The Dynamic Effects Of Local Labor Market Shocks On Small Firms In The United States
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The Dynamic Effects Of Local Labor Market Shocks On Small Firms In The United States
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Author : Mr. Philip Barrett
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-22
The Dynamic Effects Of Local Labor Market Shocks On Small Firms In The United States written by Mr. Philip Barrett and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We use payroll data on over 1 million workers at 80,000 small firms to construct county-month measures of employment, hours, and wages that correct for dynamic changes in sample composition in response to business cycle fluctuations. We use this to estimate the response of small firms' employment, hours and wages following tighter local labor market conditions. We find that employment and hours per worker fall and wages rise. This is consistent with the predictions of the response to a demand shock in the well-known “jobs ladder” model of labor markets. To check this interpretation, we show our results hold when instrumenting for local demand using county-level Department of Defense contract spending. Correction for dynamic sample bias is important -- without it, the hours fall by only one third as much and wages increase by double.
How Effects Of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary With Local Labor Market Conditions
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Author : Timothy J. Bartik
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
How Effects Of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary With Local Labor Market Conditions written by Timothy J. Bartik and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with Job creation categories.
This paper estimates how effects of shocks to local labor demand on local labor market outcomes vary with initial local economic conditions. The data are on U.S. metro areas from 1979 to 2011. The paper finds that demand shocks to local job growth have greater effects in reducing local unemployment rates if the local economy is initially depressed than if the local economy is booming. Demand shocks have greater effects on local wage rates if the local unemployment rate is initially low, but lesser effects if local job growth is initially high. These different effects of local demand shocks imply that social benefits of adding jobs are two to three times greater per job in more depressed local labor markets, compared to more booming local labor markets.
Regional Labor Market Adjustments In The United States
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Author : Mai Dao
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-11-25
Regional Labor Market Adjustments In The United States written by Mai Dao and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-25 with Business & Economics categories.
We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past four decades. We find that the response of interstate migration to relative labor market conditions has decreased, while the role of the unemployment rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased. However, the response of net migration to regional shocks is stronger during aggregate downturns and increased particularly during the Great Recession. We offer a potential explanation for the cyclical pattern of migration response based on the variation in consumption risk sharing.
Essays On Labor Market Dynamics
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Author : Christina Hyde Patterson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Essays On Labor Market Dynamics written by Christina Hyde Patterson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
This thesis consists of three chapters on labor market dynamics. In the first chapter, I show empirically that the unequal incidence of recessions is a core channel through which aggregate shocks are amplified. I show that the aggregate marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is larger when income shocks disproportionately hit high-MPC individuals, and I define the Matching Multiplier as the increase in the output multiplier originating from the matching of workers to jobs with different income elasticities - a greater matching multiplier translates into more powerful amplification in a range of business cycle models. Using administrative data from the United States, I document that the earnings of individuals with a higher marginal propensity to consume are more exposed to recessions. I show that this covariance between worker MPCs and the elasticity of their earnings to GDP is large enough to increase shock amplification by 40 percent over a benchmark in which all workers are equally exposed. Using local labor market variation, I validate this amplification mechanism by showing that areas with higher matching multipliers experience larger employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Lastly, I derive a generalization of the matching multiplier in an incomplete markets model and show numerically that this mechanism is quantitatively similar within this structural framework. In the second chapter, joint with David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence Katz, and John Van Reenen, we explore the well-documented fall of labor's share of GDP in the United States and many other countries. Existing empirical assessments typically rely on industry or macro data, obscuring heterogeneity among firms. In this paper, we analyze micro panel data from the U.S. Economic Census since 1982 and document empirical patterns to assess a new interpretation of the fall in the labor share based on the rise of "superstar firms." If globalization or technological changes advantage the most productive firms in each industry, product market concentration will rise as industries become increasingly dominated by superstar firms. Since these firms have high markups and a low labor share of firm value-added and sales, this depresses the aggregate labor share. We empirically assess seven predictions of this hypothesis: (i) industry sales will increasingly concentrate in a small number of firms; (ii) industries where concentration rises most will have the largest declines in the labor share; (iii) the fall in the labor share will be driven largely by reallocation rather than a fall in the unweighted mean labor share across all firms; (iv) the between-firm reallocation component of the fall in the labor share will be greatest in the sectors with the largest increases in market concentration; (v) the industries that are becoming more concentrated will exhibit faster growth of productivity and innovation; (vi) the aggregate markup will rise more than the unweighted firm markup; and (vii) these patterns should be observed not only in U.S. firms, but also internationally. We find support for all of these predictions. In the third chapter, I explore how the distribution of tasks across industries affects labor market responses to shocks. I present a model in which task-level wages connect industries employing the same tasks, meaning that the distribution of tasks across industries insures some workers against shocks and alters their labor market experiences. Workers trained in more dispersed tasks (e.g. accountants) face less unemployment risk from industry-specific shocks than workers who do tasks that are concentrated in few industries (e.g. petroleum engineers). Using industry and regional data, I show empirical evidence that supports the model's predictions - industries that employ more specialized labor contract less in response to demand shocks than industries with less specialized labor. JEL Classifications: E21, J23, D33
Labor Market Dynamics And The Business Cycle
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Author : Morten O. Ravn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Labor Market Dynamics And The Business Cycle written by Morten O. Ravn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Local Labor Market Shocks And Family Outcomes
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Author : Jessamyn Schaller
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Local Labor Market Shocks And Family Outcomes written by Jessamyn Schaller and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
While the most often-cited impacts of negative shocks to local labor market shocks are those to individuals' earnings and employment status, the repercussions of economic recession extend beyond these direct labor market effects. My dissertation research explores the effects of local labor market shocks and job displacement on families. Together, the three chapters of my dissertation contribute a better understanding of the overall welfare impacts of business cycle fluctuations. Chapter 1 examines the effect of local labor markets on fertility. To identify exogenous variation in male and female labor demand, I create indices that exploit cross-sectional variation in industry composition, changes in gender-composition within industries, and growth in national industry employment. Consistent with economic theory, I find that improvements in men's labor market conditions are associated with increases in fertility while improvements in women's labor market conditions have the opposite effect. I separately find that increases in unemployment rates are associated with small significant decreases in birth rates. In Chapter 2, I study the effect of business cycles on marriage and divorce rates. I find that increased unemployment is associated with small but significant reductions in both marriages and divorces. The results are robust to replacing general unemployment rates with alternative measures of state economic health, hold for both blacks and whites, and are concentrated among working-aged individuals. Timing analysis suggests that the effect of a shock to the unemployment rate on marriage rates is permanent, while the effect on divorce rates is temporary. In Chapter 3, Ann Stevens and I study the relationship between parental job loss and children's academic achievement using data on job loss and grade retention from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We find that a parental job loss increases the probability of children's grade retention by 0.8 percentage points, or around 15 percent. After conditioning on child fixed effects, there is no evidence of significantly increased grade retention prior to the job loss, suggesting a causal link between the parental employment shock and children's academic difficulties. These effects are concentrated among children whose parents have a high school education or less.
Regional Labor Market Adjustments In The United States And Europe
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Author : Mai Dao
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-02-11
Regional Labor Market Adjustments In The United States And Europe written by Mai Dao and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-11 with Business & Economics categories.
We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past 40 years. Using state-level data, we estimate the dynamic response of regional employment, unemployment, participation rates and net migration to state-relative labor demand shocks. We find that (i) the long-run effect of a state-specific shock on the state employment level has decreased over time, suggesting less overall net migration in response to a regional shock, (ii) the role of the participation rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased, (iii) the response of net migration to regional shocks is stronger, while that of relative unemployment is weaker during aggregate downturns, and (iv) the change in the response intensity of migration is related to the declining trend in regional dispersion of labor market conditions. Finally, using regional data for a set of 21 European countries, we show that while the short-term response of participation rates to labor demand shocks is typically larger in Europe than in the US, the immediate response of net migration in Europe has increased over time.
Redistribution Of Local Labor Market Shocks Through Firms Internal Networks
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Author : Xavier Giroud
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Redistribution Of Local Labor Market Shocks Through Firms Internal Networks written by Xavier Giroud and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Local labor market shocks are difficult to insure against. Using confidential micro data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database, we document that firms redistribute the employment impacts of local demand shocks across regions through their internal networks of establishments. During the Great Recession, the massive decline in house prices caused a sharp drop in consumer demand, leading to large employment losses in the non-tradable sector. Consistent with firms smoothing out the impacts of these shocks across regions, we find large elasticities of non-tradable establishment-level employment with respect to house prices in other counties in which the firm has establishments. At the same time, establishments of firms with larger regional networks exhibit lower employment elasticities with respect to local house prices in the establishment's own county. To account for general equilibrium adjustments, we aggregate non-tradable employment at the county level. Similar to what we found at the establishment level, we find that non-tradable county-level employment responds strongly to local demand shocks in other counties linked through firms' internal networks. These results are not driven by direct demand spillovers from nearby counties, common shocks to house prices, or local demand shocks affecting non-tradable employment in distant counties indirectly via the trade channel. Our results suggest that firms play an important role in the extent to which local labor market risks are shared across regions.
Handbook Of Labor Economics
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Author : Orley Ashenfelter
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 1999-11-18
Handbook Of Labor Economics written by Orley Ashenfelter and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-11-18 with Business & Economics categories.
A guide to the continually evolving field of labour economics.
Aggregate Effects In Local Labor Markets Of Supply And Demand Shocks
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Author : Timothy J. Bartik
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Aggregate Effects In Local Labor Markets Of Supply And Demand Shocks written by Timothy J. Bartik and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Labor market categories.
Based on state-level labour market data from the Outgoing Rotation Group of the Current Population Survey from 1979 to 1997, discusses the wage and displacement effects of supply and demand shocks.