Spatio Temporal Drought Characterization And Forecasting Using Indices And Artificial Neural Networks A Case Of The Upper Tana River Basin Kenya
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Spatio Temporal Drought Characterization And Forecasting Using Indices And Artificial Neural Networks A Case Of The Upper Tana River Basin Kenya
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Author : Raphael Muli Wambua
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2019-04-08
Spatio Temporal Drought Characterization And Forecasting Using Indices And Artificial Neural Networks A Case Of The Upper Tana River Basin Kenya written by Raphael Muli Wambua and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-08 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2016 in the subject Engineering - Civil Engineering, grade: 80.0, Egerton University, course: AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING, language: English, abstract: Drought is a critical stochastic natural disaster that adversely affects water resources, ecosystems and people. Drought is a condition characterized by scarcity of precipitation and/or water quantity that negatively affects the global, regional and local land-scales. At both global and regional scales, drought frequency and severity have been increasing leading to direct and indirect decline in water resources. Increase in drought severity and frequency in the upper Tana River basin, Kenya, water resources systems have been adversely affected. Timely detection and forecasting of drought is crucial in planning and management of water resources. The main objective of this research was to formulate the most appropriate models for assessment and forecasting of drought using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the basin. Hydro-meteorlogical data for the period 1970-2010 at sixteen hydrometric stations was used to test the performance of the indices in forecasting of the future drought at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24-months lead times, by constructing ANN models with different time delays. Drought conditions at monthly temporal resolution were evaluated using selected drought indices. The occurrence of drought was investigated using non-parametric Man-kendall trend test. Spatial distribution of drought severity was determined using Kriging interpolation techinique. In addition, a standard Nonlinear-Integrated Drought Index (NDI), for drought forecasting in the basin was developed using hydro-meteoroogical data for the river basin. The results of spaial drought show that the south-eastern parts of the basin are more prone to drought risks than the north-western areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicates an increasing drought trend in the south-eastern and no trend in north-western areas of the basin. Development of Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) function, NDI and characteristic curves defining the return period and the probability of different drought magnitudes based on Drought Indices (DIs) was achieved. Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves were developed. The formulated NDI tool can be adopted for a synchronized assessment and forecasting of all the three operational drought types in the basin. The results can be used in assisting water resources managers for timely detection and forecasting of drought conditions in prioritized planning of drought preparedness and early warning systems.
Drought Forecasting Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Networks For Sustainable Water Resources Management In Upper Tana River Basin Kenya
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Author : PhD Mutua (Rer. nat., Prof. Dr.-Ing. Benedict Mwavu)
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Drought Forecasting Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Networks For Sustainable Water Resources Management In Upper Tana River Basin Kenya written by PhD Mutua (Rer. nat., Prof. Dr.-Ing. Benedict Mwavu) and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Climate change has continued to impact negatively on water resources globally. For instance, extreme weather conditions especially the drought phenomena have become frequent in Africa. This has prompted water engineers and hydrologists to formulate mitigation and adaptation measures to address these challenges. The frequency of drought event of a defined severity for a defined return period is fundamental in planning, designing, operating and managing water resources systems within a basin. This paper presents an analysis of the hydrological drought frequency for the upper Tana River basin in Kenya using the absolute Stream flow Drought Index (SDI) and modified Gumbel technique. The study used a 41-year (1970-2010) stream flow data and forecasted hydrological droughts for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000-year return periods in relation to the selected stream flows. The results provide an overview of drought trends within the river basin and therefore would be very useful in applying drought adaptation policies by water resource managers.
Spatio Temporal Characterisation Of Drought Data Analytics Modelling Tracking Impact And Prediction
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Author : Vitali Diaz Mercado
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2022-02-10
Spatio Temporal Characterisation Of Drought Data Analytics Modelling Tracking Impact And Prediction written by Vitali Diaz Mercado and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-10 with Science categories.
Studies of drought have increased in light of new data availability and advances in spatio-temporal analysis. However, the following gaps still need to be filled: 1) methods to characterise drought that explicitly consider its spatio-temporal features, such as spatial extent (area) and pathway; 2) methods to monitor and predict drought that include the above-mentioned characteristics and 3) approaches for visualising and analysing drought characteristics to facilitate interpretation of its variation. This research aims to explore, analyse and propose improvements to the spatio-temporal characterisation of drought. Outcomes provide new perspectives towards better prediction. The following objectives were proposed. 1) Improve the methodology for characterising drought based on the phenomenon’s spatial features. 2) Develop a visual approach to analysing drought variations. 3) Develop a methodology for spatial drought tracking. 4) Explore machine learning (ML) techniques to predict crop-yield responses to drought. The four objectives were addressed and results are presented. Finally, a scope was formulated for integrating ML and the spatio-temporal analysis of drought. Proposed scope opens a new area of potential for drought prediction (i.e. predicting spatial drought tracks and areas). It is expected that the drought tracking and prediction method will help populations cope with drought and its severe impacts.
The Drought Risk Analysis Forecasting And Assessment Under Climate Change
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Author : Tae-Woong Kim
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2021-01-06
The Drought Risk Analysis Forecasting And Assessment Under Climate Change written by Tae-Woong Kim and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-01-06 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This Special Issue is a platform to fill the gaps in drought risk analysis with field experience and expertise. It covers (1) robust index development for effective drought monitoring; (2) risk analysis framework development and early warning systems; (3) impact investigations on hydrological and agricultural sectors; (4) environmental change impact analyses. The articles in the Special Issue cover a wide geographic range, across China, Taiwan, Korea, and the Indo-China peninsula, which covers many contrasting climate conditions. Hence, the results have global implications: the data, analysis/modeling, methodologies, and conclusions lay a solid foundation for enhancing our scientific knowledge of drought mechanisms and relationships to various environmental conditions.
Spatiotemporal Dynamics Of Meteorological And Agricultural Drought In China
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Author : Yi Li
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-07-26
Spatiotemporal Dynamics Of Meteorological And Agricultural Drought In China written by Yi Li and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-26 with Nature categories.
This book explores spatiotemporal analysis and impact assessment of agricultural drought in China and investigates the correlation coefficient between meteorological drought and agricultural drought. It then conducts multivariate frequency analysis of drought events using drought indices and copula functions. It aims to reveal spatiotemporal characteristics and impacts of agricultural drought in China both on vegetation phenology and productivity. The book assesses the performances of drought indices for better predicting multi-year droughts and return periods and drought risk assessment.
Spatio Temporal Analysis Of Droughts In Semi Arid Regions By Using Meteorological Drought Indices
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Author : Alireza Shahabfar
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Spatio Temporal Analysis Of Droughts In Semi Arid Regions By Using Meteorological Drought Indices written by Alireza Shahabfar and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Hydrological Drought Forecasting In Africa At Different Spatial And Temporal Scales
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Author : Taylor & Francis Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-09-27
Hydrological Drought Forecasting In Africa At Different Spatial And Temporal Scales written by Taylor & Francis Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-27 with categories.
Analysis Of Spatiotemporal Occurrence Of Drought In Kenya Using Modis Satellite Data
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Author : Donald Owele Akanga
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Analysis Of Spatiotemporal Occurrence Of Drought In Kenya Using Modis Satellite Data written by Donald Owele Akanga and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with Agricultural ecology categories.
Methods And Tools For Drought Analysis And Management
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Author : Giuseppe Rossi
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2010-11-30
Methods And Tools For Drought Analysis And Management written by Giuseppe Rossi and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-30 with Science categories.
Frequent drought events have recently occurred in different Mediterranean regions. These have highlighted a general inadequacy of the current strategies applied to mitigate negative impacts of such phenomenon. This book provides various methods of drought monitoring at different spatial scales, as well as innovative drought forecasting techniques based on stochastic approaches. Besides common drought indices (i.e. SPI), new agrometeorological indices are proposed.
Applied Drought Modeling Prediction And Mitigation
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Author : Zekâi Şen
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2015-08-03
Applied Drought Modeling Prediction And Mitigation written by Zekâi Şen and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-03 with Science categories.
Applied Drought Modelling, Prediction, and Mitigation provides a practical guide to new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions. The modeling procedures covered by the book include recent advancements in regional drought extent, coverage, intensity, and water deficit predictions, which are increasingly significant given current climate change impacts on water resources. Each modeling procedure is explained theoretically prior to the mathematical derivation, and includes book examples, exercises, and case studies that supplement the applied and practical material, thus making the approaches accessible and applicable to the reader. - Presents new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions - Includes online modeling tools to help readers quickly solve drought related problems - Presents methodologies, including drought features (duration, intensity, and magnitude) at any desired risk level - Include case studies from arid and semi-arid regions