Surprises In Probability
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Surprises In Probability
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Author : Henk Tijms
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-08-30
Surprises In Probability written by Henk Tijms and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-30 with Mathematics categories.
This book brings together a variety of probability applications through entertaining stories that will appeal to a broad readership. What are the best stopping rules for the dating problem? What can Bayes’ formula tell us about the chances of a Champions League draw for soccer teams being rigged? How could syndicates win millions of lottery dollars by buying a multitude of tickets at the right time? What’s the best way to manage your betting bankroll in a game in which you have an edge? How to use probability to debunk quacks and psychic mediums? How can the Monte Carlo simulation be used to solve a wide variety of probability problems? Are seven riffle shuffles of a standard deck of 52 playing cards enough for randomness? Provides seventeen engaging stories that illustrate ideas in probability. Written so as to be suitable for those with minimal mathematical background. Stories can be read independently. Can be used as examples and exercises for teaching introductory probability. These questions and many more are addressed in seventeen short chapters that can be read independently. The engaging stories are instructive and demonstrate valuable probabilistic ideas. They offer students material that they most likely don’t learn in class, and offer teachers a new way of teaching their subject.
Risk Surprises And Black Swans
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-08-13
Risk Surprises And Black Swans written by Terje Aven and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-08-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.
Probabilities
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Author : Peter Olofsson
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-02-02
Probabilities written by Peter Olofsson and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-02-02 with Mathematics categories.
Praise for the First Edition “If there is anything you want to know, or remindyourself, about probabilities, then look no further than thiscomprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of howto apply probability calculations in real-worldsituations.” - Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National PublicRadio’s “Math Guy” and author of The MathGene and The Unfinished Game From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities,Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, SecondEdition investigates the often surprising effects of risk andchance in our lives. Featuring a timely update, the SecondEdition continues to be the go-to guidebook for an entertainingpresentation on the mathematics of chance and uncertainty. The new edition develops the fundamental mathematics of probabilityin a unique, clear, and informal way so readers with various levelsof experience with probability can understand the little numbersfound in everyday life. Illustrating the concepts of probabilitythrough relevant and engaging real-world applications, theSecond Edition features numerous examples on weatherforecasts, DNA evidence, games and gambling, and medical testing.The revised edition also includes: The application of probability in finance, such as optionpricing The introduction of branching processes and the extinction offamily names An extended discussion on opinion polls and Nate Silver’selection predictions Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, SecondEdition is an ideal reference for anyone who would like toobtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance, as wellas a useful supplementary textbook for students in any coursedealing with probability.
Ignorance And Surprise
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Author : Matthias Gross
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2021-08-03
Ignorance And Surprise written by Matthias Gross and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-08-03 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The relationship between ignorance and surprise and a conceptual framework for dealing with the unexpected, as seen in ecological design projects. Ignorance and surprise belong together: surprises can make people aware of their own ignorance. And yet, perhaps paradoxically, a surprising event in scientific research—one that defies prediction or risk assessment—is often a window to new and unexpected knowledge. In this book, Matthias Gross examines the relationship between ignorance and surprise, proposing a conceptual framework for handling the unexpected and offering case studies of ecological design that demonstrate the advantages of allowing for surprises and including ignorance in the design and negotiation processes. Gross draws on classical and contemporary sociological accounts of ignorance and surprise in science and ecology and integrates these with the idea of experiment in society. He develops a notion of how unexpected occurrences can be incorporated into a model of scientific and technological development that includes the experimental handling of surprises. Gross discusses different projects in ecological design, including Chicago's restoration of the shoreline of Lake Michigan and Germany's revitalization of brownfields near Leipzig. These cases show how ignorance and surprise can successfully play out in ecological design projects, and how the acknowledgment of the unknown can become a part of decision making. The appropriation of surprises can lead to robust design strategies. Ecological design, Gross argues, is neither a linear process of master planning nor a process of trial and error but a carefully coordinated process of dealing with unexpected turns by means of experimental practice.
Novelty Information And Surprise
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Author : Günther Palm
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-01-02
Novelty Information And Surprise written by Günther Palm and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-02 with Mathematics categories.
This revised edition offers an approach to information theory that is more general than the classical approach of Shannon. Classically, information is defined for an alphabet of symbols or for a set of mutually exclusive propositions (a partition of the probability space Ω) with corresponding probabilities adding up to 1. The new definition is given for an arbitrary cover of Ω, i.e. for a set of possibly overlapping propositions. The generalized information concept is called novelty and it is accompanied by two concepts derived from it, designated as information and surprise, which describe "opposite" versions of novelty, information being related more to classical information theory and surprise being related more to the classical concept of statistical significance. In the discussion of these three concepts and their interrelations several properties or classes of covers are defined, which turn out to be lattices. The book also presents applications of these concepts, mostly in statistics and in neuroscience.
A General Theory Of Entropy
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Author : Kofi Kissi Dompere
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-08-02
A General Theory Of Entropy written by Kofi Kissi Dompere and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-02 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book presents an epistemic framework for dealing with information-knowledge and certainty-uncertainty problems within the space of quality-quantity dualities. It bridges between theoretical concepts of entropy and entropy measurements, proposing the concept and measurement of fuzzy-stochastic entropy that is applicable to all areas of knowing under human cognitive limitations over the epistemological space. The book builds on two previous monographs by the same author concerning theories of info-statics and info-dynamics, to deal with identification and transformation problems respectively. The theoretical framework is developed by using the toolboxes such as those of the principle of opposites, systems of actual-potential polarities and negative-positive dualities, under different cost-benefit time-structures. The category theory and the fuzzy paradigm of thought, under methodological constructionism-reductionism duality, are used in the fuzzy-stochastic and cost-benefit spaces to point to directions of global application in knowing, knowledge and decision-choice actions. Thus, the book is concerned with a general theory of entropy, showing how the fuzzy paradigm of thought is developed to deal with the problems of qualitative-quantitative uncertainties over the fuzzy-stochastic space, which will be applicable to conditions of soft-hard data, fact, evidence and knowledge over the spaces of problem-solution dualities, decision-choice actions in sciences, non-sciences, engineering and planning sciences to abstract acceptable information-knowledge elements.
The Science Of Risk Analysis
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2019-06-21
The Science Of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.
Anticipating Surprise Analysis For Strategic Warning
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Author : Cynthia M. Grabo
language : en
Publisher: Lulu.com
Release Date : 2012-08-12
Anticipating Surprise Analysis For Strategic Warning written by Cynthia M. Grabo and has been published by Lulu.com this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-12 with Political Science categories.
Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)
Time Ignorance And Uncertainty In Economic Models
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Author : Donald W. Katzner
language : en
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
Release Date : 1998
Time Ignorance And Uncertainty In Economic Models written by Donald W. Katzner and has been published by University of Michigan Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Business & Economics categories.
Formal economic analysis using Shackle's ideas of historical time and nonprobabilistic uncertainty
Climate Change And World Food Security
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Author : Thomas E. Downing
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-06-29
Climate Change And World Food Security written by Thomas E. Downing and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-29 with Science categories.
In the last half decade since sustainable development became a serious objective, what have we achieved? Are livelihoods more secure? Are nations wealthier and more resilient? Is environmental quality being restored or maintained? These are essential questions of development. Their answers are many, varied between communities and regions, even between individuals. Two years ago, in the aftermath of the Earth Summit and ratification of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but before the first Conference of Parties, I participated in a panel at the inaugural Oxford Environment Conference on Climate Change and World Food Security. The panel vigorously reviewed issues of resilient development and food security. This book is a product of the Oxford Environment Conference. It takes the essential questions of sustainability as a starting point to focus on present food security and its future prospects in the face of climate change. Why is this book important? First, I believe our goals to end hunger are under threat. We know what to do in many respects, but fail to generate the finances and political will to change the structures that thrive on poverty. Second, I believe concern about the environment has become dangerously separated from the fundamental issues of human deprivation. Third, I believe climate change is a serious threat and I am dismayed at the way nations dither over how to control greenhouse gas emissions and mechanisms to meet the challenge of adverse climate impacts.