The Conjunction Fallacy
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A Model Of The Conjunction Fallacy
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Author : Hillel J. Einhorn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1985
A Model Of The Conjunction Fallacy written by Hillel J. Einhorn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985 with Probabilities categories.
Tversky & Kahneman show that both sophisticated and naive people, in many different substantive problems, often judge the conjunction of events to be larger than one of its components (hereafter called a single violation). Furthermore, for some problems, people judge the conjunction as larger than both of its components (a double violation). The purpose of this document is to propose a quantitative model of how people judge the probability of conjunctive events. The advantage of the model is that it makes specific predictions as to when conjunction fallacies of different types will or will not occur. Moreover, the model is naturally extended to deal with conjunctive explanations for events. The conjunction fallacy occurs when the judged probability of a conjunctive event is larger than the probability of one (or more) of its constituents. A model of this phenomenon is proposed in which the judged conjunctive probability is a weighted geometric average of the component probabilities, where the weights reflect the representativeness of the components. The model generalizes to the case where the events involve a casual or correlational link, and, to the use of conjunctive explanations of an event. In all three situations, the model specifies the conditions under which different degrees of the fallacy will or will not occur.
The Conjunction Fallacy Again
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
The Conjunction Fallacy Again written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with categories.
Conjunction Fallacy
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Author : Leona Dotterweich
language : de
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2011-02-10
Conjunction Fallacy written by Leona Dotterweich and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-10 with Psychology categories.
Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2007 im Fachbereich Psychologie - Kognitive Psychologie, Note: 2,0, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg (Psychologisches Institut), Veranstaltung: Seminar: Kognitive Täuschungen, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Die nachfolgende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der conjunction fallacy, einer kognitiven Täuschung, bei der die probability rule- P(A&B)
The Conjunction Fallacy
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Author : Hans Wolfgang Brachinger
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
The Conjunction Fallacy written by Hans Wolfgang Brachinger and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with categories.
On The Conjunction Fallacy In Probability Judgment
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Author : Gary Charness
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
On The Conjunction Fallacy In Probability Judgment written by Gary Charness and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Linda Is Back
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Author : Rodrigo Moro
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Linda Is Back written by Rodrigo Moro and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Fallacies (Logic) categories.
External Versus Intuitive Reasoning The Conjunction Fallacy In Probability Judgment
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Author : Amos Tversky
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1983
External Versus Intuitive Reasoning The Conjunction Fallacy In Probability Judgment written by Amos Tversky and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with categories.
Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: the probability of a conjunction P (A & B) cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of its constituents. Judgments under uncertainty, however, are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule. A conjunction can be more representative than one of its constituents and instances of a specific category can be easier to imagine or retrieve than instances of a more inclusive category. The representativeness and availability heuristics therefore can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. This phenomenon is demonstrated in a variety of contexts including estimation of word frequency, personality judgment, medical prognosis, decision under risk, suspicion of criminal acts and political forecasting. Systematic violations of the conjunction rule are observed in judgments of lay people and of experts in both between-subjects and within-subjects comparisons.
Walter The Banker
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Author : Stephan Hartmann
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Walter The Banker written by Stephan Hartmann and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
In a famous experiment by Tversky and Kahneman (1983), featuring Linda the bank teller, the participants assign a higher probability to a conjunction of propositions than to one of the conjuncts, thereby seemingly committing a probabilistic fallacy. In this paper, we discuss a slightly different example featuring someone named Walter, who also happens to work at a bank, and argue that, in this example, it is rational to assign a higher probability to the conjunction of suitably chosen propositions than to one of the conjuncts. By pointing out the similarities between Tversky and Kahneman's experiment and our example, we argue that the participants in the experiment may assign probabilities to the propositions in question in such a way that it is also rational for them to give the conjunction a higher probability than one of the conjuncts.
A Violation Of The Monotonicity Axiom
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Author : Edmund Fantino
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
A Violation Of The Monotonicity Axiom written by Edmund Fantino and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with categories.
The conjunction fallacy is an anomaly in human reasoning for which the conjunction of two events is rated more likely to occur than one of the events alone. In the context of decision under uncertainty, this violates the monotonicity axiom of probability, and consequentially also Bayes' Rule and the monotonicity axiom of preferences. Our experiments show how dynamic feedback and monetary incentives affect the fallacy rate, and how the complexity (and possibly the presentation) of the decision problem and an averaging heuristic might determine outcomes and reasoning. Keyword(s): Monotonicity axiom; Conjunction fallacy; Learning; Bounded rationality.
The Conjunction Fallacy In Clinical Judgment
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Author : William L. Stearns
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
The Conjunction Fallacy In Clinical Judgment written by William L. Stearns and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Clinical psychology categories.