Sudden Stops And Currency Drops

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Sudden Stops And Currency Drops

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Author : Luis Catão
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-05

Sudden Stops And Currency Drops written by Luis Catão and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-05 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper shows that recent manifestations of sudden stops (SSs) in international capital flows have striking parallels in the early financial globalization era preceding World War I. All main capital-importing countries then faced episodic capital flow reversals averaging some 5 percent of GDP and with a median duration of four years. Most SSs also displayed striking crosscountry synchronization, being immediately preceded by rising world interest rates. Both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes were hit, with no significant differences between them. Yet, not all SSs resulted in currency drops: while some countries experienced currency collapses, others managed to preserve exchange rate stability. These different responses are related to domestic "frictions" that heightened the procyclicality of absorption and hindered precautionary reserve accumulation in some countries relative to others.

Imf Working Papers

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Author : Luis Catão
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006

Imf Working Papers written by Luis Catão and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Electronic books categories.

Sudden Stops And Output Drops

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Author : V. V. Chari
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005

Sudden Stops And Output Drops written by V. V. Chari and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Capital movements categories.

"In recent financial crises and in recent theoretical studies of them, abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, have been linked with large drops in output.Do sudden stops cause output drops? No, according to a standard equilibrium model in which sudden stops are generated by an abrupt tightening of a country's collateral constraint on foreign borrowing.In this model, in fact, sudden stops lead to output increases, not decreases.An examination of the quantitative effects of a well-known sudden stop, in Mexico in the mid-1990s, confirms that a drop in output accompanying a sudden stop cannot be accounted for by the sudden stop alone.To generate an output drop during a financial crisis, as other studies have done, the model must include other economic frictions which have negative effects on output large enough to overwhelm the positive effect of the sudden stop"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site.

Sudden Stops Sectoral Reallocations And The Real Exchange Rate

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Author : Timothy Jerome Kehoe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008

Sudden Stops Sectoral Reallocations And The Real Exchange Rate written by Timothy Jerome Kehoe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Balance of trade categories.

A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994-95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.

Sudden Stops And The Mexican Wave

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Author : Michael M. Hutchinson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002

Sudden Stops And The Mexican Wave written by Michael M. Hutchinson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Capital movements categories.

On The Empirics Of Sudden Stops

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Author : Guillermo A. Calvo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004

On The Empirics Of Sudden Stops written by Guillermo A. Calvo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Balance of payments categories.

"Using a sample of 32 developed and developing countries we analyze the empirical characteristics of sudden stops in capital flows and the relevance of balance sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. We find that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations coming hand in hand with Sudden Stops are basically an emerging market (EM) phenomenon. Sudden Stops seem to come in bunches, grouping together countries that are different in many respects. However, countries are similar in that they remain vulnerable to large RER fluctuations be it because they could be forced to large adjustments in the absorption of tradable goods, and/or because the size of dollar liabilities in the banking system (i.e., domestic liability dollarization, or DLD) is high. Openness, understood as a large supply of tradable goods that reduces leverage over the current account deficit, coupled with DLD, are key determinants of the probability of Sudden Stops. The relationship between Openness and DLD in the determination of the probability of Sudden Stops is highly non-linear, implying that the interaction of high current account leverage and high dollarization may be a dangerous cocktail"--NBER website

Sudden Stops And The Mexican Wave

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Author : Michael Hutchison
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002

Sudden Stops And The Mexican Wave written by Michael Hutchison and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Capital movements categories.

Sudden Stops Sectoral Reallocations And The Real Exchange Rate

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Author : Timothy J. Kehoe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010

Sudden Stops Sectoral Reallocations And The Real Exchange Rate written by Timothy J. Kehoe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.

A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994-95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.

Currency Crises And Sudden Stops

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Author : Munif Al Munyif
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016

Currency Crises And Sudden Stops written by Munif Al Munyif and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.

Output Drops And The Shocks That Matter

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Author : Torbjörn Becker
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-07

Output Drops And The Shocks That Matter written by Torbjörn Becker and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07 with Business & Economics categories.

Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development. We then turn to a more in-depth analysis of the post-1970 era, examining output drops in a large panel of countries, and systematically relating them to a variety of shocks. We compute the expected cost of each type of shock as a function of the shock's frequency, the likelihood that the shock will be associated with a drop in output, and the size of the output drop. The largest costs are associated with external financial shocks (notably, sudden stops in financial flows) for emerging markets, and with real external shocks (in particular, terms-of-trade shocks) for developing countries.