The Impact Of Demographics On Productivity And Inflation In Japan
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The Impact Of Demographics On Productivity And Inflation In Japan
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Author : Mr.Niklas J Westelius
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-01-18
The Impact Of Demographics On Productivity And Inflation In Japan written by Mr.Niklas J Westelius and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-18 with Business & Economics categories.
Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.
Demographics And The Natural Rate Of Interest In Japan
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Author : Mr.Fei Han
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-02-15
Demographics And The Natural Rate Of Interest In Japan written by Mr.Fei Han and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-15 with Social Science categories.
Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Korea S Challenges Ahead Lessons From Japan S Experience
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Author : Ms.Edda Zoli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-01-18
Korea S Challenges Ahead Lessons From Japan S Experience written by Ms.Edda Zoli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-18 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets, asset prices and inflation. Korea’s demographic trends seem to track Japan’s with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity in the service sector and labor market duality are common to both countries and need to be addressed with structural reforms. While Korea’s corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan’s in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the restructuring of nonviable firms to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed balance-sheet repair that Japan experienced. Given its strong fiscal balance sheet position, Korea can afford using fiscal policy actively to incentivize corporate restructuring and structural reforms and cushion their possible short-term adverse impact. Korea can prevent bubbles in asset prices that were at the origin of Japan’s initial crisis with the continued use of macroprudential policies. Although Korea does not appear to be headed toward deflation, new econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that aging will exert a downward drag on its inflation going forward.
Demographics And The Natural Rate Of Interest In Japan
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Author : Mr.Fei Han
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Demographics And The Natural Rate Of Interest In Japan written by Mr.Fei Han and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Japan
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-08-02
Japan written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Japan: Selected Issues
Japan S Lost Decade
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Author : Mr.Tim Callen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-02-13
Japan S Lost Decade written by Mr.Tim Callen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Japan’s weak economic performance in the 1990s has had implications not only for its own people, but for the world economy more generally, given Japan’s importance as a trading partner and supplier of capital. Therefore, it is essential that Japan unlock its growth potential. The IMF has worked with the Japanese authorities to identify the policies needed to bring Japan’s economy out of its recent slump. This book contributes to this ongoing debate, whose major topics include the need for an integrated policy strategy based on the decisive restructuring of the banking and corporate sectors, combined with macroeconomic policies designed to bring an end to deflation.
Macroeconomic Effects Of Japan S Demographics Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them
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Author : Mariana Colacelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-11-28
Macroeconomic Effects Of Japan S Demographics Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them written by Mariana Colacelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
Japan
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2000-11-02
Japan written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-11-02 with Business & Economics categories.
A sustained decline in fertility rates underlies a rapid aging and decline of Japan's population. This will have profound social and economic implications. The paper illustrates the difficult situation facing Japanese fiscal policy in the years ahead. The findings of this paper indicate that there may be a role for foreign exchange interventions in providing stimulus at the current conjuncture. Deposit insurance reform is a central element in the government strategy to strengthen the Japanese banking system. The unemployment-deflation puzzle in Japan has been explained.
The Great Demographic Reversal
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Author : Charles Goodhart
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-08-08
The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Productivity Drag From Small And Medium Sized Enterprises In Japan
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Author : Mariana Colacelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-01
Productivity Drag From Small And Medium Sized Enterprises In Japan written by Mariana Colacelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Productivity growth in Japan, as in most advanced economies, has moderated. This paper finds supportive evidence for the important role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in explaining Japan’s modest productivity growth. Results show a substantial dispersion in firm-level productivity growth across sectors and even across firms within the same sector. SMEs, on average, exhibit lower productivity growth than non-SMEs in Japan, with smaller and older SMEs showing particularly low productivity growth. Estimates suggest that boosting productivity growth in all of the worst-performing SMEs could improve overall productivity growth by up to 1.8 percentage points. The SME credit guarantee system, SME financing constraints, demographic factors, and lack of intangible capital investment are discussed as contributors to the slow productivity growth of Japan’s small and old SMEs.