Stochastic Dynamics Of Economic Cycles

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Stochastic Dynamics Of Economic Cycles

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Author : Viacheslav Karmalita
language : en
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Release Date : 2020-10-12

Stochastic Dynamics Of Economic Cycles written by Viacheslav Karmalita and has been published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-12 with Mathematics categories.

This book exposes the theory under the phenomenon of economic cycles and provides mathematical tools for their quantitative description. The approach allows to provide the stochastic description of the investment function, to recover the income function from GDP estimates, and to propose the identification procedure for pseudo-stationary models of economic cycles. .

Stochastic Economic Dynamics

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Author : Bjarne S. Jensen
language : en
Publisher: Copenhagen Business School Press DK
Release Date : 2007

Stochastic Economic Dynamics written by Bjarne S. Jensen and has been published by Copenhagen Business School Press DK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.

This book analyzes stochastic dynamic systems across a broad spectrum in economics and finance. The major unifying theme is the coherent and rigorous treatment of uncertainty and its implications for describing stochastic processes by the stochastic differential equations of the fundamental models in various fields. Pertinent subjects are interrelated, juxtaposed, and examined for consistency in theoretical and empirical contexts. The volume consists of three parts: Developments in Stochastic Dynamics; Stochastic Dynamics in Basic Economic Growth Models; and Intertemporal Optimization in Consumption, Finance, and Growth. Key topics include: fractional Brownian motion in finance; moment evolution of Gaussian and geometric Wiener diffusions; stochastic kinematics and stochastic mechanics; stochastic growth in continuous time; time delays and Hopf bifurcation; consumption and investment strategies; differential systems in finance and life insurance; uncertainty of technological innovations; investment and employment cycles; stochastic control theory; and risk aversion. The works collected in this book serves to bridge the "old" deterministic dynamics and the "new" stochastic dynamics. The collection is important for scholars and advanced graduate students of economics, statistics, and applied mathematics.

Stochastic Dynamic Macroeconomics

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Author : Gang Gong
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
Release Date : 2006-01-19

Stochastic Dynamic Macroeconomics written by Gang Gong and has been published by Oxford University Press on Demand this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-01-19 with Business & Economics categories.

This is a book on stochastic dynamic macroeconomics from a Keynesian perspective. It shows that including Keynesian features in intertemporal models considerably contributes to resolve major puzzles arising in the context of the Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model. It also demonstrates that including microeconomic intertemporal behavior of economic agents in macroeconomics is not inconsistent with Keynesian economics.

Nonlinearities In Economics

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Author : Giuseppe Orlando
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-08-31

Nonlinearities In Economics written by Giuseppe Orlando and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-08-31 with Business & Economics categories.

This interdisciplinary book argues that the economy has an underlying non-linear structure and that business cycles are endogenous, which allows a greater explanatory power with respect to the traditional assumption that dynamics are stochastic and shocks are exogenous. The first part of this work is formal-methodological and provides the mathematical background needed for the remainder, while the second part presents the view that signal processing involves construction and deconstruction of information and that the efficacy of this process can be measured. The third part focuses on economics and provides the related background and literature on economic dynamics and the fourth part is devoted to new perspectives in understanding nonlinearities in economic dynamics: growth and cycles. By pursuing this approach, the book seeks to (1) determine whether, and if so where, common features exist, (2) discover some hidden features of economic dynamics, and (3) highlight specific indicators of structural changes in time series. Accordingly, it is a must read for everyone interested in a better understanding of economic dynamics, business cycles, econometrics and complex systems, as well as non-linear dynamics and chaos theory.

Causal And Stochastic Elements In Business Cycles

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Author : Arvid Aulin
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Causal And Stochastic Elements In Business Cycles written by Arvid Aulin and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

A critical examination of The prevailing orthodoxy according to which all macroeconomic theory should be reducible to microeconomics. The book provides a mathematical extension of the Lucas theory to allow for the effects of creation of knowledge upon economic development so as to improve the prediction of business cycle data.

Business Cycles

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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2020-10-06

Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Common Stochastic Trends Common Cycles And Asymmetry In Economic Fluctuations

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Author : Chang-Jin Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000

Common Stochastic Trends Common Cycles And Asymmetry In Economic Fluctuations written by Chang-Jin Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Business cycles categories.

"This paper investigates the nature of business cycle asymmetry using a dynamic factor model of output, investment, and consumption. We first identify a common stochastic trend and a common transitory component by embedding the permanent income hypothesis within a simple growth model. We then investigate two types of asymmetry commonly identified in U.S. business cycle dynamics: (1) Infrequent negative permanent shocks, modeled as shifts in the growth rate of the common stochastic trend and (2) infrequent negative transitory shocks, modeled as "plucking" deviations from the common stochastic trend. Tests of marginal significance suggest both types of asymmetry were present in post-war recessions, although the shifts in trend are less severe than the received literature suggests."

The Dynamics Of Business Cycles

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Author : Michael Reiter
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

The Dynamics Of Business Cycles written by Michael Reiter and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This study is a revised version of my doctoral dissertation at the Economics Department of the University of Munich. I want to take the opportunity to express my gratitude to some people who have helped me in my work. My greatest thanks go to the supervisor of this dissertation, Professor Claude Billinger. Bis ideas have formed the basis of my work. Be permanently sup ported it with a host of ideas, criticism and encouragement. Furthermore, he provided a stimulating research environment at SEMECON. This study would not have been possible in this form without the help of my present and former colleagues at SEMECON. I am indebted to Rudolf Kohne-Volland, Monika Sebold-Bender and Ulrich Woitek for providing soft ware and guidance for the data analysis. Discussions with them and with Thilo Weser have helped me to take many hurdles, particularly in the early stages of the project. My sincere thanks go to them all. I had the opportunity to present a former version of my growth model at a workshop of Professor Klaus Zimmermann. I want to thank all the parti cipants for their helpful comments. I also acknowledge critical and constructive comments from an anonymous referee. Table of Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I. Methodology 1. Importance of Stylized Facts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.1 Limitations of statistical testing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.2 Evaluating economic models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 11 . . . . . . 2. Further Methodological Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 13 . . . . . .

Business Cycles And Financial Crises

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Author : A. W. Mullineux
language : en
Publisher: Bookboon
Release Date : 1990

Business Cycles And Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and has been published by Bookboon this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business cycles categories.

Beautiful Cycles A Theory And A Model Implying A Curious Role For Interest

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Author : Mr. Marco Gross
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-03-05

Beautiful Cycles A Theory And A Model Implying A Curious Role For Interest written by Mr. Marco Gross and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-05 with Business & Economics categories.

Where do economic cycles come from? This paper contemplates an utmost minimalistic model and underlying theory that rest on two assumptions for letting them emerge endogenously: (1) the presence of interest-bearing debt; and (2) a degree of downward nominal wage rigidity. Despite its parsimony, the model generates well-behaved, self-evolving limit cycles and replicates six essential empirical facts: (1) booms are long- while recessions short-lived; (2) leverage is procyclical; (3) firm profit and wage shares in GDP are counter- and procyclical, respectively; (4) Phillips curves are downward-sloping and convex, and Okun’s law relation is replicated; (5) default cascades arise endogenously at the turning points to recessions; (6) lending spreads are countercyclical. One can refer to the model as being of a Dynamic Stochastic General Disequilibrium (DSGD) kind.