Synchronization Of Endogenous Business Cycles

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Synchronization Of Endogenous Business Cycles

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Author : Marco Pangallo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023

Synchronization Of Endogenous Business Cycles written by Marco Pangallo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.

Business cycles tend to comove across countries. However, standard models that attribute comovement to propagation of exogenous shocks struggle to generate a level of co-movement that is as high as in the data. In this paper, we consider models that produce business cycles endogenously, through some form of non-linear dynamicsâ€"limit cycles or chaos. These models generate stronger comovement, because they combine shock propagation with synchronization of endogenous dynamics. In particular, we study a demand-driven model in which business cycles emerge from strategic complementarities within countries, synchronizing their oscillations through international trade linkages. We develop an eigen-decomposition that explores the interplay between non-linear dynamics, shock propagation and network structure, and use this theory to understand the mechanisms of synchronization. Next, we calibrate the model to data on 24 countries and show that the empirical level of comovement can only be matched by combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks. Our results lend support to the hypothesis that business cycles are at least in part caused by underlying non-linear dynamics.

Business Cycles In The Contemporary World

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Author : Bernd Süssmuth
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Business Cycles In The Contemporary World written by Bernd Süssmuth and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

The book provides a thorough and sophisticated descriptive analysis of business cycles in a historical perspective. The study is based on the latest available time series as well as latest techniques from the frequency domain. A combined univariate and bivariate analysis is conducted on the national as well as supranational (G7- and Euro-Area wide) level. Issues of stability, volatility, and cyclicality are investigated jointly. An extensive analysis of US manufacturing investment series on the fairly disaggregated four-digit level highlights the limits of linear models to capture the sectoral aggregation process. Synchronization is modelled by a mode-locking mechanism of industrial investment cycles induced by informational externalities. The model in its stochastic version is numerically simulated to assess an agreement between model and data.

Business Fluctuations And Cycles

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Author : T. Nagakawa
language : en
Publisher: Nova Publishers
Release Date : 2008

Business Fluctuations And Cycles written by T. Nagakawa and has been published by Nova Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.

The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the periodic fluctuations of economic activity about its long term growth trend. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), alternating with periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product. One of the government's main roles is to smooth out the business cycle and reduce its fluctuations. To call those alternances 'cycles' is rather misleading as they don't tend to repeat at fairly regular time intervals. Most observers find that their lengths (from peak to peak, or from trough to trough) vary, so that cycles are not mechanical in their regularity. Since no two cycles are alike in their details, some economists dispute the existence of cycles and use the word 'fluctuations' (or the like) instead. Others see enough similarities between cycles that the cycle is a valid basis of studying the state of the economy. A key question is whether or not there are similar mechanisms that generate recessions and/or booms that exist in capitalist economies so that the dynamics that appear as a cycle will be seen again and again. This new book presents leading-edge research in this field.

Hysteresis And Business Cycles

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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29

Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Endogenous Business Cycles And Growth

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003

Endogenous Business Cycles And Growth written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business cycles categories.

Endogenous Business Cycles And The Dynamics Of Output Hours And Consumption

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Author : Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999

Endogenous Business Cycles And The Dynamics Of Output Hours And Consumption written by Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business cycles categories.

Business Cycles And Financial Crises

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Author : A. W. Mullineux
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990

Business Cycles And Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.

A Study On Business Cycle Synchronization In Advanced Economies

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Author : Mansokku Lee
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013

A Study On Business Cycle Synchronization In Advanced Economies written by Mansokku Lee and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business cycles categories.

International Correlation Of Business Cycles In A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model

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Author : Paul De Grauwe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016

International Correlation Of Business Cycles In A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model written by Paul De Grauwe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Belief and doubt categories.

Business cycles among industrial countries are highly correlated. We develop a two-country behavioral macroeconomic model where the synchronization of the business cycle is produced endogenously. The main channel of synchronization occurs through a propagation of "animal spirits", i.e. waves of optimism and pessimism that become correlated internationally. We find that this propagation occurs with relatively low levels of trade integration. We do not need a correlation of exogenous shocks to generate synchronization. We also empirically test the main predictions of the model.

International Business Cycle Synchronization In Historical Perspective

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Author : Michael D. Bordo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010

International Business Cycle Synchronization In Historical Perspective written by Michael D. Bordo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business cycles categories.

In this paper, we review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries and the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the trend toward synchronization. Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.