The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets
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The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets
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Author : Maria Sole Pagliari
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-03-07
The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets written by Maria Sole Pagliari and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.
Capital Flows To Emerging Markets
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Author : Philippe Bacchetta
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Capital Flows To Emerging Markets written by Philippe Bacchetta and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Capital movements categories.
The paper analyzes the impact of financial liberalizations and reforms in emerging markets on the dynamics of capital flows to these markets, using a simple model of international investors' behavior. We first show that the gradual nature of liberalizations, combined with the cost of absorbing large inflows in emerging economies, leads to rich dynamics of capital flows and often implies an initial period of overshooting as portfolios adjust. Asset prices will overshoot as well. Second, we show that if investors have incomplete information about new emerging markets, and learn over time, there can be high volatility of capital flows as well as contagion. Finally, we provide numerical estimates of long run capital inflows to emerging market economies and compare them to actual inflows. This gives a good indicator of upcoming crisis situations.
Capital Flows Are Fickle
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Author : Mr.John C Bluedorn
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-08-22
Capital Flows Are Fickle written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically volatile for all countries, advanced or emerging, across all points in time. This holds true across most types of flows, including bank, portfolio debt, and equity flows. Advanced economies enjoy a greater substitutability between types of inflows, and complementarity between gross inflows and outflows, than do emerging markets, which reduces the volatility of their total net inflows despite higher volatility of the components. Capital flows also exhibit low persistence, across all economies and across most types of flows. Inflows tend to rise temporarily when global financing conditions are relatively easy. These findings suggest that fickle capital flows are an unavoidable fact of life to which policymakers across all countries need to continue to manage and adapt.
International Mutual Funds Capital Flow Volatility And Contagion A Survey
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Author : Mr.R. Gelos
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-01
International Mutual Funds Capital Flow Volatility And Contagion A Survey written by Mr.R. Gelos and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Gaining a better understanding of the behavior of international investors is key for informing the debate about the optimal response to capital flows and about reforms to the international financial architecture. In this context, recent research on the behavior of international mutual funds at the micro level has expanded our knowledge about the drivers of portfolio flows and the mechanisms behind the transmission of financial shocks across countries. This paper provides a brief survey of this literature, with a focus on the empirical evidence for emerging markets. Overall, the behavior of international mutual funds is complex and overly simplistic characterizations are misleading. However, there is broad-based evidence for momentum trading among funds. Moreover, funds tend to avoid opaque markets and assets, and this behavior becomes more pronounced during volatile times. Portfolio rebalancing mechanisms are clearly important in explaining contagion patterns, even in the absence of common macroeconomic fundamentals. From a surveillance point of view, this implies that monitoring the exposures of large investors at a micro level is crucial to assess vulnerabilities.
Real Effects Of Capital Inflows In Emerging Markets
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Author : Ms.Deniz O Igan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-12-06
Real Effects Of Capital Inflows In Emerging Markets written by Ms.Deniz O Igan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
We examine the association between capital inflows and industry growth in a sample of 22 emerging market economies from 1998 to 2010. We expect more external finance dependent industries in countries that host more capital inflows to grow disproportionately faster. This is indeed the case in the pre-crisis period of 1998–2007, and is driven by debt, rather than equity, inflows. We also observe a reduction in output volatility but this association is more pronounced for equity, rather than debt, inflows. These relationships, however, break down during the crisis, hinting at the importance of an undisrupted global financial system for emerging markets to harness the growth benefits of capital inflows. In line with this observation, we also document that the inflows-growth nexus is stronger in countries with well-functioning banks.
Financial Markets Volatility And Performance In Emerging Markets
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Author : Sebastian Edwards
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2008-09-15
Financial Markets Volatility And Performance In Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Capital mobility is a double-edged sword for emerging economies, as governments must weigh the benefits of investment against the potential economic costs and political consequences of currency crises, devaluations, and instability. Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets addresses the delicate balance between capital mobility and capital controls as developing countries navigate the convoluted global network of private investors, hedge funds, large corporations, and international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund. A group of experts here examine rapidly globalizing financial markets with regard to capital flows and crises, domestic credit, international financial integration, and economic policy. Featuring detailed analyses and cross-national comparisons of countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Korea, this book will shape economists’ and policymakers’ understanding of the effectiveness of restrictions on capital mobility in the world’s most fragile economies.
Capital Flows At Risk Taming The Ebbs And Flows
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Author : Mr.R. G Gelos
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-20
Capital Flows At Risk Taming The Ebbs And Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Curbing The Boom Bust Cycle
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Author : John Williamson
language : en
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Release Date : 2005-07-30
Curbing The Boom Bust Cycle written by John Williamson and has been published by Columbia University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-07-30 with Business & Economics categories.
International investors poured vast sums of money into East Asian and Latin American countries during the mid-1990s, when the emerging market boom was at its peak. Then Thailand stumbled and panic seized the markets, and boom gave way to bust. Investors suffered large financial losses, while Asian countries suddenly experienced large capital outflows and the macroeconomic pressures these wrought plunged countries that had been growing rapidly ("miraculously") into crisis. Much the same had happened in Latin America when the debt crisis broke in 1982. This book investigates what can be done to make the international capital market a constructive force in promoting development in emerging markets. John Williamson concludes that the problem of cyclicality that has undermined the value of international borrowing cannot be tackled just, or even mainly, from the supply side, but will require actions on the part of both creditors and debtors.
Taming The Tide Of Capital Flows
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Author : Atish R. Ghosh
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2018-01-12
Taming The Tide Of Capital Flows written by Atish R. Ghosh and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-12 with Political Science categories.
A comprehensive examination of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. While always episodic in nature, capital flows to emerging market economies have been especially volatile since the global financial crisis. After peaking at $680 billion in 2007, flows to emerging markets turned negative at the onset of crisis in 2008, then rebounded only to recede again during the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade in 2011. Since then, flows have continued to swing wildly, leaving emerging market policy makers wondering whether they can put in place policies during the inflow phase that will soften the blow when flows subsequently recede. This book offers the first comprehensive treatment of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. The authors, all IMF experts, explain that, in the spirit of liberalization and deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s, many emerging market governments eliminated capital inflow controls along with outflow controls. By 2012, however, capital inflow controls were again acknowledged as legitimate policy tools. Focusing on the macroeconomic and financial-stability risks associated with capital flows, the authors combine theoretical and empirical analysis to consider the interaction between monetary, exchange rate, macroprudential, and capital control policies to mitigate these risks. They examine the effectiveness of various policy tools, discuss the practical considerations and multilateral implications of their use, and provide concrete policy advice for dealing with capital inflows.
Revisiting The Determinants Of Capital Flows To Emerging Markets A Survey Of The Evolving Literature
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Author : Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-09-28
Revisiting The Determinants Of Capital Flows To Emerging Markets A Survey Of The Evolving Literature written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper documents the evolution of gross and net capital flows to emerging market economies and surveys the large literature on the potential drivers. While the capital flow landscape has been shaped by the evolution of both global and country-specific factors, the relative importance of these factors has varied over time and differs depending on the type of capital flows. The findings from the survey of the literature thus underscores the importance of policies in both source and recipient countries in shaping capital flows.