The Flaw Of Averages
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The Flaw Of Averages
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Author : Sam L. Savage
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-03-13
The Flaw Of Averages written by Sam L. Savage and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-13 with Business & Economics categories.
A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics
The Flaw Of Averages
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Author : Sam L. Savage
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2009-06-03
The Flaw Of Averages written by Sam L. Savage and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-06-03 with Business & Economics categories.
"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." —William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible . . . the Distribution String . . . represents a major breakthrough in the communication of risk and uncertainty." —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics "This is a book written for laymen with enough interesting insights to engage even the most scholarly professional." —Douglas Hubbard, author of How to Measure Anything "Sam Savage is the Edward Tufte of risk." —Matthew Raphaelson, Executive Vice President, Wells Fargo A GROUNDBREAKING MUST-READ FOR ANYONE WHO MAKES BUSINESS DECISIONS IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage—known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects—describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. He explains why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as finance, healthcare, accounting, the war on terror, and climate change. Savage refers to anachronistic statistical jargon as Red Words, which he defines as things that may not be uttered in a singles bar. Instead, he presents complex concepts in plain English (Green Words), backed up by interactive simulations at www.FlawofAverages.com, which connect the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants. Savage also presents the emerging field of Probability Management aimed at curing the Flaw of Averages through more transparent communication of uncertainty and risk. Savage argues that this is a problem that must be solved if we are to improve the stability of our economy, and that we cannot repeat the recent mistakes of applying "steam era" statistics to "information age" risks.
The End Of Average
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Author : Todd Rose
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2016-01-28
The End Of Average written by Todd Rose and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-28 with Psychology categories.
'Must the tyranny of the group rule us from cradle to grave? Absolutely not, says Todd Rose in a subversive and readable introduction to what has been called the new science of the individual ... Readers will be moved' Abigail Zuger, The New York Times 'Groundbreaking ... The man who can teach you how not to be average' Anna Hart, Daily Telegraph 'Fascinating, engaging, and practical. The End of Average will help everyone - and I mean everyone - live up to their potential' Amy Cuddy, author of Presence 'Lively and entertaining ... a cheering story of how the square pegs among us can build successful lives despite being unable or unwilling to fit into round holes' Matthew Reisz, Times Higher Education 'Heartening . . . a worthwhile read for the aspiring nonconformist' Iain Morris, Observer
Flaws And Fallacies In Statistical Thinking
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Author : Stephen K. Campbell
language : en
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Release Date : 2012-05-14
Flaws And Fallacies In Statistical Thinking written by Stephen K. Campbell and has been published by Courier Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-14 with Mathematics categories.
Nontechnical survey helps improve ability to judge statistical evidence and to make better-informed decisions. Discusses common pitfalls: unrealistic estimates, improper comparisons, premature conclusions, and faulty thinking about probability. 1974 edition.
Flexibility In Engineering Design
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Author : Richard De Neufville
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2011-08-12
Flexibility In Engineering Design written by Richard De Neufville and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-12 with Science categories.
A guide to using the power of design flexibility to improve the performance of complex technological projects, for designers, managers, users, and analysts. Project teams can improve results by recognizing that the future is inevitably uncertain and that by creating flexible designs they can adapt to eventualities. This approach enables them to take advantage of new opportunities and avoid harmful losses. Designers of complex, long-lasting projects—such as communication networks, power plants, or hospitals—must learn to abandon fixed specifications and narrow forecasts. They need to avoid the “flaw of averages,” the conceptual pitfall that traps so many designs in underperformance. Failure to allow for changing circumstances risks leaving significant value untapped. This book is a guide for creating and implementing value-enhancing flexibility in design. It will be an essential resource for all participants in the development and operation of technological systems: designers, managers, financial analysts, investors, regulators, and academics. The book provides a high-level overview of why flexibility in design is needed to deliver significantly increased value. It describes in detail methods to identify, select, and implement useful flexibility. The book is unique in that it explicitly recognizes that future outcomes are uncertain. It thus presents forecasting, analysis, and evaluation tools especially suited to this reality. Appendixes provide expanded explanations of concepts and analytic tools.
Value Investing
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Author : James Montier
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2009-12-02
Value Investing written by James Montier and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-02 with Business & Economics categories.
"As with his weekly column, James Montier's Value Investing is a must read for all students of the financial markets. In short order, Montier shreds the 'efficient market hypothesis', elucidates the pertinence of behavioral finance, and explains the crucial difference between investment process and investment outcomes. Montier makes his arguments with clear insight and spirited good humor, and then backs them up with cold hard facts. Buy this book for yourself, and for anyone you know who cares about their capital!" —Seth Klarman, President, The Baupost Group LLC The seductive elegance of classical finance theory is powerful, yet value investing requires that we reject both the precepts of modern portfolio theory (MPT) and pretty much all of its tools and techniques. In this important new book, the highly respected and controversial value investor and behavioural analyst, James Montier explains how value investing is the only tried and tested method of delivering sustainable long-term returns. James shows you why everything you learnt at business school is wrong; how to think properly about valuation and risk; how to avoid the dangers of growth investing; how to be a contrarian; how to short stocks; how to avoid value traps; how to hedge ignorance using cheap insurance. Crucially he also gives real time examples of the principles outlined in the context of the 2008/09 financial crisis. In this book James shares his tried and tested techniques and provides the latest and most cutting edge tools you will need to deploy the value approach successfully. It provides you with the tools to start thinking in a different fashion about the way in which you invest, introducing the ways of over-riding the emotional distractions that will bedevil the pursuit of a value approach and ultimately think and act differently from the herd.
Picturing The Uncertain World
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Author : Howard Wainer
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2021-06-08
Picturing The Uncertain World written by Howard Wainer and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-08 with Science categories.
In his entertaining and informative book Graphic Discovery, Howard Wainer unlocked the power of graphical display to make complex problems clear. Now he's back with Picturing the Uncertain World, a book that explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a New Yorker cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world. Picturing the Uncertain World takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs. We live in a world full of uncertainty, yet it is within our grasp to take its measure. Read Picturing the Uncertain World and learn how.
Decision Making With Insight
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Author : Sam L. Savage
language : en
Publisher: Cengage Learning
Release Date : 2003
Decision Making With Insight written by Sam L. Savage and has been published by Cengage Learning this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business categories.
Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several years by the author.
Statistical Inference As Severe Testing
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Author : Deborah G. Mayo
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2018-09-20
Statistical Inference As Severe Testing written by Deborah G. Mayo and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-20 with Mathematics categories.
Unlock today's statistical controversies and irreproducible results by viewing statistics as probing and controlling errors.
Statistics Done Wrong
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Author : Alex Reinhart
language : en
Publisher: No Starch Press
Release Date : 2015-03-01
Statistics Done Wrong written by Alex Reinhart and has been published by No Starch Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-01 with Mathematics categories.
Scientific progress depends on good research, and good research needs good statistics. But statistical analysis is tricky to get right, even for the best and brightest of us. You'd be surprised how many scientists are doing it wrong. Statistics Done Wrong is a pithy, essential guide to statistical blunders in modern science that will show you how to keep your research blunder-free. You'll examine embarrassing errors and omissions in recent research, learn about the misconceptions and scientific politics that allow these mistakes to happen, and begin your quest to reform the way you and your peers do statistics. You'll find advice on: –Asking the right question, designing the right experiment, choosing the right statistical analysis, and sticking to the plan –How to think about p values, significance, insignificance, confidence intervals, and regression –Choosing the right sample size and avoiding false positives –Reporting your analysis and publishing your data and source code –Procedures to follow, precautions to take, and analytical software that can help Scientists: Read this concise, powerful guide to help you produce statistically sound research. Statisticians: Give this book to everyone you know. The first step toward statistics done right is Statistics Done Wrong.