Taming Uncertainty
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Taming An Uncertain Future
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Author : Liam P.D. Stockdale
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing PLC
Release Date : 2015-12-16
Taming An Uncertain Future written by Liam P.D. Stockdale and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing PLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-16 with Philosophy categories.
A popular cliché in contemporary public discourse holds that we live in a time of increasing uncertainty; that the next catastrophe is perpetually imminent and yet increasingly beyond our capacity to foresee. The future, in short, is becoming much more difficult to control. One consequence of this increasingly widespread understanding of the future is that societies have turned to anticipatory governance strategies based on such concepts as risk management, the precautionary principle, and pre-emption to manage human affairs. This book takes an in-depth look at this trend by using the example of the ‘pre-emptive security’ strategies deployed in the post-9/11 War on Terror to develop a critical understanding of how the proliferation of such anticipatory governance strategies affects the way political power is organized and exercised. The book also makes a wider case for taking issues of time and the future more seriously in the study of contemporary global politics in particular and the social world more generally.
Taming Uncertainty
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Author : Ralph Hertwig
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2019-08-13
Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-13 with Psychology categories.
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Weighing Uncertainty Mastering Probability In An Uncertain World
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Author : Pasquale De Marco
language : en
Publisher: Pasquale De Marco
Release Date : 2025-05-01
Weighing Uncertainty Mastering Probability In An Uncertain World written by Pasquale De Marco and has been published by Pasquale De Marco this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-01 with Self-Help categories.
Embark on a transformative journey to understand, navigate, and thrive in a world of uncertainty with Weighing Uncertainty: Mastering Probability in an Uncertain World. This comprehensive guide delves into the complexities of uncertainty, providing a roadmap for embracing the unknown and unlocking your full potential. In a world where change is the only constant, uncertainty is an inescapable reality. From personal decisions to global challenges, we are constantly faced with situations where the outcome is far from certain. This book equips you with the tools and strategies to navigate these uncertain waters with confidence and resilience. Through engaging storytelling and real-life examples, Weighing Uncertainty explores the nature of uncertainty, its impact on our decision-making, and the cognitive biases that often lead us astray. You'll discover how to recognize and overcome these biases, making more informed and rational choices in the face of ambiguity. The book also delves into the role of uncertainty in science, research, and everyday life, providing practical guidance on how to deal with incomplete information and make informed decisions. You'll learn how to gather and evaluate evidence, consider multiple perspectives, and adapt to changing circumstances. Weighing Uncertainty is more than just a guide to managing uncertainty; it's an invitation to embrace it as a catalyst for growth and transformation. By accepting and embracing uncertainty, you open yourself up to new possibilities, foster creativity and innovation, and cultivate a mindset that thrives on change. This book is an essential resource for anyone seeking to navigate the complexities of an uncertain world with resilience, adaptability, and a sense of purpose. Discover the power of uncertainty and unlock the hidden opportunities that lie within. If you like this book, write a review on google books!
Care Uncertainty And Intergenerational Ethics
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Author : C. Groves
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-12-02
Care Uncertainty And Intergenerational Ethics written by C. Groves and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-02 with Philosophy categories.
Our capacity to reshape the future has never been more powerful. Yet our ability to foresee the consequences of what we do has not kept pace. Is the idea that we have responsibilities to future generations therefore meaningful? This book argues that it is, with the aid of a unique reading of the care ethics tradition.
An Introduction To Self Adaptive Systems
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Author : Danny Weyns
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2020-10-19
An Introduction To Self Adaptive Systems written by Danny Weyns and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-19 with Technology & Engineering categories.
A concise and practical introduction to the foundations and engineering principles of self-adaptation Though it has recently gained significant momentum, the topic of self-adaptation remains largely under-addressed in academic and technical literature. This book changes that. Using a systematic and holistic approach, An Introduction to Self-adaptive Systems: A Contemporary Software Engineering Perspective provides readers with an accessible set of basic principles, engineering foundations, and applications of self-adaptation in software-intensive systems. It places self-adaptation in the context of techniques like uncertainty management, feedback control, online reasoning, and machine learning while acknowledging the growing consensus in the software engineering community that self-adaptation will be a crucial enabling feature in tackling the challenges of new, emerging, and future systems. The author combines cutting-edge technical research with basic principles and real-world insights to create a practical and strategically effective guide to self-adaptation. He includes features such as: An analysis of the foundational engineering principles and applications of self-adaptation in different domains, including the Internet-of-Things, cloud computing, and cyber-physical systems End-of-chapter exercises at four different levels of complexity and difficulty An accompanying author-hosted website with slides, selected exercises and solutions, models, and code Perfect for researchers, students, teachers, industry leaders, and practitioners in fields that directly or peripherally involve software engineering, as well as those in academia involved in a class on self-adaptivity, this book belongs on the shelves of anyone with an interest in the future of software and its engineering.
Public Diplomacy And The Politics Of Uncertainty
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Author : Pawel Surowiec
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-10-26
Public Diplomacy And The Politics Of Uncertainty written by Pawel Surowiec and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-26 with Political Science categories.
This edited book explores the multi-layered relationships between public diplomacy and intensified uncertainties stemming from transnational political trends. It is the latest wave of political uncertainty that provides the background as well as yields evidence scrutinised by authors contributing to this book. The book argues that due to a state of perpetual crises, the simultaneity of diplomatic tensions and new digital modalities of power, international politics increasingly resembles a networked set of hyper-realities. Embracing multi-polar competition, superpowers such as Russia flex their muscles over their neighbours; celebrated ‘success stories’ of democratisation – Hungary, Poland and Czechia – move towards illiberal governance; old players of international politics such as Britain and America re-claim “greatness”, while other states, like China, adapt expansionist foreign policy goals. The contributors to this book consider the different ways in which transnational political trends and digitalisation breed uncertainty and shape the practice of public diplomacy.
Hyperefficient
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Author : Mithu Storoni
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2024-09-17
Hyperefficient written by Mithu Storoni and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-17 with Psychology categories.
Optimize your life using science-backed advice and discover how to get your brain working at peak efficiency. We all know how to nudge our brains to perform better. A strong cup of coffee helps us get through a dull meeting, and a brisk walk helps us think more clearly. But what if some nudges could optimise how we focus, create and process information even more effectively, to take mental performance to new heights? Today, most office workers are expected to operate with industrial-era efficiency. Yet the work that matters most in our technology-dominated workplace – generating brilliant ideas, solving complex problems, and learning – can’t be manufactured like outputs on an assembly line. Instead, we need a new, HYPEREFFICIENT way of working: rather than imposing the rhythms of work on our brains, Dr. Mithu Storoni proposes we impose the rhythm of our brains on our work. Storoni explains that our brains function like a car’s engine, with multiple gears that put our brains in optimal mode for different mental challenges. Drawing on the latest research, she shows us how to seamlessly shift our brains into the best gear for the tasks we need to be doing, so we can perform at our best throughout the day, every day.
Uncertainty And Economics
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Author : Christian Müller-Kademann
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2019-01-08
Uncertainty And Economics written by Christian Müller-Kademann and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is set against the assumption that humans' unique feature is their infinite creativity, their ability to reflect on their deeds and to control their actions. These skills give rise to genuine uncertainty in society and hence in the economy. Here, the author sets out that uncertainty must take centre stage in all analyses of human decision making and therefore in economics. Uncertainty and Economics carefully defines a taxonomy of uncertainty and argues that it is only uncertainty in its most radical form which matters to economics. It shows that uncertainty is a powerful concept that not only helps to resolve long-standing economic puzzles but also unveils serious contradictions within current, popular economic approaches. It argues that neoclassical, real business cycle, or new-Keynesian economics must be understood as only one way to circumvent the analytical challenges posed by uncertainty. Instead, embracing uncertainty offers a new analytical paradigm which, in this book, is applied to standard economic topics such as institutions, money, the Lucas critique, fiscal policy and asset pricing. Through applying a concise uncertainty paradigm, the book sheds new light on human decision making at large. Offering policy conclusions and recommendations for further theoretical and applied research, it will be of great interest to postgraduate students, academics and policy makers.
The Paradox Of True Knowledge Embracing The Wisdom Of Humility
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Author : Harshwardhan Soni
language : en
Publisher: Harsh Wardhan Soni
Release Date : 2024-09-08
The Paradox Of True Knowledge Embracing The Wisdom Of Humility written by Harshwardhan Soni and has been published by Harsh Wardhan Soni this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-08 with Philosophy categories.
"The Paradox of True Knowledge: Embracing the Wisdom of Humility" In your book, the central theme revolves around the paradoxical nature of true knowledge and the essential role that humility plays in navigating the complexities of understanding. The chapters explore the intricate dynamics of human curiosity, the boundaries of comprehension, the uncertainty principle in physics, the illusion of certainty, and the wisdom found in Socratic inquiry. Throughout the narrative, there is a consistent emphasis on the value of humility as a guiding principle in the pursuit of wisdom and genuine understanding. The joy of discovery, the power of asking questions, the beauty of mystery, and the role of perspective all contribute to the overarching theme that true knowledge is paradoxically intertwined with embracing humility. The book celebrates the ongoing, humbling, and enriching journey of understanding while emphasizing the contentment found in the pursuit of genuine wisdom.
Uncertain Eternity Or Eternal Uncertainty
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Author : Karel Svačina
language : en
Publisher: Masarykova univerzita
Release Date : 2019-01-01
Uncertain Eternity Or Eternal Uncertainty written by Karel Svačina and has been published by Masarykova univerzita this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-01 with Crafts & Hobbies categories.
Tato kniha se zabývá sporem o plány na výstavbu hlubinného úložiště pro vysoce radioaktivní odpad v České republice. Od 90. let státní orgány vytipovaly několik míst, která by pro výstavbu úložiště mohla být vhodná. Záměr se však setkal s trvalým odporem dotčených obcí i neziskových organizací. Spor trvá bezmála dvě desetiletí, a dá se říci, že zatím nedošlo k výraznému posunu. Kniha podrobně rozebírá dotyčný spor na základě analýzy rozhovorů s klíčovými aktéry, pozorování z jednání a debat, vládních dokumentů či technických zpráv. S pomocí literatury vědních studií kniha analyzuje spor z hlediska toho, jak se v něm zachází s nejistotou a rizikem, a argumentuje pro posun z perspektivy založené na riziku směrem k perspektivě založené na nejistotě, jež by mohla pomoci spor odblokovat.