Structural Balance Targeting And Output Gap Uncertainty
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Structural Balance Targeting And Output Gap Uncertainty
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Author : Eugen Tereanu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-06-13
Structural Balance Targeting And Output Gap Uncertainty written by Eugen Tereanu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.
Structural Balance Targeting And Output Gap Uncertainty
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Author : Eugen Tereanu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-06-13
Structural Balance Targeting And Output Gap Uncertainty written by Eugen Tereanu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.
A Balancing Act
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Author : Mr.Antonio David
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-16
A Balancing Act written by Mr.Antonio David and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Paraguay faces a trade-off between building fiscal credibility and amending the existing fiscal rule to accommodate infrastructure investment and provide space for countercyclical policies. In this paper, we discuss several alternative fiscal rules for Paraguay and present simulations of debt trajectories in each case, assuming a baseline and three deterministic shock scenarios. We provide a supplementary Excel file to replicate debt simulations under different fiscal rules. The results suggest that potential modifications to make the fiscal rules more flexible in Paraguay should be accompanied by a number of safeguards that enhance credibility of the fiscal anchor and preserve sustainability.
Imf Research Bulletin September 2014
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-10-11
Imf Research Bulletin September 2014 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin opens with a letter from the new editor, Rabah Arezki. The Research Summaries are a "Primer on 'Global Liquidity'" (Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Lev Ratnovski); and "Trade Integration adn Business Cycle Synchronization" (Kevin Cheng, Romain Duval, and Dulani Senevirante). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on the Global Housing Markets" (Hites Ahir, Heedon Kang, and Prakash Loungani). September 2014 issue of the Bulletin also includes updates on IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as special announcements on new staff publications and the Fifteenth Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference. Also included is information on the latest issue of “IMF Economic Review” with a link to an article by Paul Krugman.
Finland
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-08-31
Finland written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-31 with Business & Economics categories.
This Selected Issues and Analytical Note on Finland discusses the potential spillovers to Finland from various shocks associated with cross-country interlinkages. The note provides an overview of the trade and financial linkages, assesses the impact of global fiscal consolidation on Finland via trade links, quantifies dynamic contributions from external sources to growth, and uses these contributions to forecast the potential loss to Finnish GDP from a growth slowdown in other European countries; and analyzes the potential impact from the banking sector or sovereign stress.
Romania
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-10-23
Romania written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper on Romania was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 13, 2012. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Romania or the Executive Board of the IMF.
Aggregate Demand And Employment
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Author : Brian K. MacLean
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2020-03-28
Aggregate Demand And Employment written by Brian K. MacLean and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-28 with Business & Economics categories.
With an emphasis on developments during and after the Great Recession, and paying due attention to the impacts of austerity policies, the chapters assembled for this book explain that high growth of aggregate demand is as essential as ever for achieving full employment and rising living standards. Written by distinguished Keynesian and Post-Keynesian economists from diverse national backgrounds, the book tackles critical theoretical and empirical issues to illuminate the economic experiences both of large geographic regions such as Europe, Latin America, and Africa, as well as specific national economies including the USA, Japan, India, and Canada.
Economic Policy Theory And Practice
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Author : Agnes Benassy-Quere
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2018-11-07
Economic Policy Theory And Practice written by Agnes Benassy-Quere and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic Policy provides a unique combination of facts-based analysis, state-of-the art economic theory, and insights from first-hand policy experience at the national and international levels to shed light on current domestic and international policy challenges. It is ideally suited for students, practitioners, and scholars seeking understanding both of the pragmatic constraints of real-world policy making and the analytical tools that enhance inquiry and inform debates. The authors draw on their experiences as academics and as policy makers in European and international institutions to offer a deep dive into the rationale, design, and implementation of economic policy across a range of policy domains: fiscal policy, monetary policy, international finance, financial stability, taxes, long-term growth and inequality. Highlighting the ways experience, theories, and institutions interact, each chapter starts with historical examples of dilemmas and shows how theoretical approaches can help policy makers understand what is at stake and identify solutions. The authors highlight the differences between the positive approach to economic policy (how do policies impact the economy), the normative approach (what should be policymakers' objectives and against which criteria should their action be judged), and the political-economy constraints (what are the limits and obstacles to public intervention). They rely on the most recent academic research, providing technical boxes while explaining the mechanisms in plain English in the text, with appropriate illustrations. This new edition is informed by such important recent developments as the Great Recession, the strains on the European Union and the Euro, the challenges of public and private debt, the successes and setbacks to emerging markets, changes to labor markets along with the increased attention to inequality, the debates on secular stagnation and its implications for conventional and unconventional monetary policy, the re-regulation of the financial sector, the debt overhang in both the public and the private sector.
Paraguay
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-05-11
Paraguay written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper focuses on the reform options for Paraguay’s fiscal responsibilities law as well as credit growth and banking system vulnerabilities. During the first year of Paraguay’s fiscal responsibility law, implementation has proven challenging, and a debate has emerged over whether its current design is excessively rigid. There are also important reputational costs to amending the framework. Paraguay has experienced rapid credit growth over the past decade. Reflecting these considerations, this chapter analyzes banks’ health and potential risks in Paraguay. Paraguay’s credit markets, as well as the rest of its financial system, are dominated by commercial banks.
A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity For The Euro Area
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Author : Mr.Nathaniel G Arnold
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-03-26
A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity For The Euro Area written by Mr.Nathaniel G Arnold and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-26 with Business & Economics categories.
This note outlines a concrete proposal for a euro area CFC that could help smooth both country-specific and common shocks. Specifically, it proposes a macroeconomic stabilization fund financed by annual contributions from countries used to build up assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a borrowing capacity in case large or persistent shocks exhaust the fund’s assets. The note also discusses several features aimed at avoiding permanent transfers between countries and making the CFC function as automatically as possible—to limit the scope for disputes over its operation—both of which are important points to make it politically acceptable.