The Decline Effect

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The Decline Effect

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Author : Dean Brooks
language : en
Publisher: FriesenPress
Release Date : 2023-01-31

The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and has been published by FriesenPress this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-31 with Mathematics categories.

A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.

Education Social Background And Cognitive Ability

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Author : Gary N. Marks
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-10-23

Education Social Background And Cognitive Ability written by Gary N. Marks and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-23 with Education categories.

Are socioeconomic inequalities in education declining? Is socioeconomic background becoming less important for people’s occupational class or status? How important is cognitive ability for education and later occupational outcomes? How do countries differ in the importance of socioeconomic background for education and work? Gary N. Marks argues that in western industrialized countries, pervasive views that socioeconomic background (or class background) has strong and unchanging relationships with education and later socioeconomic outcomes, resistant to policy and social change, are unfounded. Marks provides a large amount of evidence from many countries showing that the influence of socioeconomic background for education is moderate and most often declining, and socioeconomic background has only very weak impacts on adults’ occupation and earnings after taking into account education and cognitive ability. Furthermore, Marks shows that cognitive ability is a more powerful influence than socioeconomic background for educational outcomes, and that in addition to its indirect effects through education has a direct effect on occupation and earnings. Its effects cannot be dismissed as simply another aspect of socioeconomic background, nor do the usual criticisms of ‘cognitive ability’ apply. The declining effects for socioeconomic background and the importance of cognitive ability support several of the contentions of modernization theory. The book contributes to a variety of debates within sociology: quantitative and qualitative approaches, explanatory and non-explanatory theory, the relationship between theory and empirical research, the role of political ideology in research, sociology as a social science, and sociology’s contribution to knowledge about contemporary societies. It will appeal to professionals in the fields of education and sociology as well as postgraduate students and academics involved in the debate.

The Great Depression Revisited

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Author : H. van der Wee
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

The Great Depression Revisited written by H. van der Wee and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

For a quarter of a century the industrial Western world has been living in the euphoria of continuous improvements in welfare, based on economic programming, increasing integration and terms of trade which favor indus trial countries and discriminate against agricultural regions. It is true that recessions have periodically recurred during these years : time and again, however, government intervention succeeded in reducing them to mere "in ventory cycles". In contrast with the twenties and thirties, when economic policy in the West focused on fighting unemployment and stimulating investment, the postwar period has been characterized by a permanent concern to curb inflationary pressure, which was partly due to full-employ ment. The present welfare economy has given rise to a growth of the pro pensity to consume such that public policy has often been constrained to limit consumption and stimulate saving. In this new framework it has perhaps been forgotten that today's welfare owes much to the lessons from the past. The bitter world crisis experience of the thirties in particular has exerted a fruitful and decisive influence upon the search for means to prevent, eliminate or soften the cyclical fluctuations which the process of economic growth involves. Forty years after the out break of the greatest economic crisis ever, it seems useful to draw up the balancesheet of the lessons learned from it. There exists a large literature about the depression of the thirties.

Psychological Science Under Scrutiny

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Author : Scott O. Lilienfeld
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2017-01-03

Psychological Science Under Scrutiny written by Scott O. Lilienfeld and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-03 with Psychology categories.

Psychological Science Under Scrutiny explores a range of contemporary challenges to the assumptions and methodologies of psychology, in order to encourage debate and ground the discipline in solid science. Discusses the pointed challenges posed by critics to the field of psychological research, which have given pause to psychological researchers across a broad spectrum of sub-fields Argues that those conducting psychological research need to fundamentally change the way they think about data and results, in order to ensure that psychology has a firm basis in empirical science Places the recent challenges discussed into a broad historical and conceptual perspective, and considers their implications for the future of psychological methodology and research Challenges discussed include confirmation bias, the effects of grant pressure, false-positive findings, overestimating the efficacy of medications, and high correlations in functional brain imaging Chapters are authored by internationally recognized experts in their fields, and are written with a minimum of specialized terminology to ensure accessibility to students and lay readers

Advances In Parapsychological Research

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Author : Stanley Krippner
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-08

Advances In Parapsychological Research written by Stanley Krippner and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-08 with Psychology categories.

Montague Ullman The second volume of this series includes essays on methods and issues in ESP research (Morris), research findings in ESP (Palmer), and theories of psi (Rao). It thus complements the areas covered in Volume 1, the two volumes taken together providing the reader with a sound grounding in the progress and achievements of parapsychological research from its inception to the present day. What is immediately striking is the rapid increase in the amount and variety of experimental reports appearing in the last decade and the increasing number of centers in which research is being carried out. Work in parapsychology is moving toward a broader disciplinary base, the use of more imaginative technology, greater academic support, and more activity on an international scale. These are promising signs of a rapprochement between parapsychological research and the mainstream of science. Robert O. Becker, in his preface to Volume 1, holds out the hope that parapsychology will lead the way to a new view of the biological or ganism, one going beyond mechanism to "a new vision of the human being and his place in the universe" (Becker, 1977). Heavy as this respon sibility may be, a careful reading of the present volume should persuade the reader that a new view is very much in order.

Parapsychology

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Author : Etzel Cardeña
language : en
Publisher: McFarland
Release Date : 2015-07-25

Parapsychology written by Etzel Cardeña and has been published by McFarland this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-25 with Body, Mind & Spirit categories.

Many people have experienced such unusual phenomena as dreams that later seem to correspond with unforeseeable events, thinking of a long-lost friend just before he or she unexpectedly calls, or the ability to "feel" the presence of deceased loved ones. What many do not realize is that these types of experiences have been researched for more than a century by eminent scientists, including Nobel laureates. Most of these researchers have concluded that some of these phenomena do occur, although we are far from explaining them to everyone's satisfaction. This book is the first in almost 40 years to provide a comprehensive scientific overview of research in the field of parapsychology, explaining what we know and don't know about so-called psi phenomena, such as "telepathy," "precognition" or "psychokinesis." Contributors evaluate the evidence for these phenomena, accounting for factors such as selective memory, wish fulfillment and incorrect methods or analyses, in some cases offering psychological, physical and biological theories. Instructors considering this book for use in a course may request an examination copy here.

General Summary Of Effects Of The Drought In The Southwest

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Author : Harold Edgar Thomas
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1963

General Summary Of Effects Of The Drought In The Southwest written by Harold Edgar Thomas and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1963 with Droughts categories.

Reflecting On Our Changing Climate From Fear To Facts

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Author : Constantin Cranganu
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Release Date : 2024-03-07

Reflecting On Our Changing Climate From Fear To Facts written by Constantin Cranganu and has been published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-07 with Science categories.

This book contains reflections about climate change - an intrinsic reality of our planet’s history over the past 4.6 billion years – including both natural and anthropogenic variations. More recently, the phrase “climate change” has become a euphemism for “carbon dioxide emissions”. While focusing on CO2 emissions is crucial for understanding climate change, solely using this term in scientific discussions may lead to overlooking other complex factors contributing, among other things, to extreme weather events, potentially affecting the quality of evidence analysis. The shift towards using “climate change” interchangeably with “carbon dioxide emissions” within scientific circles, while highlighting a key driver, necessitates ensuring comprehensive discussions that encompass the diverse evidence related to all climate sub-systems. Therefore, using the phrase like a changing climate opens a bigger umbrella that facilitates covering multiple and complex climate manifestations. The book will be useful to students, researchers and policy makers working and studying in the vast and often contentious landscape of climate change debates.

Working And Poor

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Author : Rebecca M. Blank
language : en
Publisher: Russell Sage Foundation
Release Date : 2007-01-09

Working And Poor written by Rebecca M. Blank and has been published by Russell Sage Foundation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-01-09 with Business & Economics categories.

Over the last three decades, large-scale economic developments, such as technological change, the decline in unionization, and changing skill requirements, have exacted their biggest toll on low-wage workers. These workers often possess few marketable skills and few resources with which to support themselves during periods of economic transition. In Working and Poor, a distinguished group of economists and policy experts, headlined by editors Rebecca Blank, Sheldon Danziger, and Robert Schoeni, examine how economic and policy changes over the last twenty-five years have affected the well-being of low-wage workers and their families. Working and Poor examines every facet of the economic well-being of less-skilled workers, from employment and earnings opportunities to consumption behavior and social assistance policies. Rebecca Blank and Heidi Schierholz document the different trends in work and wages among less-skilled women and men. Between 1979 and 2003, labor force participation rose rapidly for these women, along with more modest increases in wages, while among the men both employment and wages fell. David Card and John DiNardo review the evidence on how technological changes have affected less-skilled workers and conclude that the effect has been smaller than many observers claim. Philip Levine examines the effectiveness of the Unemployment Insurance program during recessions. He finds that the program's eligibility rules, which deny benefits to workers who have not met minimum earnings requirements, exclude the very people who require help most and should be adjusted to provide for those with the highest need. On the other hand, Therese J. McGuire and David F. Merriman show that government help remains a valuable source of support during economic downturns. They find that during the most recent recession in 2001, when state budgets were stretched thin, legislatures resisted political pressure to cut spending for the poor. Working and Poor provides a valuable analysis of the role that public policy changes can play in improving the plight of the working poor. A comprehensive analysis of trends over the last twenty-five years, this book provides an invaluable reference for the public discussion of work and poverty in America. A Volume in the National Poverty Center Series on Poverty and Public Policy

Explanations For The Decline In Child Sexual Abuse Cases

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Author : David Finkelhor
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004

Explanations For The Decline In Child Sexual Abuse Cases written by David Finkelhor and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Child sexual abuse categories.