Stochastic Dynamics Of Economic Cycles

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Stochastic Dynamics Of Economic Cycles

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Author : Viacheslav Karmalita
language : en
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Release Date : 2020-10-12

Stochastic Dynamics Of Economic Cycles written by Viacheslav Karmalita and has been published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-12 with Mathematics categories.

This book includes discussions related to solutions of such tasks as: probabilistic description of the investment function; recovering the income function from GDP estimates; development of models for the economic cycles; selecting the time interval of pseudo-stationarity of cycles; estimating characteristics/parameters of cycle models; analysis of accuracy of model factors. All of the above constitute the general principles of a theory explaining the phenomenon of economic cycles and provide mathematical tools for their quantitative description. The introduced theory is applicable to macroeconomic analyses as well as econometric estimations of economic cycles.

The Dynamics Of Business Cycles

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Author : Michael Reiter
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

The Dynamics Of Business Cycles written by Michael Reiter and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This study is a revised version of my doctoral dissertation at the Economics Department of the University of Munich. I want to take the opportunity to express my gratitude to some people who have helped me in my work. My greatest thanks go to the supervisor of this dissertation, Professor Claude Billinger. Bis ideas have formed the basis of my work. Be permanently sup ported it with a host of ideas, criticism and encouragement. Furthermore, he provided a stimulating research environment at SEMECON. This study would not have been possible in this form without the help of my present and former colleagues at SEMECON. I am indebted to Rudolf Kohne-Volland, Monika Sebold-Bender and Ulrich Woitek for providing soft ware and guidance for the data analysis. Discussions with them and with Thilo Weser have helped me to take many hurdles, particularly in the early stages of the project. My sincere thanks go to them all. I had the opportunity to present a former version of my growth model at a workshop of Professor Klaus Zimmermann. I want to thank all the parti cipants for their helpful comments. I also acknowledge critical and constructive comments from an anonymous referee. Table of Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I. Methodology 1. Importance of Stylized Facts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.1 Limitations of statistical testing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.2 Evaluating economic models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 11 . . . . . . 2. Further Methodological Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 13 . . . . . .

Nonlinearities In Economics

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Author : Giuseppe Orlando
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-08-31

Nonlinearities In Economics written by Giuseppe Orlando and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-08-31 with Business & Economics categories.

This interdisciplinary book argues that the economy has an underlying non-linear structure and that business cycles are endogenous, which allows a greater explanatory power with respect to the traditional assumption that dynamics are stochastic and shocks are exogenous. The first part of this work is formal-methodological and provides the mathematical background needed for the remainder, while the second part presents the view that signal processing involves construction and deconstruction of information and that the efficacy of this process can be measured. The third part focuses on economics and provides the related background and literature on economic dynamics and the fourth part is devoted to new perspectives in understanding nonlinearities in economic dynamics: growth and cycles. By pursuing this approach, the book seeks to (1) determine whether, and if so where, common features exist, (2) discover some hidden features of economic dynamics, and (3) highlight specific indicators of structural changes in time series. Accordingly, it is a must read for everyone interested in a better understanding of economic dynamics, business cycles, econometrics and complex systems, as well as non-linear dynamics and chaos theory.

Business Cycles

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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2020-10-06

Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Crises And Cycles In Economic Dictionaries And Encyclopaedias

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Author : Daniele Besomi
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-03-01

Crises And Cycles In Economic Dictionaries And Encyclopaedias written by Daniele Besomi and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This book aims at investigating from the perspective of the major economic dictionaries the notions of economic crisis and cycle. The project consists in giving an extensive summary of a number of significant entries on this subject, with an introductory essay to each entry placing them (and the dictionary to which they belong) in their context, giving some details on the author of the dictionary entry, and assessing the entry’s (and its author’s) contribution. The broad picture (including the history of these encyclopedic tools) will be examined in the introductory essays.

Global Business Cycles

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Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-06-01

Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Imf Staff Papers Volume 50 Special Issue Imf Third Annual Research Conference

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Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-08-25

Imf Staff Papers Volume 50 Special Issue Imf Third Annual Research Conference written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-08-25 with Business & Economics categories.

The paper discusses a model in which growth is a negative function of fiscal burden. Moreover, growth discontinuously switches from high to low as the fiscal burden reaches a critical level. The paper provides an overview of key elements of corporate bankruptcy codes and practice around the world that are relevant to the debate on sovereign debt restructuring. It also describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and explains the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets.

Business Cycles And Depressions

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Author : David Glasner
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-12-16

Business Cycles And Depressions written by David Glasner and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.

Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.

The New Palgrave Dictionary Of Economics

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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-05-18

The New Palgrave Dictionary Of Economics written by and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-18 with Law categories.

The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.

Ebook Introducing Advanced Macroeconomics Growth And Business Cycles

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Author : Peter Sørensen
language : en
Publisher: McGraw Hill
Release Date : 2010-03-16

Ebook Introducing Advanced Macroeconomics Growth And Business Cycles written by Peter Sørensen and has been published by McGraw Hill this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-03-16 with Business & Economics categories.

Introducing Advanced Macroeconomics: Growth and Business Cycles, 2nd edition provides students with a thorough understanding of fundamental models in macroeconomics and introduces them to methods of formal macroeconomic analysis. Split into two sections, the first half of the book focuses on macroeconomics for the long run, introducing and developing basic models of growth and structural unemployment. The second half of the book deals with the economy in the short run, focusing on the explanation of business fluctuations. This new edition retains the popular pitch and level established in the 1st edition and continues to bridge the gap between intermediate macroeconomics texts and more advanced textbooks.