Spillovers From China S Growth Slowdown And Rebalancing To The Asean 5 Economies
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Spillovers From China S Growth Slowdown And Rebalancing To The Asean 5 Economies
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Author : Allan Dizioli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-08-09
Spillovers From China S Growth Slowdown And Rebalancing To The Asean 5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-09 with Business & Economics categories.
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Spillovers From The Maturing Of China S Economy
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Author : Allan Dizioli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-15
Spillovers From The Maturing Of China S Economy written by Allan Dizioli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.
China And Asia In Global Trade Slowdown
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Author : Gee Hee Hong
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-08-16
China And Asia In Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.
China Spillovers
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Author : Davide Furceri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-23
China Spillovers written by Davide Furceri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Until recently, China has been the leading contributor to global economic growth and—since the recent global financial crisis—a stabilizing driver of its evolution. However, as China recently began to rebalance its economy away from investment and exports and toward consumption, its GDP growth slowed significantly—partly reversing the country’s contribution to global output and trade growth—and is expected to continue to decline gradually over the medium term. There is little consensus regarding the consequences of a China’s growth slowdown for the rest of the world, with some arguing that a significant slowdown in China may have large implications and possibly lead to a worldwide recession if the “rebalancing” process is not well managed, and others suggesting that even a significant slowdown in China is unlikely to have large global effects, as its role in the world economy is still limited This note contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing how growth shocks in China affect particular regions and country groups and how the impact and key transmission channels of these growth shocks have increased over time. It finds that historically, the average impact of growth shocks in China on global output has been statistically significant but limited, but since the early 2000s, the magnitude of spillovers has significantly increased. Trade linkages remain the main transmission channels, with larger effects for net commodity exporters and countries mostly exporting manufacturing goods. Also, spillover effects tend to be larger during periods of high global uncertainty and have been positively associated with an increase in the share of industry in total value in China, which suggests an important role of the “rebalancing” process.
Investment Led Growth In China
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Author : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-11-06
Investment Led Growth In China written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers from an investment slowdown in China. It finds that a one percentage point slowdown in investment in China is associated with a reduction of global growth of just under one-tenth of a percentage point. The impact is about five times larger than in 2002. Regional supply chain economies and commodity exporters with relatively less diversified economies are most vulnerable to an investment slowdown in China. The spillover effects also register strongly across a range of macroeconomic, trade, and financial variables among G20 trading partners.
Spillover Implications Of China S Slowdown For International Trade
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Author : Patrick Blagrave
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-09-27
Spillover Implications Of China S Slowdown For International Trade written by Patrick Blagrave and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.
China S Economic Growth
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Author : Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-07-01
China S Economic Growth written by Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents some facts on China’s role in the world economy and measures the impact of China’s growth on growth in the rest of the world in the short and long term. Short-run estimates based on VARs and error-correction models suggest that spillover effects of China’s growth have increased in recent decades. Long-term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.
When China Sneezes Does Asean Catch A Cold
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Author : Mr.Sohrab Rafiq
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-27
When China Sneezes Does Asean Catch A Cold written by Mr.Sohrab Rafiq and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding is that the impact of China growth shocks on ASEAN has risen since the global financial crisis. A one percent decline in China’s growth implies a 0.3 percent reduction in growth for ASEAN EMEs and 0.2 for FDEs. An important component of inflation is also shared between ASEAN and China. These magnitudes are double what they were two decades ago due to stronger trade and financial linkages. Finally, a slowdown in China, while having real effects, also has a financial impact via slower credit growth and lower equity prices. This is in line with the existence of both portfolio balance and signaling channels, in which ASEAN market participants absorb news on China economic activity as an indicator over domestic growth prospects.
Regional Economic Outlook April 2012 Asia And Pacific
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-04-27
Regional Economic Outlook April 2012 Asia And Pacific written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Barring the realization of downside risks to the global economy, growth in the Asia and the Pacific region is expected to gain momentum over the course of 2012, according to this report, and now projected at 6 percent in 2012, rising to about 61⁄2 percent in 2013. Stronger economic and policy fundamentals have helped buffer the region's economies against the global financial crisis, by limiting adverse financial market spillovers and ameliorating the impact of deleveraging by European banks, but a sharp fall in exports to advanced economies and a reversal of foreign capital flows would have a severe impact on the region. The region's policymakers now face the difficult task of calibrating the amount of insurance needed to support stable, noninflationary growth. Some Asian and Pacific economies can afford to lengthen the pause in the normalization of their macroeconomic policies that was initiated when the global recovery stalled late in 2011; others may need a faster return to more neutral policy stances. Similarly, the pace of fiscal consolidation should be calibrated to country-specific circumstances. Additional chapters in the report discuss whether China is rebalancing and the particular challenges facing Asian low-income and small island economies.
Quantifying The Spillovers From China Rebalancing Using A Multi Sector Ricardian Trade Model
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Author : Rui Mano
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-15
Quantifying The Spillovers From China Rebalancing Using A Multi Sector Ricardian Trade Model written by Rui Mano and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.