The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments
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The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments
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Author : C.-A. Staël von Holstein
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments written by C.-A. Staël von Holstein and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.
1. BACKGROUND The last twenty-five years have seen a large amount of psychological research in the area of behavioral decision theory. It followed the major breakthrough of decision theory that came with von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944. The key concepts are probability as a measure of uncertainty and utility as a measure of value and risk. The theory prescribes, given some behavioral axioms, that alternatives should be ranked in accordance with their expected utilities. Psychologists became interested in studying how people's decision behavior agreed with what was prescribed by the theory. Three broad areas for research developed, i. e. , research relating to each of the two concepts of probability and utility, and research relating to the interaction of the two in decision stituations. The papers in this book have been selected to illustrate various aspects of how the concept of probability has been used in psychological ex perimentation. The early experiments were generated, as mentioned above, by an interest among psychologists to see how people evaluate uncertainty and quantify it in probabilistic terms. Many of these experiments set out to evaluate subjects' estimates of relative frequencies; these were situations where one had access to 'objective' answers. In the 1960's psychologists changed the focus of their studies to how people revise probabilistic judgments when they receive new information. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the cognitive processes by which people express their judgment in probabilistic terms.
The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments
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Author : C -A Stael Von Holstein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1974-12-31
The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments written by C -A Stael Von Holstein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1974-12-31 with categories.
Probability In Theory Building
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: BRILL
Release Date : 2023-03-13
Probability In Theory Building written by and has been published by BRILL this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-13 with Philosophy categories.
Probability And Statistics In Psychological Research And Theory
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Author : Donald Wyman Stilson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1966
Probability And Statistics In Psychological Research And Theory written by Donald Wyman Stilson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1966 with Psychology categories.
Cognition And Chance
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Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2004-06-24
Cognition And Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
The Probabilistic Mind
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Author : Nick Chater
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2008
The Probabilistic Mind written by Nick Chater and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Philosophy categories.
The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited Rational Models of Cognition (OUP, 1998). It brings together developmetns in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods.
Probability And Statistics
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Author : Donald W. Stilson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1971
Probability And Statistics written by Donald W. Stilson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1971 with categories.
Bayesian Rationality
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Author : Mike Oaksford
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2007-02-22
Bayesian Rationality written by Mike Oaksford and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-02-22 with Philosophy categories.
For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.
Hypothesis Testing Behaviour
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Author : Fenna H. Poletiek
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2013-05-13
Hypothesis Testing Behaviour written by Fenna H. Poletiek and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-13 with Psychology categories.
How do people search evidence for a hypothesis? A well documented answer in cognitive psychology is that they search for confirming evidence. However, the rational strategy is to try to falsify the hypothesis. This book critically evaluates this contradiction. Experimental research is discussed against the background of philosophical and formal theories of hypothesis testing with striking results: Falsificationism and verificationism - the two main rival philosophies of testing - come down to one and the same principle for concrete testing behaviour, eluding the contrast between rational falsification and confirmation bias. In this book, the author proposes a new perspective for describing hypothesis testing behaviour - the probability-value model - which unifies the contrasting views. According to this model, hypothesis testers pragmatically consider what evidence and how much evidence will convince them to reject or accept the hypothesis. They might either require highly probative evidence for its acceptance, at the risk of its rejection, or protect it against rejection and go for minor confirming observations. Interestingly, the model refines the classical opposition between rationality and pragmaticity because pragmatic considerations are a legitimate aspect of 'rational' hypothesis testing. Possible future research and applications of the ideas advanced are discussed, such as the modelling of expert hypothesis testing.
Subjective Probability
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Author : George Wright
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994-11
Subjective Probability written by George Wright and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.