The China Shock
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On The Persistence Of The China Shock
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Author : David H. Autor
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
On The Persistence Of The China Shock written by David H. Autor and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with China categories.
Abstract We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55% of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86% of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively--but not quantitatively--similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.
On The Persistence Of The China Shock
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Author : David Autor
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
On The Persistence Of The China Shock written by David Autor and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
Abstract We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55% of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86% of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively--but not quantitatively--similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.
The China Shock
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
The China Shock written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
China Shock
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Author : Michael Anthony
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2015-11-15
China Shock written by Michael Anthony and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-15 with categories.
China is on the way to becoming a global superpower, and the Chinese are bulldozing their way all over our planet. It's high time that the rest of the world knew more about this colossus. In this book, you'll discover: How the Chinese are not just different but also very peculiar in so many aspects like beliefs and personality. How China has been undergoing a major internal transformation, including a sex revolution. How the Communist Party of China maintains total control of the country. How China has carried out the biggest heist of Western intellectual property, and crippled the US economy. How China's leaders are using The Art of War to defeat America, and conquer the world. The book is very informative, full of vivid illustrations, and the result of years of research by an author who lived in China, speaks Chinese, and is very familiar with the intricacies of modern China.
How China Escaped Shock Therapy
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Author : Isabella M. Weber
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2021-05-26
How China Escaped Shock Therapy written by Isabella M. Weber and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-26 with Business & Economics categories.
China has become deeply integrated into the world economy. Yet, gradual marketization has facilitated the country’s rise without leading to its wholesale assimilation to global neoliberalism. This book uncovers the fierce contest about economic reforms that shaped China’s path. In the first post-Mao decade, China’s reformers were sharply divided. They agreed that China had to reform its economic system and move toward more marketization—but struggled over how to go about it. Should China destroy the core of the socialist system through shock therapy, or should it use the institutions of the planned economy as market creators? With hindsight, the historical record proves the high stakes behind the question: China embarked on an economic expansion commonly described as unprecedented in scope and pace, whereas Russia’s economy collapsed under shock therapy. Based on extensive research, including interviews with key Chinese and international participants and World Bank officials as well as insights gleaned from unpublished documents, the book charts the debate that ultimately enabled China to follow a path to gradual reindustrialization. Beyond shedding light on the crossroads of the 1980s, it reveals the intellectual foundations of state-market relations in reform-era China through a longue durée lens. Overall, the book delivers an original perspective on China’s economic model and its continuing contestations from within and from without.
Did U S Politicians Expect The China Shock
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Author : Matilde Bombardini
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Did U S Politicians Expect The China Shock written by Matilde Bombardini and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with China categories.
In the two decades straddling China's WTO accession, the China Shock, i.e. the rapid trade integration of China in the early 2000's, has had a profound economic impact across U.S. regions. It is now both an internationally litigated issue and the casus belli for a global trade war. Were its consequences unexpected? Did U.S. politicians have imperfect information about the extent of China Shock's repercussions in their district at the time when they voted on China's Normal Trade Relations status? Or did they have accurate expectations, yet placed a relatively low weight on the subconstituencies that ended up being adversely affected? Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. We apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver unbiased estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about the expectations of politicians at the time of their vote. Employing repeated roll call votes in the U.S. House of Representatives on China's Normal Trade Relations status, we formally test what information politicians had at the time of their decision and consistently estimate the weights that constituent interests, ideology, and other factors had in congressional votes. We show how assuming perfect foresight of the shocks biases the role of constituent interests and how standard proxies to modeling politician's expectations bias the estimation. We cannot reject that politicians could predict the initial China Shock in the early 1990's, but not around 2000, when China started entering new sectors, and find a moderate role of constituent interests, compared to ideology. Overall, U.S. legislators appear to have had accurate information on the China Shock, but did not place substantial weight on its adverse consequences.
The China Shock Revisited Insights From Value Added Trade Flows
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Author : Adam Jakubik
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
The China Shock Revisited Insights From Value Added Trade Flows written by Adam Jakubik and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
We exploit a decomposition of gross trade flows into their value added components to reassess the relationship between increased imports from China and manufacturing jobs in US local labour markets following the seminal paper of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013, ADH). Decomposed trade flows enable us to address identification and measurement issues inherent to gross trade data. In particular, it allows us to remove US value added in Chinese exports from the exposure measure which is mechanically correlated with the dependent variable and overstates the volume of the trade shock. In addition, the decomposition permits to correct for double counting, to remove primary and services inputs in manufacturing exports, and to assign competition to the upstream industry that supplied the value added rather than the final exporting industry. This further reduces the volume of the shock and improves the accuracy of the import exposure measure. Consequently, we find considerable differences in the pattern of regions that are most affected by the trade shock and show that imports from China can explain less of the decline in US manufacturing than what gross trade data would suggest. We then separate the shock into a China-driven domestic reform and a thirdcountry- driven value chain component, and find in line with ADH that the smaller, but still negative labour market effects are indeed China driven. Finally, we observe that the negative effects identified in ADH are not present in the 2008-2014 period, as labour market adjustment has largely concluded. The long time needed for adjustment may have been prolonged by the evolution of China's comparative advantage.
The China Shock Employment Protection And European Jobs
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Author : Hedieh Aghelmaleki
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The China Shock Employment Protection And European Jobs written by Hedieh Aghelmaleki and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Magnification Of The China Shock Through The U S Housing Market
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Author : Yuan Xu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Magnification Of The China Shock Through The U S Housing Market written by Yuan Xu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Exports categories.
The "China shock' operated in part through the housing market, and that is an important reason why the China shock was as big as it was. If housing prices had not responded at all to the China shock, then the total employment effect of the China shock would have been reduced by more than one-half. Housing prices in the United States did respond to the China shock, however, so the independent employment effect of the China shock is reduced by about 20--30%, with that remainder reflecting exogenous changes in housing prices.
Racial And Ethnic Inequality And The China Shock
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Author : Lisa B. Kahn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Racial And Ethnic Inequality And The China Shock written by Lisa B. Kahn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
We examine how the labor market effects of import competition vary across Black, Hispanic, and white populations. For a given level of exposure to imports from China, we find no evidence that minority workers are relatively more harmed than white workers in terms of their manufacturing employment. However, Hispanic workers are overrepresented in exposed industries and therefore face greater manufacturing employment losses relative to whites on net. In addition, they experienced relative losses in non-manufacturing employment, largely due to their lower educational attainment and baseline industry mix. Overall, the China shock increased the Hispanic-white employment gap by about 5%, though these effects were short lived. In contrast, Black workers are less likely to live in areas or work in industries facing import competition, resulting in less negative effects on manufacturing employment relative to whites. In addition, exposed Black workers experienced gains in non-manufacturing and overall employment with no measurable wage consequences, while white workers saw depressed employment rates due to the China shock. The lasting effects of import competition in exposed areas were driven by white workers, while the experience of Black workers suggests that movement into non-manufacturing jobs was possible. White workers did not take advantage of these opportunities, perhaps due to better safety nets or perceptions that the available jobs were poor substitutes for those lost in manufacturing. The China shock narrowed the Black-white employment gap by about 15%. While many recent labor market trends have exacerbated Black-white gaps, import competition is a modest offsetting force.
