The Dynamic Effect Of Social And Political Instability On Output

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The Dynamic Effect Of Social And Political Instability On Output
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Author : Mr.Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-04-23
The Dynamic Effect Of Social And Political Instability On Output written by Mr.Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the magnitude of the effect being a function of the intensity of political instability. The results also show that the recovery of output over the medium-term depends on the ability of the country to implement, in the aftermath of a social instability episode, reforms aimed at improving the level of governance. The results are robust to different checks and estimation strategies.
Imf Research Bulletin June 2013
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Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-06-20
Imf Research Bulletin June 2013 written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The June issue of the IMF Research Bulletin looks at the role of IMF programs and capacity building in fostering structural reforms and the economics of Arab countries undergoing political transitions. The Q&A analyzes the neutral interest rate through the experiences of several Latin American countries. The Research Bulletin also includes its regular features: a listing of IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, information on the forthcoming IMF Economic Review and the Fourteenth Jacques Polack Annual Research Conference, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.
West African Economic And Monetary Union Waemu
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Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-03-21
West African Economic And Monetary Union Waemu written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-03-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) IMF staff report focuses on common policies for member countries. The region continued to experience a strong upswing in 2013, and the immediate outlook is for further vigorous growth and moderate inflation. Delays in implementing reforms, at both the national and regional levels, are the principal medium-term risk. It highlights that with continued strong growth projected for the region, countries are encouraged to seek opportunities to strengthen fiscal sustainability while maintaining public investment efforts.
Building Integrated Economies In West Africa
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Author : Mr.Alexei Kireyev
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-13
Building Integrated Economies In West Africa written by Mr.Alexei Kireyev and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has a long and varied history, and this book examines how the WAEMU can achieve its development and stability objectives, improve the livelihood of its people, and enhance the inclusiveness of its economic growth, all while preserving its financial stability, enhancing its competitiveness, and maintaining its current fixed exchange rates.
Guinea Bissau
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Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-07-03
Guinea Bissau written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The staff report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation on Guinea-Bissau highlights the economic development and policies. Guinea-Bissau’s medium-term challenges are to diversify its economy, reduce widespread poverty, and generate employment opportunities. Recurrent internal conflicts have negatively affected economic growth, poverty reduction, and social advancement in Guinea-Bissau. The economic performance will depend critically on establishing a visibly inclusive political process while moving toward demobilization, and professionalization of the military forces. In the baseline, uncertainties about implementation of those conditions suggest scope for only a slow and weak recovery, leaving real per capita incomes below 2011 levels until at least 2016.
How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth
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Author : Mr. Ari Aisen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-01-01
How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth written by Mr. Ari Aisen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.
The Macroeconomic Impact Of Social Unrest
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Author : Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-05-07
The Macroeconomic Impact Of Social Unrest written by Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-07 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. The findings are threefold. First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below the pre-shock baseline six quarters after a one-standard deviation increase in the unrest index. This is driven by sharp contractions in manufacturing and services (sectoral dimension), and consumption (demand dimension). Second, unrest lowers confidence and raises uncertainty; however, its adverse effect on GDP can be mitigated by strong institutions and by a country’s policy space. Third, an unrest “event”, which is captured by a large change in the unrest index, is associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event. Impacts differ by type of event: episodes motivated by socio-economic reasons result in sharper GDP contractions compared to those associated with politics/elections, and events triggered by a combination of both factors lead to sharpest contractions. Results are not driven by countries with adverse growth trajectories prior to unrest events or by fiscal consolidations, and are robust to instrumenting via regional unrest.
The Political Economy Of Fiscal Policy
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Author : Jaejoon Woo
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-02-25
The Political Economy Of Fiscal Policy written by Jaejoon Woo and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-02-25 with Business & Economics categories.
One of the most striking macroeconomic developments during the last three decades is the rise and persistence of large fiscal deficits in a number of countries. Despite recent major fiscal reforms around the world, many countries suffer from recurrent large fiscal imbalances that often reflect lack of fiscal discipline. Why do some countries have recurrent fiscal deficit or volatility problems, while others do not? What factors are most important in explaining cross-country variation in fiscal outcomes? How are they related to growth or inflation? This book presents new, rigorous, theoretical and empirical studies on these fiscal issues, and highlights social polarization as an essential organizing principle in a political economy approach. Also, it discusses how institutional constraints may favourably affect fiscal dynamics in the presence of social polarization.
Estimating Impact
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Author : Alexander Kott
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-09-15
Estimating Impact written by Alexander Kott and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-15 with Computers categories.
Sociological theories of crime include: theories of strain blame crime on personal stressors; theories of social learning blame crime on its social rewards, and see crime more as an institution in conflict with other institutions rather than as in- vidual deviance; and theories of control look at crime as natural and rewarding, and explore the formation of institutions that control crime. Theorists of corruption generally agree that corruption is an expression of the Patron–Client relationship in which a person with access to resources trades resources with kin and members of the community in exchange for loyalty. Some approaches to modeling crime and corruption do not involve an explicit simulation: rule based systems; Bayesian networks; game theoretic approaches, often based on rational choice theory; and Neoclassical Econometrics, a rational choice-based approach. Simulation-based approaches take into account greater complexities of interacting parts of social phenomena. These include fuzzy cognitive maps and fuzzy rule sets that may incorporate feedback; and agent-based simulation, which can go a step farther by computing new social structures not previously identified in theory. The latter include cognitive agent models, in which agents learn how to perceive their en- ronment and act upon the perceptions of their individual experiences; and reactive agent simulation, which, while less capable than cognitive-agent simulation, is adequate for testing a policy’s effects with existing societal structures. For example, NNL is a cognitive agent model based on the REPAST Simphony toolkit.
Investment Behavior Of Multinational Corporations In Developing Areas
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Author : Bret Lee Billet
language : en
Publisher: Transaction Publishers
Release Date :
Investment Behavior Of Multinational Corporations In Developing Areas written by Bret Lee Billet and has been published by Transaction Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Business & Economics categories.
If political power is directly related to economic wealth, then multinational corporations are powerful actors in the international system. The sales of some are greater than the gross national product of some of the most economically advanced countries in the world. This book examines key political and economic factors that influence the behavior of multinationals when they decide where to make direct investments, as well as how their investment decisions affect the development process and policies in host countries. It also looks for discernible patterns in the behavior of multinationals that originate in different home countries. These include corporations from Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries that are members of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Japan, and the United States.