The Dynamic Effects Of Aggregate Demand And Supply Disturbances
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The Dynamic Effects Of Aggregate Demand And Supply Disturbances
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Author : Olivier J. Blanchard
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1988
The Dynamic Effects Of Aggregate Demand And Supply Disturbances written by Olivier J. Blanchard and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Gross national product categories.
We interpret fluctuations in GNP and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not. We interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances. We find that demand disturbances have a hump shaped effect on both output and unemployment; the effect peaks after a year and vanishes after two to five years. Up to a scale factor, the dynamic effect on unemployment of demand disturbances is a mirror image of that on output. The effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time, to reach a peak after two years and a plateau after five years. 'Favorab1e supply disturbances may initially increase unemployment. This is followed by a decline in unemployment, with a slow return over time to its original value. While this dynamic characterization is fairly sharp, the data are not as specific as to the relative contributions of demand and supply disturbances to output fluctuations. We find that the time series of demand-determined output fluctuations has peaks and troughs which coincide with most of the NBER troughs and peaks. But variance decompositions of output at various horizons giving the respective contributions of supply and demand disturbances are not precisely estimated. For instance, at a forecast horizon of four quarters, we find that, under alternative assumptions, the contribution of demand disturbances ranges from 40 to over 95 per cent.
The Dynamic Effects Of Aggregate Demand And Supply Disturbances
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Author : Helmut Hofer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
The Dynamic Effects Of Aggregate Demand And Supply Disturbances written by Helmut Hofer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Autoregression (Statistics) categories.
Dynamic Effects Of Demand And Supply Disturbances On The Finnish Economy
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Author : Johanna Hartikainen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
Dynamic Effects Of Demand And Supply Disturbances On The Finnish Economy written by Johanna Hartikainen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with categories.
Tiivistelmä.
Technology Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations
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Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2004-12-01
Technology Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Handbook Of Research Methods And Applications In Empirical Macroeconomics
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Author : Nigar Hashimzade
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2013-01-01
Handbook Of Research Methods And Applications In Empirical Macroeconomics written by Nigar Hashimzade and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading. Topics covered include unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks, time aggregation, forecasting, the Kalman filter, generalised method of moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, vector autoregressive, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and dynamic panel models. Presenting the most important models and techniques for empirical research, this Handbook will appeal to students, researchers and academics working in empirical macro and econometrics.
What Really Accounts For The Fall In Hours After A Technology Shock
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Author : Mr.Nooman Rebei
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-08-01
What Really Accounts For The Fall In Hours After A Technology Shock written by Mr.Nooman Rebei and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper asks how state of the art DSGE models that account for the conditional response of hours following a positive neutral technology shock compare in a marginal likelihood race. To that end we construct and estimate several competing small-scale DSGE models that extend the standard real business cycle model. In particular, we identify from the literature six different hypotheses that generate the empirically observed decline in worked hours after a positive technology shock. These models alternatively exhibit (i) sticky prices; (ii) firm entry and exit with time to build; (iii) habit in consumption and costly adjustment of investment; (iv) persistence in the permanent technology shocks; (v) labor market friction with procyclical hiring costs; and (vi) Leontief production function with labor-saving technology shocks. In terms of model posterior probabilities, impulse responses, and autocorrelations, the model favored is the one that exhibits habit formation in consumption and investment adjustment costs. A robustness test shows that the sticky price model becomes as competitive as the habit formation and costly adjustment of investment model when sticky wages are included.
Aggregate Money Demand Functions
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Author : Dennis L. Hoffman
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Aggregate Money Demand Functions written by Dennis L. Hoffman and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The econometric consequences of nonstationary data have wide ranging im plications for empirical research in economics. Specifically, these issues have implications for the study of empirical relations such as a money demand func tion that links macroeconomic aggregates: real money balances, real income and a nominal interest rate. Traditional monetary theory predicts that these nonsta tionary series form a cointegrating relation and accordingly, that the dynamics of a vector process comprised of these variables generates distinct patterns. Re cent econometric developments designed to cope with nonstationarities have changed the course of empirical research in the area, but many fundamental challenges, for example the issue of identification, remain. This book represents the efforts undertaken by the authors in recent years in an effort to determine the consequences that nonstationarity has for the study of aggregate money demand relations. We have brought together an empirical methodology that we find useful in conducting empirical research. Some of the work was undertaken during the authors' sabbatical periods and we wish to acknowledge the generous support of Arizona State University and Michigan State University respectively. Professor Hoffman wishes to acknowledge the support of the Fulbright-Hays Foundation that supported sabbattical research in Europe and separate support of the Council of 100 Summer Research Program at Arizona State University.
International Evidenceon The Determinants Of Trade Dynamics
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Author : Mr.Eswar Prasad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-12-01
International Evidenceon The Determinants Of Trade Dynamics written by Mr.Eswar Prasad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants are presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.
Technology Shocks And Monetary Policy
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Author : Jordi Galí
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
Technology Shocks And Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Business cycles categories.