A Study On Business Cycle Synchronization In Advanced Economies
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A Study On Business Cycle Synchronization In Advanced Economies
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Author : Mansokku Lee
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
A Study On Business Cycle Synchronization In Advanced Economies written by Mansokku Lee and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business cycles categories.
How Does Globalization Affect The Synchronization Of Business Cycles
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Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-03-04
How Does Globalization Affect The Synchronization Of Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-03-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
Economic Cycles In Emerging And Advanced Countries
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Author : Antonio Pesce
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-04-20
Economic Cycles In Emerging And Advanced Countries written by Antonio Pesce and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-20 with Business & Economics categories.
This book contributes to the debate on the decoupling of emerging economies from the advanced economies with a new, empirical investigation approach. Taking counterfactual experiments performed using a time-varying panel VAR model, the author argues that over the last thirty years, emerging economies have become less vulnerable to shocks spreading from advanced economies. This resilience to external shocks has changed in a non-progressive manner over time, with phases of greater resilience followed by others of lower resilience and vice versa. This research outlines its wave-like path and presents new results that contribute to the discussion.
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Mr.Romain A Duval
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-03
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Eric Monnet
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-08
Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization written by Eric Monnet and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880
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Author : Michael J. Artis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880 written by Michael J. Artis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Business cycles categories.
This paper studies the international business cycle behaviour across 25 advanced and emerging market economies for which 125 years of annual GDP data are available. The picture that emerges is more fragmented than the one drawn by studies that focused on a narrower set of advanced market economies. The paper offers evidence in favour of a secular increase in international business cycle synchronization within a group of European and a group of Englishspeaking economies that started during 1950-1973 and accelerated since 1973. Yet, in other regions of the world, country-specific shocks are still the dominant forces of business cycle dynamics.
Business Cycles In The Contemporary World
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Author : Bernd Süssmuth
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Business Cycles In The Contemporary World written by Bernd Süssmuth and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The book provides a thorough and sophisticated descriptive analysis of business cycles in a historical perspective. The study is based on the latest available time series as well as latest techniques from the frequency domain. A combined univariate and bivariate analysis is conducted on the national as well as supranational (G7- and Euro-Area wide) level. Issues of stability, volatility, and cyclicality are investigated jointly. An extensive analysis of US manufacturing investment series on the fairly disaggregated four-digit level highlights the limits of linear models to capture the sectoral aggregation process. Synchronization is modelled by a mode-locking mechanism of industrial investment cycles induced by informational externalities. The model in its stochastic version is numerically simulated to assess an agreement between model and data.
Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Robert Miguel W. K. Kollmann
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization written by Robert Miguel W. K. Kollmann and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Business cycles categories.
The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are highly correlated internationally. The model assumes recursive intertemporal preferences (Epstein-Zin-Weil), and a muted response of labor hours to household wealth changes (due to Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman period utility and demand-determined employment under rigid wages). Recursive intertemporal preferences magnify the terms of trade response to country-specific shocks. Hence, a productivity (and GDP) increase in a given country triggers a strong improvement of the foreign country's terms of trade, which raises foreign labor demand. With a muted labor wealth effect, foreign labor and GDP rise, i.e. domestic and foreign real activity comove positively.
Asian Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Dong He
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Asian Business Cycle Synchronization written by Dong He and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
This paper develops a multilevel structural factor model to study international output comovement and its underlying driving forces. Our method combines a structural vector autoregression with a multilevel factor model, which helps us understand the economic meaning of the estimated factors. Using quarterly data of real GDP growth covering 9 emerging Asian economies and G-7 countries, we estimate a global supply factor, a global demand factor, and group supply and demand factors for each group of the economies. We find that although the role of the global factors has intensified over the past 15 years for most of the economies, output fluctuations in Asia have remained less synchronized with the global factor than those in the industrial countries. The Asian regional factors have become increasingly important in tightening the interdependence within the region over time. Therefore, although emerging Asian economies cannot 'decouple' completely from the advanced economies, they have, nonetheless, sustained a strong independent cycle among themselves. We also find that synchronized supply shocks contributed more to the observed synchronization in output fluctuations among the Asian economies than demand shocks. This points to the role of productivity enhancement and transmission of other supply shocks through, for example, vertical trade integration, rather than dependence on external demand, as the primary source of business cycle synchronization in emerging Asia.
One Ring To Rule Them All New Evidence On World Cycles
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Author : Eric Monnet
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-20
One Ring To Rule Them All New Evidence On World Cycles written by Eric Monnet and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-20 with Business & Economics categories.
We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. World cycles, both real and financial, exist and are generally driven by US shocks. But their impact is modest for most countries. The global financial cycle is also much weaker when looking at credit rather than asset prices. We also challenge the view that syncronization has increased over time. Although this is true for prices (goods and assets), this not true for quantities (output and credit). The world business and credit cycles were as strong during Bretton Woods (1950–1972) as during the Globalization period (1984-2006). For most countries, the way their output co-moves with the rest of the world has changed little over the last 70 years. We discuss the reasons behind these new findings and their policy implications for small open economies.