Tango With The Gringo The Hard Peg And Real Misalignment In Argentina
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Tango With The Gringo The Hard Peg And Real Misalignment In Argentina
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Author : Enrique Alberola
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2013
Tango With The Gringo The Hard Peg And Real Misalignment In Argentina written by Enrique Alberola and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Between 1990 and 2001 the Argentine peso appreciated by 80 percent in real terms, and its overvaluation has been singled out as one of the main suspects in the debate on the causes of the Argentina collapse of late 2001. This paper assesses the degree of real misalignment in Argentina over the Convertibility period using a model in which the equilibrium real exchange rate is defined as the value consistent with (i) a balance of payments position where any current account imbalance is financed by a sustainable flow of international capital (external equilibrium), and (ii) traded/nontraded sector productivity differentials (internal equilibrium). Empirical implementation of the model suggests that the initial real appreciation of the peso, between 1990 and 1993, was consistent with the productivity increases that Argentina enjoyed following the stabilization of the economy after the hyperinflation of the late 1980s. But after 1996 a widening gap opened between the observed real exchange rate and that consistent with a sustainable net foreign asset position. Our estimates indicate that in 2001 the peso was overvalued by over 50 percent. The model allows us to assess how much of the overvaluation resulted from Argentina's inadequate choice of anchor currency and how much from a divergence of fundamentals between the U.S. and Argentina, ultimately due to the maintenance of policies inconsistent with the peg. We find that both factors played a role in the overvaluation accumulated between 1977 and 2001 that preceded the collapse of the Convertibility regime.
Managing Economic Volatility And Crises
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Author : Joshua Aizenman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2005-10-03
Managing Economic Volatility And Crises written by Joshua Aizenman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic volatility has come into its own after being treated for decades as a secondary phenomenon in the business cycle literature. This evolution has been driven by the recognition that non-linearities, long buried by the economist's penchant for linearity, magnify the negative effects of volatility on long-run growth and inequality, especially in poor countries. This collection organizes empirical and policy results for economists and development policy practitioners into four parts: basic features, including the impact of volatility on growth and poverty; commodity price volatility; the financial sector's dual role as an absorber and amplifier of shocks; and the management and prevention of macroeconomic crises. The latter section includes a cross-country study, case studies on Argentina and Russia, and lessons from the debt default episodes of the 1980s and 1990s.
Restoring Economic Growth In Argentina
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Author : William R. Cline
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2003
Restoring Economic Growth In Argentina written by William R. Cline and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Argentina categories.
The author reviews the debate on the causes of Argentina's economic collapse in late 2001 and 2002 and examines the measures needed to help restore sustainable growth. Some analysts stress fiscal imbalances, others overvaluation of the peso under the convertibility plan, and others external shocks. Cline judges that all three contributed substantially, but that it was their inflammatory interaction with domestic political unraveling that forced the bad-equilibrium outcome. He reviews the nascent recovery since the second half of 2002 and the important success of avoiding hyperinflation. Looking forward, the author's analysis underscores the importance of strengthening fiscal performance, in part by increasing relatively low collections of value added taxes. He stresses the need for reform of the system of revenue sharing with the provinces; the importance of strengthening the banking system, which was severely weakened by asymmetric conversion of assets and liabilities from dollars to pesos; and the need to arrive at equitable restructuring of utility tariffs to reestablish confidence of foreign direct investors in the rules of the game. Restructuring government debt is also central to restoring growth. A simple model indicates that a relatively ambitious target for the primary fiscal surplus and a restricted set of senior-status debt will be needed to limit the haircut on junior debt to amounts compatible with longer-term creditor perceptions of fairness. The author also considers the new dynamics of bargaining with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He judges that although conditionality is arguably appropriately less stringent as only rollover is involved, and despite the large outstanding debt to the IMF, there are limits to how lenient the Fund can and should be in key areas with potential for setting international precedents.
Ten Crises
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Author : Peter Montiel
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-12-17
Ten Crises written by Peter Montiel and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial crises are dramatic events. When they emerge, they tend to dominate the attention of the press and become the focus of policymakers. In one form or another, they have affected the lives of millions of people throughout the world. As references to 16th century Dutch tulips, 18th South Seas merchant ventures, or 1920s Florida real estate make clear, they have been around for a long time. At their worst, such as in the cases of the Great Depression or the current Great Recession, their effects have been felt worldwide, with the number of people affected counted into the billions. They have at times changed the course of history. This book analyses ten of the most important financial crises of the last thirty years. The specific crises covered in the book are the 1982 Chilean crisis, the 1992 ERM crisis, the 1994 Mexican crisis, the 1997 Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis, the 1999 Brazilian crisis, the 1999 Ecuadorian crisis, the 2000 Turkish crisis, the 2002 Argentine crisis, and the 2008 crisis in Iceland. The set includes the most important emerging-market crises of the last three decades as well as two particularly informative advanced-country crises, the ERM crisis of 1992 and the Icelandic crisis of 2008. A separate chapter is devoted to each crisis, and a brief concluding chapter sums up some of the key lessons that I believe that we can draw from these events.
The Anatomy Of A Multiple Crisis
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Author : Guillermo Perry
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2003
The Anatomy Of A Multiple Crisis written by Guillermo Perry and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Argentina categories.
The Argentine crisis has been variously blamed on fiscal imbalances, real overvaluation, and self-fulfilling investor pessimism triggering a capital flow reversal. The authors provide an encompassing assessment of the role of these and other ingredients in the recent macroeconomic collapse. They show that in the final years of convertibility, Argentina was not hit harder than other emerging markets in Latin America and elsewhere by global terms-of-trade and financial disturbances. So the crisis reflects primarily the high vulnerability to disturbances built into Argentina's policy framework. Three key sources of vulnerability are examined: the hard peg adopted against optimal currency area considerations in a context of wage and price inflexibility; the fragile fiscal position resulting from an expansionary stance in the boom; and the pervasive mismatches in the portfolios of banks' borrowers. While there were important vulnerabilities in each of these areas, neither of them was higher than those affecting other countries in the region, and thus there is not one obvious suspect. But the three reinforced each other in such a perverse way that taken jointly they led to a much larger vulnerability to adverse external shocks than in any other country in the region. Underlying these vulnerabilities was a deep structural problem of the Argentine economy that led to harsh policy dilemmas before and after the crisis erupted. On the one hand, the Argentine trade structure made a peg to the dollar highly inconvenient from the point of view of the real economy. On the other hand, the strong preference of Argentinians for the dollar as a store of value-after the hyperinflation and confiscation experiences of the 1980s-had led to a highly dollarized economy in which a hard peg or even full dollarization seemed reasonable alternatives from a financial point of view.
Monetary Unions And Hard Pegs
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Author : Volbert Alexander
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2004-03-25
Monetary Unions And Hard Pegs written by Volbert Alexander and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-03-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial services with global reach are becoming ever more important in the conduct and organization of the trade and investment of nations, and currencies that lack international standing lose out in this business. The result of financial development has been destabilizing currency and portfolio substitution — in favour of international currencies and against local ones. This book analyses formal approaches to overcoming monetary divisions within countries and within integrating regions, focusing on the consequences of monetary union for trade among union members and their financial development and stability. The authors discuss hard pegs such as those attempted by the currency board of Argentina, outright dollarization, such as in Ecuador, and multilateral monetary union, as in Europe, the least reversible form of monetary union and the most powerful elixir of financial integration and trade. The political classes and central banks in most countries have been reluctant to admit the market- and technology-driven forces of currency consolidation, much less yield to them. International financial institutions too are still in the habit of proffering advice about national monetary and exchange-rate policies on the assumption that getting rid of both is not even an option. Emerging-market countries, in particular, have to choose between retaining what independent monetary means they still have — and can safely use in the presence of widespread liability dollarization and currency mismatches — and formally replacing the domestic with an international currency to reduce exposure to debilitating financial crises. In concrete investigations of this choice, this volume shows that monetary union deserves a much more sympathetic hearing.
Financial Crises 1929 To The Present
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Author : Sara Hsu
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2013-01-01
Financial Crises 1929 To The Present written by Sara Hsu and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
ÔSara Hsu has written a useful survey of the accelerating pace of financial crises in our time, and a good review of the steps taken, with uncertain effect, to prevent another one. Highly recommended for all who were not paying attention, or who may enjoy the economist's refined capacity to forget.Õ Ð James K. Galbraith, The University of Texas at Austin, US This fascinating volume offers a comprehensive synthesis of the events, causes and outcomes of the major financial crises from 1929 to the present day. Beginning with an overview of the global financial system, Sara Hsu presents both theoretical and empirical evidence to explain the roots of financial crises in general. She then provides a thorough breakdown of a number of major crises of the past century, both in the United States and around the world. The bookÕs discussion of specific crises begins with the Great Depression of 1929, which was the first crisis created within the institutions of our current financial system. The author continues with explorations of the aftermath of the Depression in the 1930s and 1940s, the inter-crisis period of the 1950s through the 1970s, and the emerging market debt default crisis of the 1980s. From there she tackles major crises in specific countries from the 1990s on, including those in Mexico, Asia (including Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia), Russia, Brazil and Argentina, as well as the Great Recession of 2008. The book concludes with a chapter detailing insightful policy recommendations for preventing future crises. Students and professors of economic history, financial and regulatory economics and banking will find this an invaluable resource, both for its comprehensive historical approach and its thoughtful look toward the future of the global economy.
Exchange Rates Capital Flows And Policy
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Author : Rebecca Driver
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-04-15
Exchange Rates Capital Flows And Policy written by Rebecca Driver and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Combining thorough scholarship with illuminating real-world examples, this edited collection provides insights on the causes and consequences of movements in both exchange rates and external assets and has a strong focus on the policy implications of operating in an open economy, particularly the choice of exchange rate and monetary policy, exchange rate intervention and policies on capital mobility.
Die Argentinische Tangokrise 2001 2002
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Author : Dennis Schratz
language : de
Publisher: Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
Release Date : 2008
Die Argentinische Tangokrise 2001 2002 written by Dennis Schratz and has been published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
Anfang Dezember 2001 zahlte der Internationale Wahrungsfonds eine vereinbarte Kredittranche an Argentinien nicht mehr aus, da Argentinien seiner Meinung nach die Konditionalitat eines Null-Defizits fur das Jahr nicht mehr erreichen konnte. Daraufhin folgten bank-runs, die von der argentinischen Regierung mit einem Einfrieren der Konten gestoppt wurden. Die soziale Situation verbunden mit dem Unmut des Volkes gegen samtliche Politiker aber vor allem gegen die Regierung fuhrte zu Demonstrationen und Unruhen, die von Buenos Aires aus auf das ganze Land ubergriffen. Lautstarke Proteste der auf Topfe und Pfannen schlagenden Bevolkerung zwangen erst den Wirtschaftsminister und dann auch den Prasidenten zum Rucktritt. Trittbrettfahrer des ansonsten friedlichen Burgerprotestes verursachten mit Brandanschlagen und Plunderungen ein Chaos. Durch diesen kurzen Ausnahmezustand kamen aufgrund von Auseinandersetzungen mit Polizei und Ladenbesitzern uber 20 Menschen ums Leben. Politisch war wegen dieser Geschehnisse ebenso ein Ausnahmezustand zu beobachten. Innerhalb von nur zwei Wochen hatte Argentinien funf Prasidenten. Jegliche Schuldenzahlung des Staates wurde eingestellt und somit der grosste Zahlungsausfall, den es je auf der Welt gegeben hat, verkundet. Diese Krise war das Ende eines wirtschaftspolitischen Konzepts, das eine Dekade lang die argentinische Politik bestimmte und unter dem Namen "Plan Cavallo" in die Geschichte einging. Im Zentrum dieses Massnahmenpaketes, dass anfangs auch viele Erfolge verzeichnete, stand ein Currency Board-System mit einem festen Wechselkurs der argentinischen Wahrung zum US-Dollar. In dieser Arbeit beschaftigt sich der Autor mit den Ursachen dieser Wirtschafts-, Wahrungs- und Finanzkrise. Dafur wurden historische, politikwissenschaftliche und wirtschaftstheoretische Erkenntnisse zusammengefuhrt, um eine realistische Einschatzung des Geschehens zu entwickeln. Gemessen am Pro-Kopf-Einkommen war Argentinien zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts eines der reichsten Lander der Welt. Im Zuge der Tangokrise 2001/2002 stuften internationale Ratingagenturen Argentinien als den zweitarmsten Staat ein. Um zu klaren, wie sich die Wirtschaftssituation innerhalb eines Jahrhunderts so rapide verschlechtern konnte, ist eine wirtschaftshistorische Betrachtung der polit-okonomischen Entwicklung vorgenommen worden. Daraufhin wurden die Ursachen der Tangokrise analysiert. Abschliessend wurde die polit-okonomische Entwicklung bis zum Jahreswechsel 2005/ 2006 analysiert und im Anschluss daran Optionen zur zukunftigen Wahrungspolitik Argentiniens gepruft.
A Policy Note On Telecommunications Reform In Algeria
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Author : Paul Noumba Um
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
A Policy Note On Telecommunications Reform In Algeria written by Paul Noumba Um and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Telecommunication categories.