The World Uncertainty Index
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The World Uncertainty Index
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Author : Hites Ahir
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The World Uncertainty Index written by Hites Ahir and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
The World Uncertainty Index
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
The World Uncertainty Index written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
World Uncertainty Financial Markets And U S Gdp Growth
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Author : Ujjal Chatterjee
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
World Uncertainty Financial Markets And U S Gdp Growth written by Ujjal Chatterjee and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
Uncertainties affect both the stock and bond markets. Thus, we evaluate whether world uncertainty indices perform better than stock and bond market indicators in forecasting U.S. GDP growth. We find that while U.S. World Uncertainty Index (frequency) forecasts U.S. GDP growth well, U.S. stock market excess returns perform better as a predictor. Excluding the COVID-19 period, U.S. corporate bond credit-spreads have the best performance to forecast U.S. GDP growth. Our results highlight that both world uncertainty indices and financial market variables are important indicators to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.
World Economic Outlook April 2019
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-04-09
World Economic Outlook April 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-09 with Business & Economics categories.
After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.
Policy Uncertainty In Japan
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Author : Ms.Elif C Arbatli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-05-30
Policy Uncertainty In Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-30 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
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Author : Richard Brandt
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index written by Richard Brandt and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
The current coronavirus pandemic is a recent example of how an unpredictable event can cause uncertainty and affect people, markets and economies worldwide. Economic indicators like the well-known and frequently cited Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, developed by the three economists Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, try to capture perceptions of uncertainty and use them to generate predictions for the economic future. The index is based on a search term that is employed to select relevant elements from a population of articles. However, previous research contributions criticize the composition of the search term for being too broad and restricted to specific policy areas, thereby missing detections of new or unforeseen sources of economic uncertainty. This research note aims to modify the economists' search term in three different ways. The author introduces the term and concept of "risk", which is not considered in the original search term, adds further policy areas that can cause economic uncertainty, and extends the term "uncertainty" by including related terms and synonyms. In order to evaluate the success of the optimized search terms in selecting relevant articles from a population of articles, all search terms are applied to two randomly drawn samples, derived from an original corpus of 2,723,049 articles and a pre-filtered corpus of 514,297 articles from the German daily newspapers Handelsblatt and Süddeutsche Zeitung. The investigation period ranges from January 1994 to March 2020. For comparison, both samples are also filtered using Baker, Bloom and Davis's original search term. The different selection results are evaluated with the help of the parameters recall and precision. The results are preliminary, but encouraging. In both samples, only around every tenth relevant article is selected when Baker, Bloom and Davis's search term is applied. By modifying the original search term, the recall could be increased considerably with little disadvantages in terms of precision. The research process shows that economic uncertainties can be related to other concepts and policy areas that are not captured by the economists' original search term.
Alternative Economic Indicators
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Author : C. James Hueng
language : en
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
Release Date : 2020-09-08
Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and has been published by W.E. Upjohn Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Causality Between Economic Policy Uncertainty Across Countries
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Author : Ahdi Noomen Ajmi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Causality Between Economic Policy Uncertainty Across Countries written by Ahdi Noomen Ajmi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
Following the 2007-2009 global recession, economic policy uncertainty and its effect on economic recovery has become an issue of interest in academic, media as well as policy-making circles (Baker et al., 2013). Given this backdrop, we investigate causality between economic policy uncertainty in some of the world's major economies using the economic policy uncertainty index developed by Baker et al. (2013). We implement both the traditional linear and the nonlinear variants of the Granger causality test. Based on the Diks and Panchenko (2005) non-linear Granger causality test, we find significant evidence of bidirectional causality between countries' economic policy uncertainty across the sample. The results are consistent with the fact that the global economy has become more integrated through trade, financial and confidence linkages. Also, our findings highlight that inference from traditional (linear) Granger causality test can be misleading in the presence of non-linearity in the data.
Economic Uncertainty And Fertility
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Author : Giray Gözgör
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Economic Uncertainty And Fertility written by Giray Gözgör and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of the effect of uncertainty on fertility. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We use a new measure of uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index, and focus on data from 126 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty shocks decrease the fertility rate. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls.
Global Uncertainty And The Global Economy
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Author : Wensheng Kang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Global Uncertainty And The Global Economy written by Wensheng Kang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
We constructed a new index of global uncertainty using the first principal component of the stock market volatility for the largest 15 economies. We evaluate the impact of global uncertainty on the global economy using the new global database from Global Economic Indicators (DGEI), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Global uncertainty shocks are less frequent than those observed in data on the U.S. economy. Global uncertainty shocks are associated with a sharp decline in global inflation, global growth and in the global interest rate (based on official/policy interest rates set by central banks). Our decomposition of global uncertainty shocks shows that global financial uncertainty shocks are more important than non-financial shocks. Over the period 1981 to 2014 global financial uncertainty forecasts 18.26% and 14.95% of the variation in global growth and global inflation respectively. The non-financial uncertainty shocks have insignificant effects on global growth. The model for global variables shows more protracted and substantial negative effects of uncertainty on growth and inflation than does a panel model estimating associations of local country-level variables. This outcome is reversed for the effect of uncertainty on official interest rate.
