The Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks In The United Kingdom
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The Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks On The Uk Economy
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Author : MissStephanie Denis
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-03-08
The Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks On The Uk Economy written by MissStephanie Denis and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly similar to that of the US both in terms of the shape and magnitude of the response. However, unemployment in the UK is less affected by uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find that uncertainty shocks can account for about a quarter of the decline in industrial production during the Great Recession.
The Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks In The United Kingdom
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Author : Chris Redl
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
The Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks In The United Kingdom written by Chris Redl and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
The Time Varying Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks On The Comovement Of Regional Housing Prices Of The United Kingdom
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Author : Oguzhan Cepni
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
The Time Varying Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks On The Comovement Of Regional Housing Prices Of The United Kingdom written by Oguzhan Cepni and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
Effects Of Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks On The Long Run Us Uk Stock Market Correlation
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Author : Hossein Asgharian
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Effects Of Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks On The Long Run Us Uk Stock Market Correlation written by Hossein Asgharian and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
The Long Run Effects Of Uncertainty Shocks
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Author : Dario Bonciani
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The Long Run Effects Of Uncertainty Shocks written by Dario Bonciani and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
The Economic Impact Of Uncertainty On France Germany And The United Kingdom
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Author : Jens Biewer
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2020-03-17
The Economic Impact Of Uncertainty On France Germany And The United Kingdom written by Jens Biewer and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Master's Thesis from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1,3, University of Trier, language: English, abstract: This work deals with the economic impact of uncertainty on macroeconomically important variables in three countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. First, the econometric bases are derived, starting with a univariate case. With the introduction of the vector autoregressive model, time series of variables are included, which all depend on and influence each other. Subsequently, the individual preparations, such as Cholesky decomposition, are made to derive the innovations that flow into the system. After the data and variables to be considered for the model have been described in detail, stationarity tests must be carried out to enable consistent estimates to be made later. For this it is necessary to perform additional transformations. Finally, the VAR model is estimated and the results can be visualized and interpreted. It is shown that short-term shocks in uncertainty have different impacts on the variables under consideration. In addition, country-specific responses can be identified in the course of the Impulse Response Functions, differing in terms of amplitude, direction, behavior and persistence. With the help of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, interdependencies between variables can be identified and possibly put into a logical, functional context.
The Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
The Impact Of Uncertainty Shocks written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Business categories.
Uncertainty appears to vary strongly over time, temporarily rising by up to 200% around major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK and 9/11. This paper offers the first structural framework to analyze uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm level data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in employment, investment and productivity, and a moderate loss in GDP. This temporary impact of a second moment shock is different from the typically persistent impact of a first moment shock, highlighting the importance for policymakers of identifying their relative magnitudes in major shocks. The simulation of an uncertainty shock is then compared to actual 9/11 data, displaying a surprisingly good match.
Measuring Global And Country Specific Uncertainty
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Author : Ezgi O. Ozturk
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-10-30
Measuring Global And Country Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Fear Thy Neighbor Spillovers From Economic Policy Uncertainty
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Author : Nina Biljanovska
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-15
Fear Thy Neighbor Spillovers From Economic Policy Uncertainty written by Nina Biljanovska and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
High levels of economic policy uncertainty in various parts of the world revamped the de- bate about its impact on economic activity. With increasingly stronger economic, financial, and political ties among countries, economic agents have more reasons to be vigilant of for- eign economic policy. Employing heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressions, this paper tests for spillovers from economic policy uncertainty on other countries' economic ac- tivity. Furthermore, using local projections, the paper zooms in on shocks originating in the United States, Europe, and China. Our results suggest that economic policy uncertainty re- duces growth in real output, private consumption, and private investment, and that spillovers from abroad account for about two-thirds of the negative effect. Moreover, uncertainty in the United States, Europe, and China reduces economic activity in the rest of the world, with the effects being mostly felt in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
The Impact Of Uncertainty And Certainty Shocks
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Author : Yves S. Schüler
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
The Impact Of Uncertainty And Certainty Shocks written by Yves S. Schüler and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
I propose a Bayesian quantile VAR to identify and assess the impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks, unifying Bloom's (2009) two identification steps into one. I find that an uncertainty shock widens the conditional distribution of future real economic activity growth, in line with a risk shock. Conversely, a certainty shock (a shock strongly decreasing uncertainty) narrows the conditional distribution of future real activity growth. In addition to the difference in signs, I show that the two shocks are different shocks. Each shock impacts the real economy uniquely. I support this with the underlying events: For instance, uncertainty shocks relate to events such as Black Monday and 9/11, but also to fears about future negative economic outcomes. In contrast, certainty shocks often link to phases of irrational exuberance. Commonly, no distinction is made between uncertainty and certainty shocks. I show that uncertainty shocks become more important if distinguished from certainty shocks.