The Macroeconomic Costs Of Conflict
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The Macroeconomic Costs Of Conflict
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Author : Natalija Novta
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-06-26
The Macroeconomic Costs Of Conflict written by Natalija Novta and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-26 with Social Science categories.
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. Finally, we stress that conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population. The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.
The Economic Impact Of Conflicts And The Refugee Crisis In The Middle East And North Africa
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Author : Mr.Bjoern Rother
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-09-16
The Economic Impact Of Conflicts And The Refugee Crisis In The Middle East And North Africa written by Mr.Bjoern Rother and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-16 with Social Science categories.
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
The Fiscal Cost Of Conflict Evidence From Afghanistan 2005 2016
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Author : Philip Barrett
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-09-11
The Fiscal Cost Of Conflict Evidence From Afghanistan 2005 2016 written by Philip Barrett and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-11 with Business & Economics categories.
I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.
The True Cost Of Conflict
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Author : Michael Cranna
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
The True Cost Of Conflict written by Michael Cranna and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Civil war categories.
This study examines seven recent civil and international conflicts, including the Gulf War, the struggle for independence in Kashmir, the civil wars in the Sudan and Mozambique, Indonesia's invasion of East Timor, and the guerilla war in Peru. The contributors describe the price of conflict not only in terms of deaths and injuries, but also in terms of social, economic and environmental consequences. They ask who, if anyone, really benefits from conflict. They also explore the impact of these conflicts on the Western world, and current approaches to conflict management and prevention.
The Economics Of Conflict And Peace
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Author : Jurgen Brauer
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2017-07-05
The Economics Of Conflict And Peace written by Jurgen Brauer and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-05 with Political Science categories.
This work addresses new directions in research on the economic theory of conflict, the cost of war, and the benefits of peace. A collection of 17 papers drawing on contributors from all continents, the volume is divided into four sections. The first discusses novel ways to think about the economics of conflict and peace from theory perspectives. These include discussions of conflict from the perspectives of standard neoclassical analysis and economic geography. An especially interesting paper in this section addresses conflict in the context of the emerging theory of international public finance. A second section deals with military expenditures, economic/human development and economic growth in the US and developing nations of Asia and Africa. The volume enters new territory in sections three and four. Section three contains a set of papers on the economic cost of war and war’s aftermath, significantly expanding economists’ rather modest efforts to date. Section four is concerned with how the concepts of economics might be operationalized and institutionalized to foster security.
Economic Performance Over The Conflict Cycle
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Author : Mr.Nicholas Staines
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2004-06-01
Economic Performance Over The Conflict Cycle written by Mr.Nicholas Staines and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying "conflict process" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict experience of countries that received financial assistance from the IMF and of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These findings have implications for policy and aid priorities after conflict.
The Economic Consequences Of Conflict In Sub Saharan Africa
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Author : Xiangming Fang
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-10-30
The Economic Consequences Of Conflict In Sub Saharan Africa written by Xiangming Fang and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Sub-Saharan Africa has been marred by conflicts during the past several decades. While the intensity of conflicts in recent years is lower than that observed in the 1990s, the region remains prone to conflicts, with around 30 percent of the countries affected in 2019. In addition to immeasurable human suffering, conflicts impose large economic costs. On average, annual growth in countries in intense conflicts is about 2.5 percentage points lower, and the cumulative impact on per capita GDP increases over time. Furthermore, conflicts pose significant strains on countries’ public finances, lowering revenue, raising military spending, and shifting resources away from development and social spending.
Global Macroeconomics
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Author : Richard Portes
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1987-11-13
Global Macroeconomics written by Richard Portes and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987-11-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Fiscal Consequences Of Armed Conflict And Terrorism In Low And Middle Income Countries
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Author : Shamit Chakravarti
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2002-08-01
Fiscal Consequences Of Armed Conflict And Terrorism In Low And Middle Income Countries written by Shamit Chakravarti and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-08-01 with categories.
This paper analyses the fiscal effects of armed conflict and terrorism on low- and middle-income countries. An analysis of 22 conflict episodes shows that armed conflict is associated with lower growth and higher inflation, and has adverse effects on tax revenues and investment. It also leads to higher government spending on defense, but this tends to be at the expense of macroeconomic stability rather than at the cost of lower spending on education and health. Our econometric estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that conflict and terrorism have a significant negative impact on growth through changes in the composition of government spending. On the revenue side, the fiscal accounts are affected only through reduced real economic activity. Thus there is potential for a sizable "peace dividend" for countries that are able to resolve conflict and terrorism.
Handbook On The Economics Of Conflict
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Author : Derek L. Braddon
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2011-01-01
Handbook On The Economics Of Conflict written by Derek L. Braddon and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The Handbook on the Economics of Conflict conveys how economics can contribute to the understanding of conflict in its various dimensions embracing world wars, regional conflicts, terrorism and the role of peacekeeping in conflict prevention. The economics of conflict is a relatively new branch of the discipline of economics. Conflict provides opportunities for applying game theory involving strategic behaviour, interactions and interdependence betweenadversaries. The Handbook demonstrates that conflict and its prevention is costly; it considers new dimensions such as ethnic cleansing, destructive power, terrorism, corruption, the impact of new technology, peacekeeping, the role of economists in defence ministries and the use of privatecontractors in conflict.