Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Of Economic Structural Change
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Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Of Economic Structural Change
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Author : Peter Hackl
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Of Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.
In 1984, the University of Bonn (FRG) and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg (Austria), created a joint research group to analyze the relationship between economic growth and structural change. The research team was to examine the commodity composition as well as the size and direction of commodity and credit flows among countries and regions. Krelle (1988) reports on the results of this "Bonn-IIASA" research project. At the same time, an informal IIASA Working Group was initiated to deal with prob lems of the statistical analysis of economic data in the context of structural change: What tools do we have to identify nonconstancy of model parameters? What type of models are particularly applicable to nonconstant structure? How is forecasting affected by the presence of nonconstant structure? What problems should be anticipated in applying these tools and models? Some 50 experts, mainly statisticians or econometricians from about 15 countries, came together in Lodz, Poland (May 1985); Berlin, GDR (June 1986); and Sulejov, Poland (September 1986) to present and discuss their findings. This volume contains a selected set of those conference contributions as well as several specially invited chapters.
Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Of Economic Structural Change
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Author : Peter Hackl
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Of Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with categories.
Economic Structural Change
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Author : Peter Hackl
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-06-29
Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".
Economic Structural Change
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Author : Peter Hackl
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1991-05-02
Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-05-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".
The Future Of The World Economy
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Author : Wilhelm Krelle
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
The Future Of The World Economy written by Wilhelm Krelle and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic growth and structural change - the future of the world economy - is analysed in this book. Conditional forecasts are given for the economic development of the most important world market countries till the year 2000. The driving forces of economic growth are identified and forecasted, in connection with collaborating scholars in most of these countries and with international organizations. This information is used in solving a coherent world model. The model consists of linked growth models for each country (or groups of countries). The solutions show that the inequality in international income distribution will further increase and that the CMEA and OECD countries will approximately keep their relative positions, with some changes within these groups. Structural change is also analysed. Additionally separate forecasts prepared by each collaborating country group are given and may be compared with the forecasts by the world model. The book closes with chapters on special features of the future economic development: on the international debt problem, on long waves, on structural change in the world trade, on the emergence of service economics and on the comparison of GDP and NMP national accounting.
Econometrics Of Structural Change
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Author : Walter Krämer
language : en
Publisher: Physica
Release Date : 1989-06-15
Econometrics Of Structural Change written by Walter Krämer and has been published by Physica this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t
Co Trending A Statistical System Analysis Of Economic Trends
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Author : M. Hatanaka
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Co Trending A Statistical System Analysis Of Economic Trends written by M. Hatanaka and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
In macro-econometrics more attention needs to be paid to the relationships among deterministic trends of different variables, or co-trending, especially when economic growth is of concern. The number of relationships, i.e., the co-trending rank, plays an important role in evaluating the veracity of propositions, particularly relating to the Japanese economic growth in view of the structural changes involved within it. This book demonstrates how to determine the co-trending rank from a given set of time series data for different variables. At the same time, the method determines how many of the co-trending relations also represent cointegrations. This enables us to perform statistical inference on the parameters of relations among the deterministic trends. Co-trending is an important contribution to the fields of econometric methods, macroeconomics, and time series analyses.
Time Series Analysis And Adjustment
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Author : Haim Y. Bleikh
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2016-02-24
Time Series Analysis And Adjustment written by Haim Y. Bleikh and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-24 with Business & Economics categories.
In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.
Structural Break Analysis In Agricultural Production Of Bangladesh
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Author : Syed Mohammad Sadat
language : en
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Release Date : 2014-10-08
Structural Break Analysis In Agricultural Production Of Bangladesh written by Syed Mohammad Sadat and has been published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-08 with categories.
Economic structural change refers to a long-term shift in the fundamental structure of an economy, which is often linked to growth and economic development. Structural change is a common problem in time series data and it is observed that after a certain period of time, parameters change their structure or behavior. This can lead to huge forecasting errors and unreliability of the model. Structural break has used mainly to tackle misleading forecasting. In our study structural change of parameters of Cobb-Douglas production function has been examined for the agricultural sector of Bangladesh. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation procedure has been used for estimation purpose. In our study, we have considered the time series data for the period 1980-81 to 2010-11. Stationarity, Multicollinearity, autocorrelation & heteroscedasticity has been checked with different tests and eliminated by remedial measures. To account for structural break points we have used Chow test approach and break point justified by Quandt test, Cumsum test & Cumsum of Squares test.We have used dummy variable approach to identify the coefficient(s) which were responsible for structural changes.
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2011-06-29
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.