Streetlights And Shadows
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Streetlights And Shadows
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Author : Gary A. Klein
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2011-09-30
Streetlights And Shadows written by Gary A. Klein and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-30 with Business & Economics categories.
An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble—and why experience can’t be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines—gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete—but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples—ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O’Brian’s Master and Commander novels—to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn’t. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything. “I know of no one who combines theory and observation—intellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real world—so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein.” —Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink
Sources Of Power
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Author : Gary A. Klein
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1999-02-18
Sources Of Power written by Gary A. Klein and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-02-18 with Business & Economics categories.
Anyone who watches the television news has seen images of firefighters rescuing people from burning buildings and paramedics treating bombing victims. How do these individuals make the split-second decisions that save lives? Most studies of decision making, based on artificial tasks assigned in laboratory settings, view people as biased and unskilled. Gary Klein is one of the developers of the naturalistic decision making approach, which views people as inherently skilled and experienced. It documents human strengths and capabilities that so far have been downplayed or ignored. Since 1985, Klein has conducted fieldwork to find out how people tackle challenges in difficult, nonroutine situations. Sources of Power is based on observations of humans acting under such real-life constraints as time pressure, high stakes, personal responsibility, and shifting conditions. The professionals studied include firefighters, critical care nurses, pilots, nuclear power plant operators, battle planners, and chess masters. Each chapter builds on key incidents and examples to make the description of the methodology and phenomena more vivid. In addition to providing information that can be used by professionals in management, psychology, engineering, and other fields, the book presents an overview of the research approach of naturalistic decision making and expands our knowledge of the strengths people bring to difficult tasks.
Seeing What Others Don T
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Author : Gary Klein
language : en
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Release Date : 2013-06-25
Seeing What Others Don T written by Gary Klein and has been published by PublicAffairs this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Insights -- like Darwin's understanding of the way evolution actually works, and Watson and Crick's breakthrough discoveries about the structure of DNA -- can change the world. We also need insights into the everyday things that frustrate and confuse us so that we can more effectively solve problems and get things done. Yet we know very little about when, why, or how insights are formed -- or what blocks them. In Seeing What Others Don't, renowned cognitive psychologist Gary Klein unravels the mystery. Klein is a keen observer of people in their natural settings -- scientists, businesspeople, firefighters, police officers, soldiers, family members, friends, himself -- and uses a marvelous variety of stories to illuminate his research into what insights are and how they happen. What, for example, enabled Harry Markopolos to put the finger on Bernie Madoff? How did Dr. Michael Gottlieb make the connections between different patients that allowed him to publish the first announcement of the AIDS epidemic? What did Admiral Yamamoto see (and what did the Americans miss) in a 1940 British attack on the Italian fleet that enabled him to develop the strategy of attack at Pearl Harbor? How did a "smokejumper" see that setting another fire would save his life, while those who ignored his insight perished? How did Martin Chalfie come up with a million-dollar idea (and a Nobel Prize) for a natural flashlight that enabled researchers to look inside living organisms to watch biological processes in action? Klein also dissects impediments to insight, such as when organizations claim to value employee creativity and to encourage breakthroughs but in reality block disruptive ideas and prioritize avoidance of mistakes. Or when information technology systems are "dumb by design" and block potential discoveries. Both scientifically sophisticated and fun to read, Seeing What Others Don't shows that insight is not just a "eureka!" moment but a whole new way of understanding.
The Investor S Paradox
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Author : Brian Portnoy
language : en
Publisher: Macmillan + ORM
Release Date : 2014-01-07
The Investor S Paradox written by Brian Portnoy and has been published by Macmillan + ORM this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-07 with Business & Economics categories.
“Portnoy has produced the first great text on picking fund managers . . . one of the best written investment books you’ll ever find.” —Don Phillips, Morningstar A paradox we all face is the natural desire for more choice in our lives, yet the more we have, the less satisfied we become—whether we’re at the grocery store, choosing doctors, or flipping through hundreds of TV channels. So, too, with investing, where there are literally tens of thousands of funds from which to choose. Hence “the investor’s paradox”: We crave abundant investment choices to conquer volatile markets, yet with greater flexibility, the more overwhelmed and less empowered we become. Leveraging the fresh insights of behavioral economics, Brian Portnoy demystifies the opaque world of elite hedge funds, addresses the limits of mass market mutual funds, and discards the false dichotomy between “traditional” and “alternative” investments. He also explores why hedge funds have recently become such a controversial and disruptive force. Turns out it’s not the splashy headlines—spectacular trades, newly minted billionaires, aggressive tactics—but something much more fundamental. The stratospheric rise to prominence and availability of alternative strategies represents a further explosion in the size and complexity of the choice set in a market already saturated with products. It constitutes something we all both crave and detest. The Investor’s Paradox lights a path toward simplicity in a world of dangerous markets and overwhelming choice. Written in accessible, jargon-free language, with a healthy skepticism of today’s money management industry, it offers not only practical tools for investment success but also a message of empowerment for investors drowning in possibility.
Shadows On My Wall
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Author : Timothy Young
language : en
Publisher: Schiffer + ORM
Release Date : 2012-07-31
Shadows On My Wall written by Timothy Young and has been published by Schiffer + ORM this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-31 with Juvenile Fiction categories.
Kevin sees scary shadows on his wall. How will he handle it? The street lights make shadows on Kevin’s wall! In those shadows, he sees monsters, dragons, and all sorts of frightening creatures. Does he let them scare him or does he find imaginative ways of dealing with these creepy shadows? Find out in this frightfully fun book. Through 15 creative illustrations of silhouetted shadow characters, contrasting with night-time colors, Kevin’s room and his imagination come to life. Through Kevin’s experience, children will learn how to deal with their own shadowy fears. Illustrations also show how you can create your own shadow figures.
Judgment
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Author : Noel M. Tichy
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2007-11-08
Judgment written by Noel M. Tichy and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-11-08 with Business & Economics categories.
“With good judgment, little else matters. Without it, nothing else matters.” Whether we’re talking about United States presidents, CEOs, Major League coaches, or wartime generals, leaders are remembered for their best and worst judgment calls. In the face of ambiguity, uncertainty, and conflicting demands, the quality of a leader’s judgment determines the fate of the entire organization. That’s why judgment is the essence of leadership. Yet despite its importance, judgment has always been a fairly murky concept. The leadership literature has been conspicuously quiet on what, exactly, defines it. Does judgment differ from common sense or gut instinct? Is it a product of luck? Of smarts? Or is there a process for making consistently good calls? Noel Tichy and Warren Bennis have each spent decades studying and teaching leadership and advising top CEOs such as Jack Welch and Howard Schultz. Now, in their first collaboration, they offer a powerful framework for making tough calls when the stakes are high and the right path is far from obvious. They show how to recognize the critical moment before a judgment call, when swift and decisive action is essential, and also how to execute a decision after the call. Tichy and Bennis bring their three-dimensional model to life with interviews with world-class leaders who have thrived or suffered because of their judgment calls. These stories include: • Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, whose judgment to grow through research and development transformed GE into the world’s premier technology growth company. • Joel Klein, chancellor of the New York City Department of Education, who made tough calls about teachers, students, and parents while turning around a troubled school system. • Jim McNerney, CEO of Boeing, whose strategic judgment helped him reinvigorate his company and restore a culture of trust and respect. • The late general Wayne Downing, who found an unexpected opportunity in the midst of crisis when he led the Special Operations raid to capture Manuel Noriega. • A. G. Lafley, CEO of Procter & Gamble, who bet $57 billion to purchase Gillette and reinvent his company. • Brad Anderson, CEO of Best Buy, who made the call to commit totally to a customer-centric strategy and led his people to execute it. Whether you’re running a small department or a global corporation, Judgment will give you a framework for evaluating any situation, making the call, and correcting if necessary during the execution phase. It will show you how to handle the overlapping domains of people, strategy, and crisis management. And it will help you teach your entire team to make the right call more often. No organization can afford to neglect this crucial discipline—and no previous book has ever brought it into such clear focus.
Judgment Calls
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Author : Thomas H. Davenport
language : en
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
Release Date : 2012-04-03
Judgment Calls written by Thomas H. Davenport and has been published by Harvard Business Review Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Your guide to making better decisions Despite the dizzying amount of data at our disposal today—and an increasing reliance on analytics to make the majority of our decisions—many of our most critical choices still come down to human judgment. This fact is fundamental to organizations whose leaders must often make crucial decisions: to do this they need the best available insights. In Judgment Calls, authors Tom Davenport and Brook Manville share twelve stories of organizations that have successfully tapped their data assets, diverse perspectives, and deep knowledge to build an organizational decision-making capability—a competence they say can make the difference between success and failure. This book introduces a model that taps the collective judgment of an organization so that the right decisions are made, and the entire organization profits. Through the stories in Judgment Calls, the authors—both of them seasoned management thinkers and advisers—make the case for the wisdom of organizations and suggest ways to use it to best advantage. Each chapter tells a unique story of one dilemma and its ultimate resolution, bringing into high relief one key to the power of collective judgment. Individually, these stories inspire and instruct; together, they form a model for building an organizational capacity for broadly based, knowledge-intensive decision making. You’ve read The Wisdom of Crowds and Competing on Analytics. Now read Judgment Calls. You, and your organization, will make better decisions.
Summer Light
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Author : Roxana Robinson
language : en
Publisher: UPNE
Release Date : 2013-03-12
Summer Light written by Roxana Robinson and has been published by UPNE this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-12 with Literary Criticism categories.
A Maine vacation forces a young woman to challenge her own understanding of the world in a sharply insightful first novel
Working Minds
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Author : Beth Crandall
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2006-07-07
Working Minds written by Beth Crandall and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07-07 with Psychology categories.
How to collect data about cognitive processes and events, how to analyze CTA findings, and how to communicate them effectively: a handbook for managers, trainers, systems analysts, market researchers, health professionals, and others. Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) helps researchers understand how cognitive skills and strategies make it possible for people to act effectively and get things done. CTA can yield information people need—employers faced with personnel issues, market researchers who want to understand the thought processes of consumers, trainers and others who design instructional systems, health care professionals who want to apply lessons learned from errors and accidents, systems analysts developing user specifications, and many other professionals. CTA can show what makes the workplace work—and what keeps it from working as well as it might. Working Minds is a true handbook, offering a set of tools for doing CTA: methods for collecting data about cognitive processes and events, analyzing them, and communicating them effectively. It covers both the "why" and the "how" of CTA methods, providing examples, guidance, and stories from the authors' own experiences as CTA practitioners. Because effective use of CTA depends on some conceptual grounding in cognitive theory and research—on knowing what a cognitive perspective can offer—the book also offers an overview of current research on cognition. The book provides detailed guidance for planning and carrying out CTA, with chapters on capturing knowledge and capturing the way people reason. It discusses studying cognition in real-world settings and the challenges of rapidly changing technology. And it describes key issues in applying CTA findings in a variety of fields. Working Minds makes the methodology of CTA accessible and the skills involved attainable.