The Long Term Behavior Of Commodity Prices
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The Long Term Behavior Of Commodity Prices
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Author : Pier Giorgio Ardeni
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 1990
The Long Term Behavior Of Commodity Prices written by Pier Giorgio Ardeni and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Commodity futures categories.
The Long Run Behavior Of Commodity Prices
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Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2001-05-01
The Long Run Behavior Of Commodity Prices written by Mr.Paul Cashin and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per year over the last 140 years, little support is found for a break in the long-run trend decline in commodity prices. Second, there is evidence of a ratcheting up in the variability of price movements. The amplitude of price movements increased in the early 1900s, while the frequency of large price movements increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s. While there is a downward trend in real commodity prices, this is of little practical policy relevance as it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices.
Commodity And Manufactures Prices In The Long Run
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Author : Mr.James M. Boughton
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1991-05-01
Commodity And Manufactures Prices In The Long Run written by Mr.James M. Boughton and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The low level of primary commodity prices since 1985 is examined in the context of the behavior of those prices relative to prices of manufactured goods since 1854. The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in relative commodity prices is sustained, but the recent decline is shown to be well outside the realm of historical experience. Commodity and manufactures prices are found to be cointegrated, conditional on the negative trend and a number of unexplained short-term swings. The earlier finding of a Gibson paradox is explained in terms of the difference between short- and long-run relationships.
Commodity Markets And The Global Economy
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Author : Blake C. Clayton
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2016
Commodity Markets And The Global Economy written by Blake C. Clayton and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides a clear-eyed analysis of questions at the intersection of commodity markets, natural resource economics, and public policy.
How Commodity Price Curves And Inventories React To A Short Run Scarcity Shock
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Author : Mr.Shaun K. Roache
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-09-01
How Commodity Price Curves And Inventories React To A Short Run Scarcity Shock written by Mr.Shaun K. Roache and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
How does a commodity market adjust to a temporary scarcity shock which causes a shift in the slope of the futures price curve? We find long-run relationships between spot and futures prices, inventories and interest rates, which means that such shocks lead to an adjustment back towards a stable equilibrium. We find evidence that the adjustment is somewhat consistent with well-known theoretical models, such as Pindyck (2001); in other words, spot prices rise and then fall, while inventories are used to absorb the shock. Importantly, the pace and nature of the adjustment depends upon whether inventories were initially high or low, which introduces significant nonlinearities into the adjustment process.
Commodity Price Dynamics
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Author : Craig Pirrong
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2011-10-31
Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Commodity Markets
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Author : John Baffes
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-12-07
Commodity Markets written by John Baffes and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the economic objectives of sustainable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, food security, and the mitigation of climate change. This study is the first comprehensive analysis examining market and policy developments for all commodity groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture, over the past century. It finds that, while the quantity of commodities consumed has risen enormously, driven by population and income growth, the relative importance of commodities has shifted over time, as technological innovation created new uses for some materials and facilitated substitution among commodities. The study also shows that commodity markets are heterogeneous in terms of their drivers, price behavior, and macroeconomic impact on emerging markets and developing economies, and that the relationship between economic growth and commodity demand varies widely across countries, depending on their stage of economic development. Policy frameworks that enable countercyclical macroeconomic responses have become increasingly common—and beneficial. Other policy tools have had mixed outcomes. Discussions about commodity-exporting emerging markets are often based on ideas without empirical or analytical support. This book is a great contribution to improve our understanding of those economies, based on rigorous research. It provides robust empirical evidence including a long-term perspective on commodity prices. It also contains very thoughtful policy analysis, with implications for resilience, macroeconomic policies, and development strategies. It will be a key reference for scholars as well as policy makers. José De Gregorio Dean of the School of Economics and Business Universidad de Chile Former Minister of Economy, Mining and Energy and Former Governor of the Central Bank of Chile A sound understanding of commodity markets is more essential than ever in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy commodities. This volume offers an excellent, comprehensive, and very timely analysis of the wide range of factors that affect commodity markets. It carefully surveys historical and future trends in commodity supply, demand, and prices, and offers detailed policy proposals to avoid the havoc that turbulent commodity markets can cause on the economies of commodity exporters and importers. Rick Van der Ploeg Research Director of Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource-Rich Economies University of Oxford
Commodities
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Author : M. A. H. Dempster
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2015-11-05
Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. This book covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After an extensive theoretical and practical introduction, the book is divided into four parts: Oil Products – considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities – examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets – investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets – supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets With contributions from well-known academics and practitioners, this volume includes coverage of the fundamental theory of futures/forwards and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets. The contributions to Sections I and II of this volume, which treat storable or agricultural commodities, take speculation into account through a consideration of markets over time being either in backwardation or contango. Up-to-date considerations of both trading and investment are included in Sections I, II, and III. The book also reviews the effects of urbanization and the expanding middle-class population on commodities.
Commodity Modeling And Pricing
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Author : Peter V. Schaeffer
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-10-06
Commodity Modeling And Pricing written by Peter V. Schaeffer and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.
The Myth Of Comoving Commodity Prices
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Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1999-12-01
The Myth Of Comoving Commodity Prices written by Mr.Paul Cashin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.