The Will To Predict
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Predictive Analytics
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Author : Eric Siegel
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-01-13
Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-13 with Business & Economics categories.
"Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.
How To Predict Everything
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Author : William Poundstone
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2019-06-06
How To Predict Everything written by William Poundstone and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-06 with Mathematics categories.
How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?
I Predict
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Author : Thomas Horn
language : en
Publisher: Defender
Release Date : 2016-06
I Predict written by Thomas Horn and has been published by Defender this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-06 with Religion categories.
Over the last few decades, celebrated theorists and philosophers have increasingly contemplated the future of humanity through a predictive lens--the meaning and purpose of our existence in light of the Bible's end-times narrative. Is it possible that ancient prophets actually foresaw how the world would come to an end and how final salvation--including judgment of the nations--would precisely transpire? In this wide-ranging and authoritative work, recognized experts from around the globe examine extraordinary developments currently playing out in geopolitics, science and technology, discovery, and even the supernatural, under the microscope of Scripture. The magnitude of individual choices and opportunities that lie just ahead, these experts say, will soon impact all of our lives in unprecedented ways.NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME, IN "I PREDICT" YOU WILL...*Discern the facts behind whether the Ark of the Covenant has been found*Learn about the Final Roman Emperor and the Vatican's Last Crusade*Finally understand the truth behind the Islamic Mahdi and the secrets of Apollyon*Witness efforts now underway that could lead to the Third Jewish Temple*Discover a hidden agenda that may force mankind into an epic World War*Determine how to prepare for a coming global monetary collapse*Read why some believe we are about to witness angels everywhere*Study the phenomenal prediction involving the next Great Awakening*Examine the case for a coming Global World Government*Grasp the arrival of amazing technology that will transform literally everythingContributing authors: Dr. Thomas Horn, Joel Richardson, Mark Biltz, Carl Gallups, Josh Tolley, Derek Gilbert, Josh Peck, Larry Spargimino, Troy Anderson, Dr. Gordon McDonald, Sharon Gilbert, Paul McGuire
The Will To Predict
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Author : Eglė Rindzevičiūtė
language : en
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Release Date : 2023-05-15
The Will To Predict written by Eglė Rindzevičiūtė and has been published by Cornell University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-15 with History categories.
In The Will to Predict, Eglė Rindzevičiūtė demonstrates how the logic of scientific expertise cannot be properly understood without knowing the conceptual and institutional history of scientific prediction. She notes that predictions of future population, economic growth, environmental change, and scientific and technological innovation have shaped much of twentieth and twenty-first-century politics and social life, as well as government policies. Today, such predictions are more necessary than ever as the world undergoes dramatic environmental, political, and technological change. But, she asks, what does it mean to predict scientifically? What are the limits of scientific prediction and what are its effects on governance, institutions, and society? Her intellectual and political history of scientific prediction takes as its example twentieth-century USSR. By outlining the role of prediction in a range of governmental contexts, from economic and social planning to military strategy, she shows that the history of scientific prediction is a transnational one, part of the history of modern science and technology as well as governance. Going beyond the Soviet case, Rindzevičiūtė argues that scientific predictions are central for organizing uncertainty through the orchestration of knowledge and action. Bridging the fields of political sociology, organization studies, and history, The Will to Predict considers what makes knowledge scientific and how such knowledge has impacted late modern governance.
The Education We Need For A Future We Can T Predict
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Author : Thomas Hatch
language : en
Publisher: Corwin Press
Release Date : 2021-01-19
The Education We Need For A Future We Can T Predict written by Thomas Hatch and has been published by Corwin Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-01-19 with Education categories.
Improve Schools and Transform Education In order for educational systems to change, we must reevaluate deep-seated beliefs about learning, teaching, schooling, and race that perpetuate inequitable opportunities and outcomes. Hatch, Corson, and Gerth van den Berg challenge the narrative when it comes to the "grammar of schooling"--or the conventional structures, practices, and beliefs that define educational experiences for so many children—to cast a new vision of what school could be. The book addresses current systemic problems and solutions as it: Highlights global examples of successful school change Describes strategies that improve educational opportunities and performance Explores promising approaches in developing new learning opportunities Outlines conditions for supporting wide-scale educational improvement This provocative book approaches education reform by highlighting what works, while also demonstrating what can be accomplished if we redefine conventional schools. We can make the schools we have more efficient, more effective, and more equitable, all while creating powerful opportunities to support all aspects of students’ development. "You won’t find a better book on system change in education than this one. We learn why schools don’t change; how they can improve; what it takes to change a system; and, in the final analysis, the possibilities of system change. Above all, The Education We Need renders complexity into clarity as the writing is so clear and compelling. A powerful read on a topic of utmost importance." ~Michael Fullan, Professor Emeritus, OISE/Universtiy of Toronto "I cannot recommend this book highly enough – Tom tackles long-standing and emerging educational issues in new ways with an impressive understanding of the challenging complexities, but also feasible possibilities, for ensuring excellence and equity for all students." ~Carol Campbell, Associate Professor, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto
Predicting The Unpredictable
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Author : Susan Elizabeth Hough
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2016-11-08
Predicting The Unpredictable written by Susan Elizabeth Hough and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-08 with Science categories.
Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.
Superforecasting
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Crown
Release Date : 2015-09-29
Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Crown this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-29 with Business & Economics categories.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Llewellyn S Complete Book Of Predictive Astrology
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Author : Kris Brandt Riske
language : en
Publisher: Llewellyn + Orm
Release Date : 2011-11-08
Llewellyn S Complete Book Of Predictive Astrology written by Kris Brandt Riske and has been published by Llewellyn + Orm this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-08 with Body, Mind & Spirit categories.
Being able to forecast your future gives you a remarkable edge. Whether it's taking advantage of approaching opportunities or preparing for challenges that are heading your way, predictive astrology helps you maximize your innate potential—and make choices that will lead to a more satisfying life. The perfect companion to Llewellyn's Complete Book of Astrology, popular astrologer Kris Brandt Riske lends her signature easy-to-understand style to this definitive guide to predictive astrology. Step by step, she lays out clear instructions for performing each major predictive technique, including solar arcs, progressions, transits, lunar cycles, and planetary returns. She also provides a basic introduction to horary astrology, the method used to obtain answers to specific questions. Discover how to read all elements of a predictive chart and pinpoint when changes in your career, relationships, finances, and other important areas of life are on the horizon. To make learning even easier, this astrology book includes examples that illustrate major events in the lives of the author's clients as well as celebrities such as Marilyn Monroe, Jimmy Carter, Martha Stewart, and Pamela Anderson.
Time Predictions
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Author : Torleif Halkjelsvik
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-02-28
Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Predict Your Future
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Author : Elizabeth Clare Prophet
language : en
Publisher: SCB Distributors
Release Date : 2020-11-11
Predict Your Future written by Elizabeth Clare Prophet and has been published by SCB Distributors this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-11 with Body, Mind & Spirit categories.
"Is it really possible to predict your future? As we look at the universe around us, we see a rhythm to all of life. We discover that all things move in cycles. The law of cycles governs both the spiritual and material universes, for our world is a reflection of the world beyond, of higher realms, of spiritual dimensions. In this groundbreaking work, Elizabeth Clare Prophet shows how you can apply the law of cycles to your own life through a science known as the Cosmic Clock. This science will help you chart the cycles of your karma, the cause-and-effect sequences in your life, just as it will allow you to map the inner dimensions of your dharma, your duty to fulfill your reason for being. This is not predestination. But you can, by charting your personal Cosmic Clock, learn to see the patterns in your life and prepare for the challenges and the opportunities that come your way each day. Equipped with the powerful tools and techniques revealed in this book, you can make the most of your future and be the master of your fate, your cycles, your destiny. Includes 60 figures and illustrations, many in color."