Surprise And Uncertainty Indexes
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Surprise And Uncertainty Indexes
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Author : Chiara Scotti
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Surprise And Uncertainty Indexes written by Chiara Scotti and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
I construct two daily, real-time, real activity indexes for the United States, Euro area, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan: (i) a surprise index that summarizes recent economic data surprises and measures optimism/pessimism about the state of the economy, and (ii) an uncertainty index that measures uncertainty related to the state of the economy. The surprise index preserves the properties of the underlying series in affecting asset prices, with the advantage of being a parsimonious summary measure of real-activity surprises. For the United States, the real-activity uncertainty index is compared to other proxies commonly used to measure uncertainty to show that when uncertainty is strictly related to real activity, it has a potentially milder impact on economic activity than when it also relates to the financial sector.
Alternative Economic Indicators
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Author : C. James Hueng
language : en
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
Release Date : 2020-09-08
Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and has been published by W.E. Upjohn Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
The World Uncertainty Index
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Author : Hites Ahir
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The World Uncertainty Index written by Hites Ahir and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On Emerging Financial Markets
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Author : Jonathan Batten
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2011-03-02
The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On Emerging Financial Markets written by Jonathan Batten and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-02 with Business & Economics categories.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 has highlighted the resilience of the financial markets and economies from the developing world. This title investigates and assesses the impact and response to the crisis from an emerging markets perspective including asset pricing, contagion, financial intermediation, market structure and regulation.
The Optimal Economic Uncertainty Index
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Author : Pei-Tha Gan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
The Optimal Economic Uncertainty Index written by Pei-Tha Gan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
A noteworthy characteristic of empirical studies on the economic uncertainty index is that very few published papers depend on normative analysis. Therefore, normative analysis cannot be used to refute the precision of the economic uncertainty index; the lack of precision is simply the outcome of a misspecification of a commonly used model and a complex data collection process. To overcome this shortcoming, this paper uses the optimal form of the economic uncertainty index and determines its empirical validity based on a sample of 7 countries, including 3 developed and 4 developing countries. Using a grid search optimization procedure, the findings provide some policy implications; the optimal economic uncertainty index can characterize the uncertainty level of macroeconomic conditions and serve as a guiding policy tool for improving uncertainty levels in macroeconomic conditions. The estimated response function of the optimal economic uncertainty index suggests that the exchange rate, inflation, interest rate and output are useful indicators for central banks' decision-making and that the optimal index supports the prediction of economic uncertainty.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
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Author : Richard Brandt
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index written by Richard Brandt and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
The current coronavirus pandemic is a recent example of how an unpredictable event can cause uncertainty and affect people, markets and economies worldwide. Economic indicators like the well-known and frequently cited Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, developed by the three economists Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, try to capture perceptions of uncertainty and use them to generate predictions for the economic future. The index is based on a search term that is employed to select relevant elements from a population of articles. However, previous research contributions criticize the composition of the search term for being too broad and restricted to specific policy areas, thereby missing detections of new or unforeseen sources of economic uncertainty. This research note aims to modify the economists' search term in three different ways. The author introduces the term and concept of "risk", which is not considered in the original search term, adds further policy areas that can cause economic uncertainty, and extends the term "uncertainty" by including related terms and synonyms. In order to evaluate the success of the optimized search terms in selecting relevant articles from a population of articles, all search terms are applied to two randomly drawn samples, derived from an original corpus of 2,723,049 articles and a pre-filtered corpus of 514,297 articles from the German daily newspapers Handelsblatt and Süddeutsche Zeitung. The investigation period ranges from January 1994 to March 2020. For comparison, both samples are also filtered using Baker, Bloom and Davis's original search term. The different selection results are evaluated with the help of the parameters recall and precision. The results are preliminary, but encouraging. In both samples, only around every tenth relevant article is selected when Baker, Bloom and Davis's search term is applied. By modifying the original search term, the recall could be increased considerably with little disadvantages in terms of precision. The research process shows that economic uncertainties can be related to other concepts and policy areas that are not captured by the economists' original search term.
International Transmission Of Us Monetary Policy Surprises
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Author : Kyunghun Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
International Transmission Of Us Monetary Policy Surprises written by Kyunghun Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Investment Under Uncertainty
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Author : Robert K. Dixit
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2012-07-14
Investment Under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-14 with Business & Economics categories.
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Policy Uncertainty In Japan
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Author : Ms.Elif C Arbatli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-05-30
Policy Uncertainty In Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-30 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Surprise Uncertainty And Mental Structures
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Author : Jerome Kagan
language : en
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Release Date : 2002-04-15
Surprise Uncertainty And Mental Structures written by Jerome Kagan and has been published by Harvard University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-04-15 with Psychology categories.
In the distinctive manner that has made him one of the most influential forces in developmental psychology, Kagan challenges scientific commonplaces about mental processes, pointing in particular to the significant but undervalued role of surprise and uncertainty in shaping behavior, emotion, and thought.
