Taming Uncertainty
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Taming An Uncertain Future
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Author : Liam P.D. Stockdale
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing PLC
Release Date : 2015-12-16
Taming An Uncertain Future written by Liam P.D. Stockdale and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing PLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-16 with Philosophy categories.
A popular cliché in contemporary public discourse holds that we live in a time of increasing uncertainty; that the next catastrophe is perpetually imminent and yet increasingly beyond our capacity to foresee. The future, in short, is becoming much more difficult to control. One consequence of this increasingly widespread understanding of the future is that societies have turned to anticipatory governance strategies based on such concepts as risk management, the precautionary principle, and pre-emption to manage human affairs. This book takes an in-depth look at this trend by using the example of the ‘pre-emptive security’ strategies deployed in the post-9/11 War on Terror to develop a critical understanding of how the proliferation of such anticipatory governance strategies affects the way political power is organized and exercised. The book also makes a wider case for taking issues of time and the future more seriously in the study of contemporary global politics in particular and the social world more generally.
Taming Uncertainty
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Author : Ralph Hertwig
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2019-08-13
Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-13 with Psychology categories.
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Weighing Uncertainty Mastering Probability In An Uncertain World
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Author : Pasquale De Marco
language : en
Publisher: Pasquale De Marco
Release Date : 2025-05-01
Weighing Uncertainty Mastering Probability In An Uncertain World written by Pasquale De Marco and has been published by Pasquale De Marco this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-01 with Self-Help categories.
Embark on a transformative journey to understand, navigate, and thrive in a world of uncertainty with Weighing Uncertainty: Mastering Probability in an Uncertain World. This comprehensive guide delves into the complexities of uncertainty, providing a roadmap for embracing the unknown and unlocking your full potential. In a world where change is the only constant, uncertainty is an inescapable reality. From personal decisions to global challenges, we are constantly faced with situations where the outcome is far from certain. This book equips you with the tools and strategies to navigate these uncertain waters with confidence and resilience. Through engaging storytelling and real-life examples, Weighing Uncertainty explores the nature of uncertainty, its impact on our decision-making, and the cognitive biases that often lead us astray. You'll discover how to recognize and overcome these biases, making more informed and rational choices in the face of ambiguity. The book also delves into the role of uncertainty in science, research, and everyday life, providing practical guidance on how to deal with incomplete information and make informed decisions. You'll learn how to gather and evaluate evidence, consider multiple perspectives, and adapt to changing circumstances. Weighing Uncertainty is more than just a guide to managing uncertainty; it's an invitation to embrace it as a catalyst for growth and transformation. By accepting and embracing uncertainty, you open yourself up to new possibilities, foster creativity and innovation, and cultivate a mindset that thrives on change. This book is an essential resource for anyone seeking to navigate the complexities of an uncertain world with resilience, adaptability, and a sense of purpose. Discover the power of uncertainty and unlock the hidden opportunities that lie within. If you like this book, write a review on google books!
An Introduction To Self Adaptive Systems
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Author : Danny Weyns
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2020-10-05
An Introduction To Self Adaptive Systems written by Danny Weyns and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-05 with Technology & Engineering categories.
A concise and practical introduction to the foundations and engineering principles of self-adaptation Though it has recently gained significant momentum, the topic of self-adaptation remains largely under-addressed in academic and technical literature. This book changes that. Using a systematic and holistic approach, An Introduction to Self-adaptive Systems: A Contemporary Software Engineering Perspective provides readers with an accessible set of basic principles, engineering foundations, and applications of self-adaptation in software-intensive systems. It places self-adaptation in the context of techniques like uncertainty management, feedback control, online reasoning, and machine learning while acknowledging the growing consensus in the software engineering community that self-adaptation will be a crucial enabling feature in tackling the challenges of new, emerging, and future systems. The author combines cutting-edge technical research with basic principles and real-world insights to create a practical and strategically effective guide to self-adaptation. He includes features such as: An analysis of the foundational engineering principles and applications of self-adaptation in different domains, including the Internet-of-Things, cloud computing, and cyber-physical systems End-of-chapter exercises at four different levels of complexity and difficulty An accompanying author-hosted website with slides, selected exercises and solutions, models, and code Perfect for researchers, students, teachers, industry leaders, and practitioners in fields that directly or peripherally involve software engineering, as well as those in academia involved in a class on self-adaptivity, this book belongs on the shelves of anyone with an interest in the future of software and its engineering.
Uncertainty And Economics
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Author : Christian Müller-Kademann
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2019-01-08
Uncertainty And Economics written by Christian Müller-Kademann and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is set against the assumption that humans' unique feature is their infinite creativity, their ability to reflect on their deeds and to control their actions. These skills give rise to genuine uncertainty in society and hence in the economy. Here, the author sets out that uncertainty must take centre stage in all analyses of human decision making and therefore in economics. Uncertainty and Economics carefully defines a taxonomy of uncertainty and argues that it is only uncertainty in its most radical form which matters to economics. It shows that uncertainty is a powerful concept that not only helps to resolve long-standing economic puzzles but also unveils serious contradictions within current, popular economic approaches. It argues that neoclassical, real business cycle, or new-Keynesian economics must be understood as only one way to circumvent the analytical challenges posed by uncertainty. Instead, embracing uncertainty offers a new analytical paradigm which, in this book, is applied to standard economic topics such as institutions, money, the Lucas critique, fiscal policy and asset pricing. Through applying a concise uncertainty paradigm, the book sheds new light on human decision making at large. Offering policy conclusions and recommendations for further theoretical and applied research, it will be of great interest to postgraduate students, academics and policy makers.
Care Uncertainty And Intergenerational Ethics
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Author : C. Groves
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-12-02
Care Uncertainty And Intergenerational Ethics written by C. Groves and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-02 with Philosophy categories.
Our capacity to reshape the future has never been more powerful. Yet our ability to foresee the consequences of what we do has not kept pace. Is the idea that we have responsibilities to future generations therefore meaningful? This book argues that it is, with the aid of a unique reading of the care ethics tradition.
Project Management Professional Pmp Unleashed
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Author : Azhar ul Haque Sario
language : en
Publisher: Azhar ul Haque Sario
Release Date : 2025-03-20
Project Management Professional Pmp Unleashed written by Azhar ul Haque Sario and has been published by Azhar ul Haque Sario this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-03-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Hey, ever wondered what it takes to turn a project from chaos to a masterpiece? Welcome to Project Management Professional Unleashed: Sculpting Success Through Harmony and Valor. This isn’t your typical project management book. It’s a journey into the heart of leading with vision. It’s about building teams that hum with synergy. It dives into wrangling conflict with finesse. You’ll learn to dance with schedules and budgets. It’s packed with real-world stories—like a manager rallying a software team with a bold vision or a construction lead pivoting styles to match crew vibes. The book spans 17 chapters. Each one’s a fresh take on the craft. Think leadership that inspires. Teams that evolve. Stakeholders who gel. Risks that get tamed. It’s all here—short, punchy insights drawn from the PMP exam outline. From virtual team hacks to procurement wizardry, it’s your guide to sculpting project wins. So, what makes this book stand out? It’s got a competitive edge other books miss. Most guides give you dry checklists or recycled jargon. Not this one. It blends gritty research—like transformational leadership or agile learning—with practical magic. It’s not just about passing the PMP exam; it’s about living it. You’ll find value in every page—whether it’s decoding conflict triggers or boosting morale with a milestone party. Other books stop at theory; this one hands you tools to adapt, connect, and deliver. It’s your secret weapon for projects that don’t just finish but shine. Picture this: you’re leading a project, and tensions are high—designers and engineers at odds. This book shows you how to step in, read the room, and broker peace with emotional smarts (Chapter 4). Or maybe you’re juggling a remote crew across time zones. Chapter 7’s got your back with virtual team alchemy—think staggered standups that actually work. We’re talking 17 chapters of pure gold, from crafting a vision that lights a fire under your team (Chapter 1) to closing out with lessons that stick (Chapter 16). It’s built on the PMP’s big three—People, Process, and Business Environment—but it’s no snooze-fest. You get research-backed ideas, like Tuckman’s team stages or Goleman’s emotional intelligence, paired with stories that hit home. Ever seen a manager turn a budget clash into a win-win? You will here. This isn’t just a book—it’s a playbook for real project heroes. You’ll master empowering your team to own their wins (Chapter 3), nailing scope so nothing slips (Chapter 9), and even riding external curveballs like new regs (Chapter 17). It’s conversational, not preachy. Think of it as a chat with a mentor who’s been there—someone who knows projects are messy, human, and thrilling. Whether you’re prepping for the PMP or just want to level up, Project Management Professional Unleashed sculpts you into a leader who doesn’t just manage but transforms. Ready to unleash your project valor? Let’s dive in.
Classification In The Wild
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Author : Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2021-02-02
Classification In The Wild written by Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-02 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.
Rules for building formal models that use fast-and-frugal heuristics, extending the psychological study of classification to the real world of uncertainty. This book focuses on classification--allocating objects into categories--"in the wild," in real-world situations and far from the certainty of the lab. In the wild, unlike in typical psychological experiments, the future is not knowable and uncertainty cannot be meaningfully reduced to probability. Connecting the science of heuristics with machine learning, the book shows how to create formal models using classification rules that are simple, fast, and transparent and that can be as accurate as mathematically sophisticated algorithms developed for machine learning.
Enterprise Risk Management In Today S World
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Author : Jean-Paul Louisot
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2024-10-28
Enterprise Risk Management In Today S World written by Jean-Paul Louisot and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Enterprise Risk Management in Today’s World examines enterprise risk management in its past, present and future, exploring the role that directors and leaders in organizations have in devising risk management strategies, analysing values such as trust, resilience, CSR and governance within organizations.
Software Engineering For Self Adaptive Systems Iii Assurances
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Author : Rogério de Lemos
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-01-16
Software Engineering For Self Adaptive Systems Iii Assurances written by Rogério de Lemos and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-16 with Computers categories.
A major challenge for modern software systems is to become more cost-effective, while being versatile, flexible, resilient, energy-efficient, customizable, and configurable when reacting to run-time changes that may occur within the system itself, its environment or requirements. One of the most promising approaches to achieving such properties is to equip the software system with self-adaptation capabilities. Despite recent advances in this area, one key aspect that remains to be tackled in depth is the provision of assurances. Originating from a Dagstuhl seminar held in December 2013, this book constitutes the third volume in the series “Software Engineering for Self-Adaptive Systems”, and looks specifically into the provision of assurances. Opening with an overview chapter on Research Challenges, the book presents 13 further chapters written and carefully reviewed by internationally leading researchers in the field. The book is divided into topical sections on research challenges, evaluation, integration and coordination, and reference architectures and platforms.