Stephen Devereux and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Seasonality is a severe constraint to sustainable rural livelihoods and a driver of poverty and hunger, particularly in the tropics. Many poor people in developing countries are ill equipped to cope with seasonal variations which can lead to drought or flood and consequences for agriculture, employment, food supply and the spread of disease. The subject has assumed increasing importance as climate change and other forms of development disrupt established seasonal patterns and variations. This book is the first systematic study of seasonality for over twenty years, and it aims to revive academic interest and policy awareness of this crucial but neglected issue. Thematic chapters explore recent shifts with profound implications for seasonality, including climate change, HIV/AIDS, and social protection. Case study chapters explore seasonal dimensions of livelihoods in Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi), Asia (Bangladesh, China, India), and Latin America (Peru). Others assess policy responses to adverse seasonality, for example through irrigation, migration and seasonally-sensitive education. The book also includes innovative tools for monitoring seasonality, which should enable more appropriate responses.
Seasonality Rural Livelihoods And Development
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Author : Stephen Devereux
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-07-03
Seasonality Rural Livelihoods And Development written by Stephen Devereux and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Seasonality is a severe constraint to sustainable rural livelihoods and a driver of poverty and hunger, particularly in the tropics. Many poor people in developing countries are ill equipped to cope with seasonal variations which can lead to drought or flood and consequences for agriculture, employment, food supply and the spread of disease. The subject has assumed increasing importance as climate change and other forms of development disrupt established seasonal patterns and variations. This book is the first systematic study of seasonality for over twenty years, and it aims to revive academic interest and policy awareness of this crucial but neglected issue. Thematic chapters explore recent shifts with profound implications for seasonality, including climate change, HIV/AIDS, and social protection. Case study chapters explore seasonal dimensions of livelihoods in Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi), Asia (Bangladesh, China, India), and Latin America (Peru). Others assess policy responses to adverse seasonality, for example through irrigation, migration and seasonally-sensitive education. The book also includes innovative tools for monitoring seasonality, which should enable more appropriate responses.
Regional Cooperation For Sustainable Food Security In South Asia
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Author : Nagesh Kumar
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2019-08-02
Regional Cooperation For Sustainable Food Security In South Asia written by Nagesh Kumar and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-02 with Social Science categories.
This volume foregrounds the importance of regional cooperation in the context of food security challenges in South Asia. South Asia holds the key to global achievement of SDG targets of ending hunger and malnutrition – it accounts for nearly one-third of food-insecure people on the planet, with every third child suffering from stunting due to malnutrition. Similar food preferences, production systems, and the transboundary nature of agrarian ecosystems call for coordinated action by South Asian countries, complementing national actions dealing with food security challenges. In this volume, leading experts discuss the perspectives of key South Asian countries in leveraging regional cooperation for addressing food security challenges and reflect on the potential of cooperative actions in different areas. The book proposes a ten-point regional policy agenda covering cooperation for combatting climate change, regional trade liberalization, operationalization of regional food reserves, leveraging technology, sharing of good practices, regional institution building, coordinated positions in multilateral trade negotiations, addressing trans-boundary outbreak of livestock diseases, strengthening food safety standards, and the management of shared natural resources. A key volume on accomplishing SDGs in the South Asian context, this book will be of immense interest to policy makers, researchers, and development practitioners. It is also essential reading for scholars and researchers in the areas of development studies, South Asia studies, food security, environment and sustainability.
Food Security Food Prices And Climate Variability
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Author : Molly E. Brown
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-06-05
Food Security Food Prices And Climate Variability written by Molly E. Brown and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-05 with Business & Economics categories.
The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. This book uses a decade of primary research to examine how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in food-insecure regions of the world. The author reviews environmental, economics and multidisciplinary research to describe the connection between global environmental change, changing weather conditions and local staple food price variability. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation’s World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. These datasets are used to describe the connection, and to demonstrate the importance of these metrics in overall outcomes in food-insecure communities.
Interrogating Urban Poverty Lines
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Author : Miniva Chibuye
language : en
Publisher: IIED
Release Date : 2011
Interrogating Urban Poverty Lines written by Miniva Chibuye and has been published by IIED this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Political Science categories.
Seasonal Hunger And Public Policies
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Author : Shahidur R. Khandker
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2012-07-10
Seasonal Hunger And Public Policies written by Shahidur R. Khandker and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-10 with Social Science categories.
The book provides an exhaustive inquiry of Bangladesh s seasonal hunger with special focus on the northwest region where it is more pronounced than in other areas. It also presents an evaluation of several policy interventions launched recently in mitigating seasonality.
The Routledge Handbook On Livelihoods In The Global South
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Author : Fiona Nunan
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2022-05-05
The Routledge Handbook On Livelihoods In The Global South written by Fiona Nunan and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-05 with Science categories.
The Routledge Handbook on Livelihoods in the Global South presents a unique, timely, comprehensive overview of livelihoods in low- and middle-income countries. Since their widespread adoption in the 1990s, livelihoods perspectives, frameworks and methods have influenced diverse areas of research, policy and practice. The concept of livelihoods reflects the complexity of strategies and practices used by individuals, households and communities to meet their needs and live their lives. The Handbook brings together insights and critical analysis from diverse approaches and experiences, learning from research and practice over the last 30 years. The Handbook comprises an introductory section on key concepts and frameworks, followed by five parts, on researching livelihoods, negotiating livelihoods, generating livelihoods, enabling livelihoods and contextualising livelihoods. The introduction provides readers with an appreciation of concepts researched and applied in the five parts, including chapters on vulnerability and resilience, social capital and networks, and institutions. Each part reflects the diversity of approaches taken to understanding livelihoods, whilst recognising commonalities, including the centrality of power in shaping, enabling and constraining livelihoods. The book also reflects diversity of context, including conflict, climate change and religion, as well as in generating livelihoods, through agriculture, small-scale mining and pastoralism. The aim of each chapter is to provide a critically informed introduction and overview of key concepts, issues and debates of relevance to the topic, with each chapter concluding with suggestions for further reading. It will be an essential resource to students, researchers and practitioners of international development and related fields. Researchers and practitioners will also benefit from the book's diverse disciplinary contributions and by the wide and contemporary coverage.
Revolutionizing Development
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Author : Andrea Cornwall
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2022-03-28
Revolutionizing Development written by Andrea Cornwall and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-03-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This book tells the story of development studies in practice over the last fifty years through the work of one remarkable individual, Robert Chambers. His work has taken him from being a colonial officer in Kenya through training and managing large rural development projects to a fundamental critique of top-down development and the championing of participatory approaches. The contributors eloquently demonstrate how he has been at the centre of major shifts in development thinking and practice over this period, popularising terms that are now at the centre of the development lexicon such as vulnerability, multi-dimensional poverty, sustainable livelihoods and 'farmer first'. Robert Chambers played a major role in the massive growth in participatory approaches to development, and particularly the application of participatory methods in development research and appraisal. This has led to fundamental challenges to development practice, ranging from approaches to monitoring and evaluation to institutional learning and professional training. There is probably no-one who has had more influence on approaches to development in the past decades. Revolutionizing Development offers a unique overview of these contributions in thirty-two concise chapters from authors who have been intimately involved as collaborators, critics and colleagues of Robert Chambers.