The Economics And Finance Of Commodity Price Shocks
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The Economics And Finance Of Commodity Price Shocks
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Author : Mikidadu Mohammed
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2021-11-25
The Economics And Finance Of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-25 with Business & Economics categories.
The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.
The Influence Of Commodity Price Shocks On Share Prices
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Author : Philipp Heilmann
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2012-03-15
The Influence Of Commodity Price Shocks On Share Prices written by Philipp Heilmann and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Groningen (Faculty of Economics and Business), language: English, abstract: This paper analyses the influence of commodity price shocks on companies’ firm value. Two timeframes of shocks on the commodities copper, aluminium as well as two rare earth elements, neodymium and lanthanum, were studied on their effects on stock prices. Companies have been selected according to their industry, their size, country of origin and commodity exposure. Unique issues in this work are the focus on commodity price shocks and the pre- selection of companies, where the chosen commodities are assumingly key input factors. Therefore this paper attempts to shed new light on the importance of commodity price exposure for the firm value of companies.
Commodity Prices And Markets
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Author : Takatoshi Ito
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2011-02-15
Commodity Prices And Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.
Managing Global Growth Risks And Commodity Price Shocks
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Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-06-20
Managing Global Growth Risks And Commodity Price Shocks written by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-06-20 with Business & Economics categories.
As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Commodity Price Cycles
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Author : Gustavo Adler
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-12-01
Commodity Price Cycles written by Gustavo Adler and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity-exporting countries have significantly benefited from the commodity price boom of recent years. At the current juncture, however, uncertain global economic prospects have raised questions about their vulnerability to a sharp fall in commodity prices and the policies that can shield it from such a shock. To address these questions, this paper takes a long term (4 decade) view at emerging markets' commodity dependence, the history of commodity price busts and the role of policies in mitigating or amplifying their economic impact. The paper highlights the stark difference in trends between Latin America - one of the most vulnerable regions given its high, and rising, commodity dependence - and emerging Asia - which has evolved from being a net exporter to a net importer of commodities in the last 40 years. We find evidence, however, that while commodity dependence is an important ingredient, a country's ultimate degree of vulnerability to commodity price shocks is to a great extent determined by the flexibility and quality of its policy framework. Policies in the run-up of sharp terms-of-trade drops - especially when those are preceded by booms - play a particularly important role. Limited exchange rate flexibility, a weak external position, and loose fiscal policy tend to amplify the negative effects of these shocks on domestic output. Financial dollarization also appears to act as a shock "amplifier."
International Commodity Prices And Domestic Bank Lending In Developing Countries
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Author : Isha Agrawal
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-12-14
International Commodity Prices And Domestic Bank Lending In Developing Countries written by Isha Agrawal and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-12-14 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.
How Persistent Are Shocks To World Commodity Prices
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Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1999-06-01
How Persistent Are Shocks To World Commodity Prices written by Mr.Paul Cashin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings for national and international schemes to stabilize earnings from commodity exports and finds that if price shocks are long–lived, then the cost of stabilization schemes will likely exceed any associated smoothing benefits.
Commodity Prices
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Author : Mr.Peter Wickham
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1994-01-01
Commodity Prices written by Mr.Peter Wickham and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s and there is evidence of renewed weakness. The appropriate policy response to a terms of trade shock depends importantly on whether the shock is perceived to be temporary or permanent. Our results indicate that the recent weakness in commodity prices is mostly of a secular nature, stressing the need for commodity exporting countries to concentrate on export diversification and other structural policies. There is, however, scope for stabilization funds and the use of hedging strategies since the evidence also suggests commodity prices have become more volatile.
Commodity Price Movements And Banking Crises
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Author : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-07-06
Commodity Price Movements And Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-06 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.
Asymmetric Non Commodity Output Responses To Commodity Price Shocks
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Author : Mr. Amine Mati
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-06-11
Asymmetric Non Commodity Output Responses To Commodity Price Shocks written by Mr. Amine Mati and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.