Thinking Probabilistically
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Thinking Probabilistically
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Author : Ariel Amir
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2020-12-17
Thinking Probabilistically written by Ariel Amir and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-17 with Mathematics categories.
An introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.
Embracing Uncertainty The Revolutionary Science Of Stress Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking
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Author : Gaurav Garg
language : en
Publisher: Gaurav Garg
Release Date : 2024-08-22
Embracing Uncertainty The Revolutionary Science Of Stress Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking written by Gaurav Garg and has been published by Gaurav Garg this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-08-22 with Mathematics categories.
In a world obsessed with certainty, this book dares to embrace the unknown. "Dancing with Uncertainty" isn't just a catchy title—it's a revolutionary approach to navigating the complexities of modern life. Within these pages, you'll discover how to harness the power of probabilistic thinking to make better decisions, manage risks, and find opportunities where others see only chaos. From the boardroom to the bedroom, from financial investments to personal relationships, this book will transform the way you view the world. Key concepts you'll explore include: The Probabilistic Mindset: Learn to see life as a series of probabilities rather than absolutes. The 60/40 Rule: A practical guide to decision-making in uncertain situations. Expected Value Calculations: Maximize your 'life ROI' by understanding the true value of your choices. The Monte Carlo Method: Simulate multiple futures to prepare for any outcome. Bayesian Thinking: Update your beliefs intelligently as new information comes to light. But this isn't just a dry textbook. It's filled with real-life examples, practical exercises, and even a dash of humor. You'll learn from poker players, stock traders, meteorologists, and everyday people who've used probabilistic thinking to achieve extraordinary results. "In an uncertain world, the only mistake is to be unprepared. This book is your guide to turning uncertainty into your greatest advantage." Whether you're a CEO making high-stakes decisions, a student planning your future, or simply someone looking to navigate life with more confidence, "Dancing with Uncertainty" offers a new lens through which to view the world. So, are you ready to embrace the power of probability? To see opportunities where others see only risk? To dance with uncertainty and lead a richer, more calculated life? Open this book, and take your first step into a larger, more probabilistic world.
Think Straight
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Author : Jon Guy
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2022-10-31
Think Straight written by Jon Guy and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-31 with Psychology categories.
Put simply, Think Straight is an owner’s manual for the human brain. Drawing from the vast history of scientific and cognitive research, this book is a tour de force through the science and philosophy of the human mind, and what it means to think as a rational human being in the 21st century. Our world is awash in mis- and disinformation, baseless conspiracy theories, New Age ideology, anti-science propaganda, and all manner of magical thinking. Pseudo-experts fill the airwaves with false and bogus claims, news media twist and spin information to suit their ends, celebrities and corporations push evidence-free beliefs on their followers, and politicians continue to mislead the masses with false promises and bad thinking. In careful detail, author Jon Guy investigates the art of thinking critically, offering readers the ability to empower themselves and our society at large. In order to think critically, we must also learn what it means to know, what knowledge is, how to investigate, how to question, and how everything from computer algorithms written by geniuses to psychological traits embedded in us from our evolutionary origins conspire to construct a model of reality that we have much reason to doubt. The human mind is not only the most powerful and complex structure ever discovered, it is also riddled with a host of flaws, shortcomings, errors, and limitations, most of which none of us are ever made aware of. Critical thinking is the ability to both capitalize on the strengths and power of human cognition, as well as understand and combat the error-prone nature of our brains. Think Straight encourages us to accept that not everything we think is true and explores how we can compensate for the many errors of our minds. Backed by the best available research and data, and written in clear and decisive language, Think Straight provides readers with the proper guidance and tools to improve your thinking, inform your decisions, avoid fraud and deceit, and make the world a better place to live and prosper.
Hbr Guide To Critical Thinking
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Author : Harvard Business Review
language : en
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
Release Date : 2023-01-31
Hbr Guide To Critical Thinking written by Harvard Business Review and has been published by Harvard Business Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Tackle complex situations with critical thinking. You're facing a problem at work. There are many ways you can approach the situation, but each comes with its own pros and cons. How do you sort through all the information so that you know you're taking the right path? The answer is in how you think. The HBR Guide to Critical Thinking will help you navigate your most challenging issues, from difficult problems to tough decisions to complex scenarios. By carefully observing the situation, gathering information, inviting other perspectives, and analyzing what's in front of you, you can move forward with confidence while building this crucial leadership skill. You'll learn how to: Question your assumptions Keep an open mind to opposing viewpoints Sidestep cognitive biases Use data—when appropriate Grow comfortable with ambiguity Find innovative and creative solutions Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.
Research On Reasoning With Data And Statistical Thinking International Perspectives
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Author : Gail F. Burrill
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-07-21
Research On Reasoning With Data And Statistical Thinking International Perspectives written by Gail F. Burrill and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-21 with Education categories.
This book is derived from selected papers from the Fourteenth International Congress on Mathematical Education Topic Study Group 12, Teaching and Learning Statistics. It describes recent research on curriculum, pedagogy and outreach initiatives from countries as diverse as Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The book has a focus on the use of data in the teaching and learning of statistics across grade levels and begins with an overview of the status of statistics education and the use of data from seven different countries across the continents and the link between research and practice in those countries. Because it contains specific examples of the research, for example, on the ways children learn, the choice and implementation of tasks, or the role of informal inference, the book will be a great resource to those interested and involved in the teaching of statistics, curriculum developers, and statistics education researchers.
The Ten Equations That Rule The World
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Author : David Sumpter
language : en
Publisher: Flatiron Books
Release Date : 2021-08-24
The Ten Equations That Rule The World written by David Sumpter and has been published by Flatiron Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-08-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Is there a secret formula for getting rich? For going viral? For deciding how long to stick with your current job, Netflix series, or even relationship? This book is all about the equations that make our world go round. Ten of them, in fact. They are integral to everything from investment banking to betting companies and social media giants. And they can help you to increase your chance of success, guard against financial loss, live more healthfully, and see through scaremongering. They are known by only the privileged few - until now. With wit and clarity, mathematician David Sumpter shows that it isn't the technical details that make these formulas so successful. It is the way they allow mathematicians to view problems from a different angle - a way of seeing the world that anyone can learn. Empowering and illuminating, The Ten Equations shows how math really can change your life.
Cognition And Chance
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Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2004-06-24
Cognition And Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This book presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educational assumptions about the statistical or probable characteristics of a situation. The book can be used as a supplemental text in courses on probability, logic, statistics,
The Art Of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Charles Yoe
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2025-09-04
The Art Of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Charles Yoe and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-09-04 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Uncertainty is a part of every decision we make, from the everyday to the high-stakes, from personal choices to professional strategy. The Art of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty offers a clear, practical approach to dealing with the unknown without getting stuck or overwhelmed. Rather than treating uncertainty as a barrier, this book invites readers to see it as a constant companion—something to work with, not work against. Drawing on proven tools, real-world examples, and a wealth of practical insight, it shows how to make thoughtful, informed decisions even when information is incomplete, priorities are competing, and the path forward feels anything but clear. This is not a theory-heavy treatise. It’s a textbook guide for real people facing real decisions. Grounded in decision science but written for a broad audience, it bridges the gap between technical complexity and everyday practicality. Whether you’re leading a team, managing risk, shaping policy, or simply trying to make better personal choices, this book meets you where you are—with tools that work, language that makes sense, and encouragement to move forward with clarity and confidence. Inside you’ll find: Straightforward frameworks to help you recognize and manage different types of uncertainty Practical tools and techniques you can use right away to make sound decisions in fast-moving or high-pressure situations Case studies and examples that bring the concepts to life and show how they apply in work, leadership, and daily life Fresh perspectives on failure, bias, and risk, helping you not only avoid common pitfalls but turn setbacks into sources of insight If you’ve ever hesitated at a crossroads, second-guessed a big decision, or wished for more clarity in a world that rarely offers it, this book is for you. The Art of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty is your companion in making better choices when certainty is out of reach but a good decision is still within your grasp.
The Yellow Pad
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Author : Robert E. Rubin
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2023-05-16
The Yellow Pad written by Robert E. Rubin and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Robert Rubin, former secretary of the Treasury and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares thoughts on decision-making developed over more than six decades in markets, business, government, and politics, and offers readers an astute and original guide for navigating uncertain times In 1958, as a college sophomore, Robert Rubin took a class that changed his life. The class was introduction to philosophy, and the professor, Raphael Demos, instilled in his students an idea that was simple yet profound: There is no such thing as certainty. For Rubin, this led to a critically important question: How can we make sound decisions in a fundamentally uncertain world? While serving in some of the most significant roles in markets, business, and government, Rubin has grappled with that question. Time and again, when faced with a high-stakes decision, he turned to his most trusted tool: a simple yellow legal pad. Rubin’s yellow pad (or more recently, his iPad) became an expression of a larger decision-making philosophy that has both lasted and shaped a lifetime. In The Yellow Pad, Rubin lays out that philosophy with depth and detail, and presents a compelling intellectual framework for confronting some of the most difficult issues we face today. The Yellow Pad contains a former Treasury secretary’s approach to economic policymaking. A former Goldman Sachs senior partner’s approach to personal investing and understanding risk. A former director of the National Economic Council’s approach to managing people in both private- and public-sector organizations. And much more. Yet despite his lifetime of experiences, Rubin remains refreshingly open-minded, interested in exploring ideas rather than promoting ideologies. With its combination of wisdom and relevance, The Yellow Pad is an essential guide for anyone looking to make better decisions in life, work, and public policy.