Supply Shock

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Assessing The Fragility Of Global Trade

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Author : Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-03-03

Assessing The Fragility Of Global Trade written by Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.

Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.

Supply Shocks Wage Stickiness And Accommodation

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Author : Stanley Fischer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1983

Supply Shocks Wage Stickiness And Accommodation written by Stanley Fischer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with Demand (Economic theory) categories.

The main issue discussed in the supply shock literature that followed the oil and food price shocks of the seventies was whether to accommodate. The supply shock reduces the equilibrium level of output, and monetary policy can not affect that. But in the seventies supply shocks were also followed by recessions. The question is whether monetary policy can and should be used to prevent such recessions. The paper analyzes the conditions underwhich a suppiy shock will result in recession, and the potential for monetary policy to offset the fall in output. The basic result is that a pure supply shock need not resultin a recession if the money stock is held constant.Aggregate demand effects associated with the supply shock--including the effectsof monetary policy attempts to fight the inflation caused by the supply shock--may cause a recession, as also may real wage resistance by workers. The choice of policy response to the supply shock then turns on the same basic issues as counter-cyclical policy in general, particularly the relative costs of inflation and unemployment.

Supply Shock

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Author : Brian Czech
language : en
Publisher: New Society Publishers
Release Date : 2013-04-26

Supply Shock written by Brian Czech and has been published by New Society Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-26 with Business & Economics categories.

Politicians, economists, and Wall Street would have us believe that limitless economic expansion is the Holy Grail, and that there is no conflict between growing the economy and protecting the environment. Supply Shock debunks these widely accepted myths and demonstrates that we are in fact navigating the end of the era of economic growth, and that the only sustainable alternative is the development of a steady state economy. Starting with a refreshingly accessible, comprehensive critique of economic growth, the author engages readers in an enormous topic that affects everyone in every country. Publisher's Weekly favorably compared Czech to Carl Sagan for popularizing their difficult subjects; Supply Shock shows why. Czech presents a compelling alternative to growth based on keen scientific, economic, and political insights including: The "trophic theory of money" The overlooked source of technological progress that prevents us from reconciling growth and environmental protection Bold yet practical policies for establishing a steady state economy. Supply Shock leaves no doubt that the biggest idea of the 20th century – economic growth – has become the biggest problem of the 21st. Required reading for anyone concerned about the world our children and grandchildren will inherit, this landmark work lays a solid foundation for a new economic model, perhaps in time for preventing global catastrophes; certainly in time for lessening the damages.

Supply Shock

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Author : Brian Czech
language : en
Publisher: New Society Publishers
Release Date : 2013-05-28

THE STEADY STATE REVOLUTION -- NAVIGATING THE END OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Supply Shock "clearly describes the heart of what ails us--a zombie-like addiction to economic growth everywhere at all costs. Brian Czech brilliantly dissects the economic theories, models, and mindsets that are diminishing the human prospect while calling it "progress." ... King Midas would have understood the point, as we will someday." -- David W. Orr, Paul Sears Distinguished Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics, and Senior Adviser to the President, Oberlin College .".. it's evident that Czech has mastered the art of melding science, economics, policy and politics in one readable piece. Supply Shock belongs in the classroom, boardroom, town halls and policy circles." -- Herman Daly, from the foreword Politicians, economists, and Wall Street would have us believe that limitless expansion is the Holy Grail, and that there is no conflict between growing the economy and protecting the environment. "Supply Shock" debunks this widely accepted myth, leaving no doubt that the biggest idea of the 20th century - economic growth - has now become the biggest problem of the 21st. Starting with a refreshingly accessible, comprehensive critique of "the dismal science," author Brian Czech develops a compelling argument for a steady state economy. Whereas many works of economic thought can be dry and boring, Supply Shock succeeds at engaging readers while conveying keen scientific, economic and political insights including: The "trophic theory of money" The overlooked source of technological progress that prevents us from reconciling growth and environmental protection Bold yet practical policy objectives designed to ease the transition to life after growth. "Required reading for anyone concerned about the world our children and grandchildren will inherit, this landmark work lays a solid foundation for a new economic model, perhaps in time for preventing global catastrophes; certainly in time to mitigate the damage. Czech's vision of "steady statesmanship" is impressive and convincing, and this book easily qualifies as one of the key manuals for those who care about the world and its inhabitants." -- Lynn Gree nwalt, former director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service "An old economic world is dying, and a new economic world is being born. Brian Czech is one of the visionaries..." -- Governor Rich ard D. Lamm Brian Czech is the founder of Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE), the leading organization promoting the transition from unsustainable growth to a new economic paradigm.

The Differential Effects Of Oil Demand And Supply Shocks On The Global Economy

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Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-10-23

The Differential Effects Of Oil Demand And Supply Shocks On The Global Economy written by Mr.Paul Cashin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

Oil Shocks And External Balances

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2007-05-01

Oil Shocks And External Balances written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global perspective. In addition to the U.S., the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of country groups including oil exporters and middle-income oil-importing economies. We find that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the nonoil trade balance, and differs systematically between the U.S. and other oil importing countries. Using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the U.S., but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and the U.S., but may amplify it for other oil importers.

On The Sources And Consequences Of Oil Price Shocks

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Author : Deren Unalmis
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-11-08

On The Sources And Consequences Of Oil Price Shocks written by Deren Unalmis and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-08 with Business & Economics categories.

Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.

Supply Bottlenecks Where Why How Much And What Next

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Author : Oya Celasun
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-02-17

Supply Bottlenecks Where Why How Much And What Next written by Oya Celasun and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-17 with Business & Economics categories.

Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs—such as autos—are harder hit. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched.

Assessing The Impact Of Supply Disruptions On The Global Pandemic Recovery

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Author : Harri Kemp
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-02-24

Assessing The Impact Of Supply Disruptions On The Global Pandemic Recovery written by Harri Kemp and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-24 with Business & Economics categories.

We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify supply and demand shocks in manufacturing, based on the co-movement of surveys on new orders and suppliers’ delivery times. The effects of these shocks on industrial production and GDP are recovered through a combination of local projection methods and the input-output framework in Acemoglu et al. (2016). In the second approach, we use the IMF’s G20 model to gauge the importance of supply shocks in jointly driving activity and inflation surprises. We find that supply disruptions subtracted between 0.5 and 1.2 percent from global value added during the global recovery in 2021, while also adding about 1 percent to global core inflation that same year.

Supply Shock

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Author : Duff Young
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007

Supply Shock written by Duff Young and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.

Supply Shock

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