Systematic Risk Profiling A Novel Approach With Applications To Kenya Rwanda And Malawi
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Systematic Risk Profiling A Novel Approach With Applications To Kenya Rwanda And Malawi
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Author : Mukashov, Askar
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date :
Systematic Risk Profiling A Novel Approach With Applications To Kenya Rwanda And Malawi written by Mukashov, Askar and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Political Science categories.
This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.
Rwanda Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks
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Author : Mukashov, Askar
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2025-04-29
Rwanda Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks written by Mukashov, Askar and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-04-29 with Political Science categories.
This study explores Rwanda’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Rwandan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic root and cereal yield volatility risks are the most important for GDP, poverty, and undernourishment outcomes, while external factors like world energy prices pose the most significant risks to high-income households’ consumption. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Rwandan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.
Kenya Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks
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Author : Mukashov, Askar
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2025-04-29
Kenya Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks written by Mukashov, Askar and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-04-29 with Political Science categories.
This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of po-tential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture do-mestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP, urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, partic-ularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.
Nepal Economywide Risk Assessment
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Author : Mukashov, Askar
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2025-02-21
Nepal Economywide Risk Assessment written by Mukashov, Askar and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-02-21 with Political Science categories.
This study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncer-tainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impact on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernour-ishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy.
Papua New Guinea Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks
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Author : Mukashov, Askar
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2025-03-26
Papua New Guinea Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks written by Mukashov, Askar and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-03-26 with Political Science categories.
Using an economy-wide, multi-sectoral model, this study explores potential vulnerability of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to economic shocks and identifies factors that contribute most to economic uncertainty. Economic scenarios were developed using historical data on volatile domestic sectors (e.g., primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation) and world prices of goods and services in which PNG trades. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of PNG was used to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under these scenarios. In addition, data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes. Key findings suggest that Papua New Guinea’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with world prices and foreign capital volatility together accounting for approximately two-thirds of the potential variation in GDP and three-fourths of the potential variation in private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment (domestic production volatility contributes the remaining one-third and one-fourth, respectively). The current structure of the PNG economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, it is relatively less important compared to the overall economy; export earnings from energy and metals, as well as volatile foreign exchange capital inflows, play a much more significant role in the country’s current economic risks. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the PNG economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production away from high-risk sectors.
Zambia Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks
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Author : Mukashov, Askar
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2025-04-29
Zambia Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks written by Mukashov, Askar and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-04-29 with Political Science categories.
This study explores Zambia’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Zambian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data on domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of these outcomes. We find that Zambia’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with foreign capital flows and world market price volatility together accounting for approximately three-fourths of potential variations in GDP, private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. Domestic agricultural yield volatilities contribute the remaining one-fourth. The current struc-ture of the Zambian economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, its relatively small contribution to GDP limits its economywide and macroeconomic impacts. Instead, export earnings from cop-per and foreign exchange capital flows play a much more significant role in shaping Zambia's economic risks and their social and economic impacts. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Zambian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.
Ethiopia Systematic Analysis Of World Market And Domestic Production Shocks
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Author : Mukashov, Askar
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2025-04-21
Ethiopia Systematic Analysis Of World Market And Domestic Production Shocks written by Mukashov, Askar and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-04-21 with Political Science categories.
This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Ethiopia’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Ethiopia’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?
Bangladesh Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks
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Author : Mukashov, Askar
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2024-12-30
Bangladesh Systematic Analysis Of Domestic Production And World Market Shocks written by Mukashov, Askar and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-30 with Political Science categories.
This study explores Bangladesh’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to eco-nomic uncertainty. The Bangladesh Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various shock scenarios sampled using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market price uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings suggest that potential variation in Bangladesh’s GDP ranges from +0.8 to -1.0 percent to baseline, with domestic shocks ac-counting for 53.7 percent of uncertainty, and remaining 41.7 percent are explained by the volatility of world market prices and Foreign Exchange (FX) flows. At the same time, private consumption is more uncertain (from +4.0 to -3.5 percent to base), and external factors are the most important risk contributors (70.1 percent is world prices and 2.9 percent is FX flows). Similarly, external factors contribute roughly two-thirds to the potential variation of national poverty and undernourishment rates that fluctuate from -2.4 to +1.8 and –2.2 to +1.9 relative to the baseline rates percentage points respectively. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Bang-ladesh economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.
Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1986-04
Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1986-04 with categories.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.