Smooth Forecast Reconciliation

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Smooth Forecast Reconciliation

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Author : Mr. Sakai Ando
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-22

Smooth Forecast Reconciliation written by Mr. Sakai Ando and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.

How to make forecasts that (1) satisfy constraints, like accounting identities, and (2) are smooth over time? Solving this common forecasting problem manually is resource-intensive, but the existing literature provides little guidance on how to achieve both objectives. This paper proposes a new method to smooth mixed-frequency multivariate time series subject to constraints by integrating the minimum-trace reconciliation and Hodrick-Prescott filter. With linear constraints, the method has a closed-form solution, convenient for a high-dimensional environment. Three examples show that the proposed method can reproduce the smoothness of professional forecasts subject to various constraints and slightly improve forecast performance.

Forecasting Principles And Practice

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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08

Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Optimal Forecast Reconciliation For Hierarchical And Grouped Time Series Through Trace Minimization

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Author : Shanika L. Wickramasuriya
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017

Optimal Forecast Reconciliation For Hierarchical And Grouped Time Series Through Trace Minimization written by Shanika L. Wickramasuriya and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.

Time Series Forecasting

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Author : Chris Chatfield
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2000-10-25

Time Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-10-25 with Business & Economics categories.

From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space

Sas For Forecasting Time Series Third Edition

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Author : John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.
language : en
Publisher: SAS Institute
Release Date : 2018-03-14

Sas For Forecasting Time Series Third Edition written by John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D. and has been published by SAS Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-14 with Computers categories.

To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.

Forecasting Methods And Applications 3rd Ed

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Author : Spyros Makridakis
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-09

Forecasting Methods And Applications 3rd Ed written by Spyros Makridakis and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09 with Forecasting categories.

Market_Desc: · Market Researchers· Financial Analysts· Business Planners· Business Economists· Operations Managers· Human Resources Administrators· Business Analysts of various kinds· Other Business Professionals Special Features: · A managerial, business orientation approach is used instead of a mathematical, research focus. Emphasis placed on the practical uses of forecasting.· All data sets used in this text will be available on the Internet.· Coverage now includes the latest techniques used by managers in business today. About The Book: Known from its last editions as the Bible of Forecasting , the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future . In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.

Principles Of Forecasting

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Author : J.S. Armstrong
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2001

Principles Of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Business & Economics categories.

This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

Cross Temporal Probabilistic Forecast Reconciliation

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Author : Daniele Girolimetto
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023

Cross Temporal Probabilistic Forecast Reconciliation written by Daniele Girolimetto and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.

Intermittent Demand Forecasting

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Author : John E. Boylan
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2021-06-02

Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-02 with Medical categories.

INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing

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Author : Rob Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-06-19

Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-19 with Mathematics categories.

Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.