The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets

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The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets

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Author : Maria Sole Pagliari
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-03-07

The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets written by Maria Sole Pagliari and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-07 with Business & Economics categories.

Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.

International Capital Flows

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Author : Martin Feldstein
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2007-12-01

International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets

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Author : Maria Sole Pagliari
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-03-07

The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets written by Maria Sole Pagliari and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-07 with Business & Economics categories.

Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.

The Volatility Of Capital Flows To Emerging Markets And Financial Services Trade

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Author : Roland Beck
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000

The Volatility Of Capital Flows To Emerging Markets And Financial Services Trade written by Roland Beck and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with categories.

Capital Flows To Emerging Markets

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Author : Philippe Bacchetta
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998

Capital Flows To Emerging Markets written by Philippe Bacchetta and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Capital movements categories.

The paper analyzes the impact of financial liberalizations and reforms in emerging markets on the dynamics of capital flows to these markets, using a simple model of international investors' behavior. We first show that the gradual nature of liberalizations, combined with the cost of absorbing large inflows in emerging economies, leads to rich dynamics of capital flows and often implies an initial period of overshooting as portfolios adjust. Asset prices will overshoot as well. Second, we show that if investors have incomplete information about new emerging markets, and learn over time, there can be high volatility of capital flows as well as contagion. Finally, we provide numerical estimates of long run capital inflows to emerging market economies and compare them to actual inflows. This gives a good indicator of upcoming crisis situations.

Capital Flows Are Fickle

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Author : Mr.John C Bluedorn
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-08-23

Capital Flows Are Fickle written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-23 with Business & Economics categories.

Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically volatile for all countries, advanced or emerging, across all points in time. This holds true across most types of flows, including bank, portfolio debt, and equity flows. Advanced economies enjoy a greater substitutability between types of inflows, and complementarity between gross inflows and outflows, than do emerging markets, which reduces the volatility of their total net inflows despite higher volatility of the components. Capital flows also exhibit low persistence, across all economies and across most types of flows. Inflows tend to rise temporarily when global financing conditions are relatively easy. These findings suggest that fickle capital flows are an unavoidable fact of life to which policymakers across all countries need to continue to manage and adapt.

Capital Flows And The Emerging Economies

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Author : Sebastian Edwards
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2008-04-15

Capital Flows And The Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.

The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.

Real Effects Of Capital Inflows In Emerging Markets

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Author : Ms.Deniz O Igan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-12-06

Real Effects Of Capital Inflows In Emerging Markets written by Ms.Deniz O Igan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

We examine the association between capital inflows and industry growth in a sample of 22 emerging market economies from 1998 to 2010. We expect more external finance dependent industries in countries that host more capital inflows to grow disproportionately faster. This is indeed the case in the pre-crisis period of 1998–2007, and is driven by debt, rather than equity, inflows. We also observe a reduction in output volatility but this association is more pronounced for equity, rather than debt, inflows. These relationships, however, break down during the crisis, hinting at the importance of an undisrupted global financial system for emerging markets to harness the growth benefits of capital inflows. In line with this observation, we also document that the inflows-growth nexus is stronger in countries with well-functioning banks.

Capital Flows And The Behavior Of Emerging Market Equity Returns

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Author : Geert Bekaert
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998

Capital Flows And The Behavior Of Emerging Market Equity Returns written by Geert Bekaert and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Capital movements categories.

Foreign portfolio flows may reflect deep changes in the functioning of an emerging market economy and its capital markets. Using a database of monthly net U.S. equity flows, we investigate the relation of these flows to the behavior of equity returns, the structural characteristics of the capital markets, exchange rates, and the strength of the economy. We find that increases in equity flows are associated with a lower cost of capital, higher correlation with world market returns, lower asset concentration, lower inflation, larger market size relative to GDP, more trade, and slightly higher per capita economic growth.

Capital Flows At Risk Taming The Ebbs And Flows

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Author : Mr.R. G Gelos
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-20

Capital Flows At Risk Taming The Ebbs And Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.