Theory And Methods For Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking
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Theory And Methods For Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007
Theory And Methods For Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
Analysis Analysis Practices And Implications For Modeling And Simulation
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007
Analysis Analysis Practices And Implications For Modeling And Simulation written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Technology & Engineering categories.
An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.
Implications Of Modern Decision Science For Military Decision Support Systems
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2005-09-14
Implications Of Modern Decision Science For Military Decision Support Systems written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-09-14 with Technology & Engineering categories.
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Portfolio Analysis Methods For Assessing Capability Options
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2008
Portfolio Analysis Methods For Assessing Capability Options written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with History categories.
The research reported in this monograph is part of RAND's continuing work on practical theory and methods for capabilities-based planning in the Department of Defense (DoD) and other organizations. Its particular contribution is to describe and illustrate in some detail an analytic framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews including DoD's experimental Concept Decision Reviews and related evaluations of alternatives (Krieg, 2007). The monograph also describes newly developed enabling tools -- one for generating and screening preliminary options and one for evaluating in a portfolio-analysis structure those options that pass screening. Variants of the methods can be applied for analysis across capability areas or for strategic-level defense planning, i.e., force planning to establish the overall mix and balance of capabilities. Finally, the monograph illustrates concepts with applications to the capability areas of Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).
Philosophy East West
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Author : Oren Ergas
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-01-26
Philosophy East West written by Oren Ergas and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-26 with Philosophy categories.
Philosophy East/West showcases new scholarship in the philosophy of education and contemplative studies, paying particular attention to the intersection of mindfulness, evidence-based science, and wisdom traditions. Moves beyond simplistic explanations of “Eastern” and “Western” to explore the complexity and diversity of various wisdom traditions Investigates the effect of mindfulness-based curricular interventions on current educational theory and practice Uses insights from important Western philosophers—including Heidegger, Levinas, and Foucault—to situate contemplative practice within contemporary educational theory Emphasizes the importance of transcultural and intercultural approaches in the philosophy of education
U S Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2015-01-02
U S Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-02 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.
Scientific Support For The Decision Making In The Security Sector
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Author : Ognyan Kounchev
language : en
Publisher: IOS Press
Release Date : 2007
Scientific Support For The Decision Making In The Security Sector written by Ognyan Kounchev and has been published by IOS Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
Security environment is characterized by deep uncertainty. Threats are being posed not only by adversary (political) forces but may also come from natural challenges. This title reflects the initial state of a dialogue between specialists in security and specialists in mathematics, computer and information sciences on security topics.
Enabling Technologies For Simulation Science X
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Author : Dawn A. Trevisani
language : en
Publisher: SPIE-International Society for Optical Engineering
Release Date : 2006
Enabling Technologies For Simulation Science X written by Dawn A. Trevisani and has been published by SPIE-International Society for Optical Engineering this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Computers categories.
Proceedings of SPIE present the original research papers presented at SPIE conferences and other high-quality conferences in the broad-ranging fields of optics and photonics. These books provide prompt access to the latest innovations in research and technology in their respective fields. Proceedings of SPIE are among the most cited references in patent literature.
Implications Of Modern Decision Science For Military Decision Support Systems
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2005
Implications Of Modern Decision Science For Military Decision Support Systems written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Computers categories.
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Evaluation Of Human Work
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Author : John R. Wilson
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2015-04-16
Evaluation Of Human Work written by John R. Wilson and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-16 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Written by experts with real-world experience in applying ergonomics methodology in a range of contexts, Evaluation of Human Work, Fourth Edition explores ergonomics and human factors from a "doing it" perspective. More than a cookbook of ergonomics methods, the book encourages students to think about which methods they should apply, when, and why.