Synopsis Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis
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Synopsis Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis
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Author : Dorosh, Paul A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-08-22
Synopsis Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-22 with Political Science categories.
Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy. There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well. Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor. Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points. A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.
Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis
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Author : Dorosh, Paul A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-07-07
Implications Of Public Investments And External Shocks On Agriculture Economic Growth And Poverty In Papua New Guinea An Economywide Analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-07-07 with Political Science categories.
Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population. This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks. The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.
Impacts Of The Russia Ukraine War Price Shocks On The Bangladesh Economy A General Equilibrium Analysis
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Author : Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2023-05-04
Impacts Of The Russia Ukraine War Price Shocks On The Bangladesh Economy A General Equilibrium Analysis written by Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-04 with Political Science categories.
The spike in global commodity prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has had major adverse impacts on many developing countries, including Bangladesh, that still depend heavily on energy and food imports. Although the Bangladesh economy has rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest global trade shock has threated to increase food insecurity and poverty. This study utilizes the Bangladesh RIAPA economywide model to assess the impact of increases in global commodity prices and explores potential policy interventions to reduce negative impacts. Simulation results show that increases in international commodity prices create a GDP loss of 0.36 percent and an increase of three million in the number of poor (mainly rural poor). Energy price shocks account for most of this decline in real GDP (0.28 percent). The fertilizer subsidy helps spur agriculture production which leads to an increase in crop GDP by 0.78 percent and total agricultural GDP by 0.43 percent. Changes in policy could help mitigate the effects of these price shocks. In particular, petroleum subsidies would help increase production in both agriculture and services, leading to a 0.3 percent increase in household consumption, considerably more than the gain under a targeted cash transfer policy of equal cost. However, given that the petroleum subsidy does not specifically target the poor, it only reduces poverty by a fraction of what a targeted cash transfer would. Moreover, as illustrated by the experiences of other countries, increases in a fuel subsidy, once introduced, are likely to be very difficult to reverse. This suggests that if the major policy goal is to reduce poverty, a direct cash transfer would be more effective than the other policy options considered here. Combining these policies, however, would be even more effective than any single intervention, reducing poverty incidence by around 2.5 million people, and thereby preventing nearly all of the potential increase in poverty resulting from global price shocks.
Poverty Impact Analysis
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Author : Guntur Sugiyarto
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Poverty Impact Analysis written by Guntur Sugiyarto and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Asia categories.
Structural Change Fundamentals And Growth A Framework And Case Studies
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Author : McMillan, Margaret
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2017-05-11
Structural Change Fundamentals And Growth A Framework And Case Studies written by McMillan, Margaret and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-11 with Political Science categories.
Infrastructure For Supporting Inclusive Growth And Poverty Reduction In Asia
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Author : Asian Development Bank
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2012-05-01
Infrastructure For Supporting Inclusive Growth And Poverty Reduction In Asia written by Asian Development Bank and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This publication summarizes the papers and presentations in Workshops on Economics of Infrastructure in a Globalized World, funded by the Asian Development Bank through a regional technical assistance project. The discussions at the conferences focused on three themes: (i) the role of infrastructure in supporting inclusive growth and poverty reduction; (ii) the need for appropriate soft infrastructure, including the policy environment and regulatory institutions; and (iii) the potential for public and private partnerships in infrastructure provision. Each theme elaborates the premise that extensive, efficient infrastructure services are essential drivers of economic growth and sustainable poverty reduction.
The Role Of Trade In Ending Poverty
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
The Role Of Trade In Ending Poverty written by World Bank Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Political Science categories.
Trade will have an important role at the global level in generating the growth necessary for reducing extreme poverty to 3 percent and boosting prosperity for the poorest 40 percent by 2030. To identify the most important challenges that exist in maximizing the positive impact of trade on poverty, we need to understand who the poor are, where they are, and what economic activities they undertake. To this end, the study highlights particularly relevant dimensions of poverty: rural poverty in remote areas, informality, fragile and conflict situations, and women. For each of these issues, this study considers the main traderelated barriers and challenges, along with policy responses to address them. It shows the importance of the multilateral trading system and of the Doha Round, as well as the important role of the WBG and WTO in promoting coherence and implementing trade policies in a way that delivers the greatest possible benefits for the poor.
The Role Of Agriculture In Development
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Author : Xinshen Diao
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2007
The Role Of Agriculture In Development written by Xinshen Diao and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
Changes in the global environment have led some to question whether the conventional wisdom on the role of agriculture in economic development is still relevant to Africa today. This report critically examines the literature on this issue, taking both the conventional and skeptical views into account. It complements this review with case studies of five African countries. The findings indicate that agricultural growth will play an essential role in promoting overall economic growth and reducing poverty in most of Africa's agrarian-based economies. This holds true even for countries that have the potential for industrial growth driven by natural resources. The results also show that only smallholder food-staple and livestock production can generate broadbased agricultural growth. By demonstrating that Africa's agricultural and food subsector cannot be bypassed, this report contributes to an important ongoing debate in development studies.
Poverty And Social Impact Analysis Of Reforms
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Author : Aline Coudouel
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2006-01-01
Poverty And Social Impact Analysis Of Reforms written by Aline Coudouel and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-01-01 with Social Science categories.
"Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) is an approach used increasingly by governments, civil society organizations, the World Bank, and other development partners to examine the distributional impacts of policy reforms on the well-being of different stakeholders groups, particularly the poor and vulnerable. PSIA has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries because it promotes evidence-based policy choices and fosters debate on policy reform options. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms presents a collection of case studies that illustrate the spectrum of sectors and policy reforms to which PSIA can be applied; it also elaborates on the broad range of analytical tools and techniques that can be used for PSIA. The case studies provide examples of the impact that PSIA can have on the design of policy reforms and draw operational lessons for PSIA implementation. The case studies deal largely with policy reforms in a single sector, such as agriculture (crop marketing boards in Malawi and Tanzania and cotton privatization in Tajikistan); energy (mining sector in Romania and oil subsidies in Ghana); utilities (power sector reform in Ghana, Rwanda, and transition economies, and water sector reform in Albania); social sectors (education reform in Mozambique and social welfare reform in Sri Lanka); taxation reform (Nicaragua); as well as macroeconomic modeling (Burkina Faso)."
Index Of Publications
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Author : World Bank
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1986
Index Of Publications written by World Bank and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1986 with Developing countries categories.